Key Drivers of Long-Term Rates of Mortality Improvements in the United States: Period, Cohort, and Cause of Death Analysis, 1959–2016

Figures & data

TABLE 1 Years of ICD Regimes

Regime	ICD-7	ICD-8	ICD-9	ICD-10
Years	1959–1967	1968–1978	1979–1998	1999–2016

TABLE 2 Cause of Death Groupings and Age–Standardized Death Rate for Selected Years

Level 1	Level 2	HMD cause groups	ASDR female			ASDR male
			1959	2016	%Change	1959	2016	%Change
All-cause			1353.03	757.73	–44.00	1507.75	788.94	–47.67
Circulatory diseases			867.84	230.53	–73.44	882.93	237.47	–73.10
	Ischemic heart disease	47	377.57	85.48	–77.36	499.56	116.42	–76.70
	CVD and stroke	51	220.58	46.59	–78.88	169.38	32.86	–80.60
	Other circulatory system diseases	45, 46, 48, 49, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55	269.69	98.46	–63.49	213.99	88.19	–58.79
Neoplasms			199.40	163.95	–17.77	222.60	180.04	–19.12
	Bowel cancer	13, 14	34.33	14.30	–58.34	30.64	15.76	–48.54
	Liver cancer	15	9.56	6.23	–34.84	7.45	10.90	46.28
	Lung cancer	18	7.72	38.03	392.79	44.02	44.80	1.77
	Breast cancer	20	35.98	23.60	–34.42	0.35	0.26	–25.59
	Prostate cancer	24				25.48	16.55	–35.05
	Other cancers	17, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32	84.40	64.02	–24.14	67.11	64.77	–3.49
	Other digestive organ cancers	10, 11, 12, 16	27.42	17.78	–35.16	47.57	27.00	–43.23
Respiratory diseases			61.13	76.58	25.27	83.52	71.30	–14.63
	Influenza and pneumonia	56, 58	48.00	14.86	–69.03	51.21	13.75	–73.15
	Chronic lower respiratory disease	59, 60, 61	7.52	45.81	509.23	22.34	40.13	79.61
	Other respiratory diseases	57, 62	5.61	15.91	183.31	9.96	17.43	74.89
Digestive system			40.17	28.27	–29.63	55.13	32.27	–41.46
	Gastric and duodenal ulcer	63	4.97	0.88	–82.27	12.99	0.93	–92.87
	Chronic liver disease	65	9.42	8.54	–9.33	18.50	15.23	–17.69
	Other digestive system diseases	64, 66	25.78	18.84	–26.91	23.64	16.12	–31.80
External causes			56.33	44.75	–20.55	114.11	98.00	–14.12
	Traffic accidents	84	12.05	3.93	–67.40	36.34	10.75	–70.42
	Self–harm and interpersonal violence	89, 90	7.98	8.58	7.53	28.32	31.04	9.61
	Other external causes	85, 86, 87, 88, 91, 92	36.30	32.24	–11.18	49.46	56.21	13.66
Other			128.17	213.65	66.70	149.46	169.85	13.65
	AIDS and tuberculosis	1, 8	4.65	1.10	–76.41	12.39	3.00	–75.76
	Diabetes and obesity	34, 35	28.58	22.63	–20.81	18.57	27.03	45.58
	Alcohol abuse and drug dependence	37, 38	0.67	2.04	206.68	3.08	5.82	88.95
	Alzheimer’s disease	42		45.08			18.99
	Dementia and other mental disorders	39	1.63	44.12	2603.21	1.12	21.29	1800.06
	Rest of causes	2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 44, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83	92.64	98.68	6.52	114.30	93.72	–18.01

TABLE 3 Risk Factors and Drivers of Mortality Change Groupings

Risk factor	Associated cause of death	HMD Cause groups	ASDR female			ASDR male
			1959	2016	%Change	1959	2016	%Change
AIDS and tuberculosis	AIDS and tuberculosis	1, 8	4.65	1.10	–76.41	12.39	3.00	–75.76
Alcohol abuse	Alcohol abuse and poisoning, chronic liver disease	37, 65, 86	10.11	10.16	0.49	21.86	20.69	–5.34
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease	Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease	39, 42, 80	7.87	90.73	1052.71	4.29	40.96	855.79
Diabetes and obesity	Diabetes and obesity	34, 35	28.58	22.63	–20.81	18.57	27.03	45.58
Drug dependency	Drug dependency	38, 87	1.08	11.85	992.35	2.01	25.50	1165.68
Homicide	Homicide	90	2.44	2.37	–2.71	7.70	9.66	25.38
Hypertensive disease	Hypertensive disease	48	92.57	24.09	–73.98	65.02	22.25	–65.78
Self–harm	Self–harm	89	5.55	6.21	12.03	20.61	21.38	3.71
Smoking	Lung cancer	18	7.72	38.03	392.79	44.02	44.80	1.77

FIGURE 1. Age-Standardized Death Rate for Selected Risk Factors, 1959–2016.

FIGURE 2. Period Life Expectancy at Age 20, 1959–2016.

FIGURE 3. Life Expectancy Decomposition for Major Causes between 1959 and 2016.

FIGURE 4. Fitted Parameters for the PCi Model for All Causes of Death, Females, 1959–2016, Ages 20–89.

FIGURE 5. Fitted Parameters for the PCi Model for Mortality from Hypertensive Disease, Females, 1959–2016, Ages 20–89.

FIGURE 6. Smooth Improvement Stripes for Causes of Death, Females, 1959–2016, Ages 20–89.

FIGURE 7. Smooth Improvement Stripes for Causes of Death, Males, 1959–2016, Ages 20–89.

FIGURE 8. Smooth Improvement Stripes for Risk Factors, 1959–2016, Ages 20–89.

TABLE 4 Summary of Contribution to Life Expectancy Change at Age 20 for Different Subperiods

Cause	Study period		Subperiods
	1959–2016		1959–1970		1970–1980		1980–1995		1995–2010		2010–2016
	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male
All-cause	6.31	7.44	0.93	–0.24	2.18	2.19	1.15	2.06	1.87	3.42	0.18	0.01
Circulatory diseases	6.29	6.23	0.99	0.45	1.8	1.74	1.63	1.94	1.65	1.92	0.22	0.18
Ischemic heart disease	3.34	4.31	–0.35	–0.26	1.07	1.26	1.2	1.6	1.18	1.46	0.24	0.25
CVD and stroke	1.65	1.08	0.31	0.15	0.6	0.4	0.37	0.24	0.33	0.27	0.03	0.02
Other circulatory system diseases	1.3	0.84	1.03	0.56	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.1	0.14	0.19	–0.05	–0.09
Neoplasms	0.85	1.04	0.07	–0.21	–0.04	–0.11	–0.04	0.19	0.63	0.83	0.24	0.34
Bowel cancer	0.28	0.18	0.04	0	0.05	0.01	0.08	0.05	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03
Liver cancer	0.03	–0.06	0.05	0.03	–0.01	–0.01	0	–0.02	–0.01	–0.04	–0.01	–0.01
Lung cancer	–0.32	0.32	–0.11	–0.22	–0.19	–0.11	–0.24	0.1	0.09	0.36	0.12	0.19
Breast cancer	0.25	0	–0.03	0	0.02	0	0.04	0	0.18	0.01	0.04	0
Prostate cancer	0	0.13	0	0	0	–0.01	0	–0.01	0.01	0.13	0	0.03
Other cancers	0.5	0.25	0.08	–0.06	0.07	–0.04	0.05	0.02	0.25	0.23	0.06	0.09
Other digestive organ cancers	0.12	0.21	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.05	0	0.01
Respiratory diseases	–0.23	0.27	–0.04	–0.15	0.06	0.16	–0.27	0.03	0.02	0.18	0	0.04
Influenza and pneumonia	0.27	0.31	0.01	–0.02	0.19	0.21	–0.01	0.02	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02
Chronic lower respiratory disease	–0.4	–0.03	–0.02	–0.07	–0.12	–0.1	–0.23	0.01	–0.03	0.1	0.01	0.03
Other respiratory diseases	–0.11	–0.01	–0.03	–0.05	–0.01	0.05	–0.03	0	–0.02	–0.01	–0.02	–0.01
Digestive system	0.18	0.27	–0.04	–0.07	0.1	0.13	0.12	0.17	0.03	0.06	–0.03	–0.02
Gastric and duodenal ulcer	0.05	0.12	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0	0
Chronic liver disease	0.03	0.06	–0.07	–0.11	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.1	0	0.03	–0.03	–0.03
Other digestive system diseases	0.1	0.09	0.02	–0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.01	0	0.01
External causes	–0.13	–0.08	–0.15	–0.35	0.17	0.21	0.14	0.45	–0.11	0.04	–0.17	–0.44
Traffic accidents	0.14	0.44	–0.06	–0.09	0.13	0.31	0.03	0.15	0.05	0.08	0	–0.01
Self–harm and interpersonal violence	–0.01	–0.11	–0.08	–0.16	0.03	–0.06	0.06	0.1	0.02	0.09	–0.03	–0.08
Other external causes	–0.26	–0.42	–0.02	–0.1	0.02	–0.03	0.06	0.2	–0.18	–0.13	–0.14	–0.35
Other	–0.66	–0.29	0.11	0.09	0.09	0.06	–0.44	–0.73	–0.35	0.38	–0.08	–0.09
AIDS and tuberculosis	0.06	0.12	0.05	0.08	0	0.02	–0.14	–0.59	0.13	0.58	0.01	0.03
Diabetes and obesity	0.1	–0.09	0	–0.03	0.1	0.04	–0.06	–0.07	0.07	0.01	–0.01	–0.04
Alcohol abuse and drug dependence	–0.03	–0.04	–0.01	–0.03	–0.01	0	0	0.01	0	0.02	–0.02	–0.03
Alzheimer’s disease	–0.34	–0.12	0	0	–0.01	–0.01	–0.12	–0.05	–0.13	–0.04	–0.08	–0.02
Dementia and other mental disorders	–0.29	–0.13	0	0	–0.04	–0.02	–0.03	–0.01	–0.27	–0.13	0.05	0.03
Rest of causes	–0.16	–0.02	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	–0.09	–0.01	–0.16	–0.06	–0.04	–0.06

TABLE 5 Departure of Mortality Improvement Rates from the Overall Average, by Subperiods and Causes of Death

Cause	Average improvement		Subperiod improvement above average
	Female	Male	1959–1970		1970–1980		1980–1995		1995–2010		2010–2016
			Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male
All-cause	1.04%	1.1%	–0.19%	–0.93%	1.17%	0.96%	–0.35%	–0.09%	0.02%	0.45%	–0.78%	–0.78%
Circulatory diseases	2.21%	2.01%	–0.63%	–1.39%	1.1%	0.92%	–0.3%	0.18%	0.56%	0.82%	–1.33%	–1.47%
Ischemic heart disease	2.63%	2.58%	–2%	–2.01%	0.44%	0.58%	–0.39%	0.26%	1.39%	1.1%	0.46%	–0.68%
CVD and stroke	2.97%	2.65%	–0.37%	–1.33%	2.26%	2.26%	–0.52%	–0.53%	0.18%	0.74%	–2.21%	–1.83%
Other circulatory system diseases	1.05%	0.55%	1.93%	0.59%	0.58%	0.11%	–0.56%	–0.1%	–0.3%	0.42%	–2.35%	–2.05%
Neoplasms	0.82%	0.78%	0.5%	–0.56%	–0.12%	–0.48%	–0.54%	–0.29%	0.29%	0.82%	–0.09%	0.51%
Bowel cancer	1.25%	0.8%	–0.15%	–1.1%	–0.7%	–1.39%	–0.22%	–0.33%	0.6%	1.51%	0.49%	1.38%
Liver cancer	0.45%	–0.91%	2%	1.27%	1.5%	0.73%	–0.62%	–1%	–0.96%	–0.51%	–2.22%	0.25%
Lung cancer	–1.51%	0.6%	–1.54%	–1.46%	–1.83%	–0.82%	–0.23%	0.06%	1.58%	0.95%	2.49%	1.52%
Breast cancer	1.03%	–	–0.46%	–	–0.34%	–	–0.28%	–	0.85%	–	–0.02%	–
Prostate cancer	–	1.17%	–	–0.19%	–	–1.2%	–	–1.55%	–	2.19%	–	0.75%
Other cancers	1.13%	0.68%	1.07%	–0.17%	0.56%	0.17%	–0.68%	–0.39%	–0.11%	0.42%	–0.92%	–0.03%
Other digestive organ cancers	0.85%	0.98%	0.7%	0.52%	0.26%	0.28%	0.02%	0.03%	–0.34%	–0.23%	–0.91%	–0.9%
Respiratory diseases	–0.38%	0.56%	0.07%	–0.68%	1.04%	1.59%	–1.74%	–0.62%	0.86%	0.24%	0.33%	–0.45%
Influenza and pneumonia	1.16%	1.44%	0.69%	0.13%	2.46%	2.11%	–2.5%	–1.92%	0.67%	0.78%	–0.78%	–0.9%
Chronic lower respiratory disease	–0.11%	1.2%	0.96%	–1.88%	4.56%	6.83%	–2.81%	–1.64%	–0.69%	–1.12%	–0.61%	–1.05%
Other respiratory diseases	–2.01%	–1.4%	1.79%	2.53%	–5.02%	–5.33%	0.6%	1.08%	1.41%	0.81%	0.06%	–0.48%
Digestive system	1.15%	1.14%	–0.74%	–1.33%	2.66%	2.01%	0.5%	0.81%	–0.68%	–0.34%	–2.62%	–2.07%
Gastric and duodenal ulcer	3.93%	4.93%	0.14%	1.04%	1.75%	3.61%	–1.06%	–1.43%	1.21%	0.46%	–3.57%	–5.48%
Chronic liver disease	0.24%	0.41%	–1.85%	–2.86%	3.15%	2.19%	1.91%	1.88%	–0.75%	0.08%	–4.76%	–3.3%
Other digestive system diseases	1.36%	1.12%	0.39%	–0.72%	2.59%	1.83%	–0.53%	0.15%	–1%	–0.68%	–1.2%	–0.41%
External causes	0.05%	0.44%	–2.31%	–2.06%	2.97%	2.76%	1.68%	1.52%	–1.01%	–0.59%	–2.36%	–3.15%
Traffic accidents	1.36%	1.51%	–3.96%	–3.05%	2.9%	3.09%	–0.83%	1.15%	1.38%	–0.64%	1.06%	–0.83%
Self–harm and interpersonal violence	0.01%	0.3%	–3.21%	–2.43%	1.05%	0.44%	2.19%	1.11%	0.37%	0.88%	–2.26%	–1.24%
Other external causes	–0.43%	0.05%	–1.84%	–1.53%	3.4%	3.92%	1.94%	2.18%	–2.01%	–1.99%	–2.09%	–4.18%
Other	0.18%	0.17%	2.82%	1.86%	3.05%	2.35%	–1.33%	–2.03%	–2.23%	–0.45%	–1.35%	–1.12%
AIDS and tuberculosis	4.28%	3.55%	1.12%	–1.14%	3.39%	6.08%	–10.65%	–15.13%	5.16%	10.16%	6.01%	4.39%
Diabetes and obesity	0.53%	–0.35%	0.63%	–0.3%	2.9%	3.55%	–2.53%	–1.98%	0.22%	0.08%	–0.23%	–0.62%
Alcohol abuse and drug dependence	–2.9%	–1.18%	–2.29%	–2.75%	1.67%	1.9%	2.23%	1.59%	0.43%	1.3%	–5.24%	–5.35%
Alzheimer’s disease	–6.47%	–4.31%	–	–	–18.53%	–17.52%	–2.57%	–1.73%	2.94%	2.53%	2.17%	0.93%
Dementia and other mental disorders	–0.72%	–1.16%	7.84%	4.76%	1.24%	–0.51%	0.53%	1.72%	–8.22%	–6.1%	2.78%	3.06%
Rest of causes	0.16%	0.27%	2.21%	1.56%	1.42%	1.12%	–0.59%	–0.09%	–1.59%	–1.3%	–0.96%	–1.28%
Risk factors
AIDS and tuberculosis	4.28%	3.55%	1.12%	–1.14%	3.39%	6.08%	–10.65%	–15.13%	5.16%	10.16%	6.01%	4.39%
Smoking	–1.51%	0.6%	–1.54%	–1.46%	–1.83%	–0.82%	–0.23%	0.06%	1.58%	0.95%	2.49%	1.52%
Diabetes and obesity	0.53%	–0.35%	0.63%	–0.3%	2.9%	3.55%	–2.53%	–1.98%	0.22%	0.08%	–0.23%	–0.62%
Alcohol abuse	–0.06%	0.08%	–1.96%	–2.78%	2.87%	2.03%	1.91%	1.8%	–0.57%	0.2%	–4.56%	–3.29%
Drug dependency	–4.13%	–3.85%	–3.02%	–3.35%	4.61%	7.19%	3.95%	1.73%	–4.07%	–2.04%	–1.84%	–5.07%
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease	–1.12%	–0.78%	6.75%	5.89%	1.75%	–0.41%	–1.99%	–0.88%	–4.47%	–3.53%	0.86%	0.89%
Hypertensive disease	2.03%	0.92%	4.93%	3.38%	4.43%	4.39%	–1.43%	–0.89%	–3.52%	–3.23%	–4.05%	–3.22%
Self–harm	–0.38%	–0.12%	–2.59%	–0.01%	1.36%	–0.67%	2.84%	0.6%	–0.91%	0.13%	–2.34%	–0.69%
Homicide	0.52%	0.99%	–4.4%	–7.67%	0.38%	1.23%	1.12%	2%	2.19%	3.16%	–0.84%	–0.89%

TABLE 6 Departure of Mortality Improvement Rates from the Overall Average, by Cohort Group and Causes of Death

Female cohort:	1881–1925		1925–1945		1945–1960		1960–1975		1975–1986
Male cohort:	1881–1920		1920–1940		1940–1955		1955–1970		1970–1986
Cause	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male
All-cause	0.01%	–0.29%	0.48%	0.84%	–0.44%	–0.69%	–0.07%	–0.05%	–0.44%	–0.59%
Circulatory diseases	0.33%	0.06%	0.74%	1.24%	–1.23%	–0.3%	–1.21%	–1.03%	–0.68%	–2.65%
Ischemic heart disease	0.51%	–0.36%	0.85%	1.25%	–1.38%	0.02%	–1.83%	–0.14%	–1.39%	–3.19%
CVD and stroke	0.03%	0.38%	0.15%	0.47%	–0.81%	–1.04%	0.4%	–0.43%	0.09%	–0.51%
Other circulatory system diseases	0.03%	0.41%	0.68%	1.11%	–0.88%	–1.02%	–0.59%	–1.3%	0.68%	–0.82%
Neoplasms	–1.11%	–1.26%	0.52%	0.35%	1.04%	0.49%	0.94%	1.19%	0.42%	0.19%
Bowel cancer	0.1%	0.33%	0.98%	0.84%	–0.93%	–0.49%	–1.61%	–1.99%	–0.91%	–0.47%
Liver cancer	–0.17%	–0.14%	–0.08%	0.43%	–0.72%	–3.89%	1.44%	4.54%	0.25%	0.24%
Lung cancer	–2.42%	–3.26%	1.2%	0.66%	1.8%	1.96%	6.02%	3.95%	–0.44%	–0.94%
Breast cancer	–0.97%	–	0.31%	–	1.06%	–	0.25%	–	0.93%	–
Prostate cancer	–	–0.67%	–	0.92%	–	–1.59%	–	–0.43%	–	3.05%
Other cancers	–1.58%	–1.82%	0.65%	0.19%	1.15%	0.9%	0.7%	1.64%	0.64%	0.67%
Other digestive organ cancers	–0.24%	–0.02%	0.59%	0.15%	0.02%	0.22%	0.07%	0.69%	–0.57%	–1.5%
Respiratory diseases	–0.74%	–1.72%	–0.13%	0.76%	0.73%	0.24%	2.11%	1.28%	1.83%	0.04%
Influenza and pneumonia	–0.26%	–0.98%	–0.49%	0.75%	0.26%	–0.74%	0.7%	1.36%	–0.15%	–1.16%
Chronic lower respiratory disease	–2.91%	–2.74%	1.16%	1.46%	1.01%	0.86%	3.6%	0.65%	3.7%	–0.18%
Other respiratory diseases	–1.9%	–2.82%	0.4%	1.27%	0.72%	0.11%	1.64%	1.29%	2.15%	1.17%
Digestive system	–0.83%	–0.52%	0.64%	0.56%	–0.32%	–1.2%	1.9%	2.38%	0.05%	–0.6%
Gastric and duodenal ulcer	–1.16%	–1.22%	0.44%	1.16%	–0.14%	–0.91%	0.83%	1.04%	1.16%	–0.27%
Chronic liver disease	–1.77%	–0.84%	1.85%	0.55%	–0.63%	–1.12%	3.56%	3.28%	–0.7%	–0.85%
Other digestive system diseases	–0.59%	–0.51%	–0.1%	0.43%	0.09%	–1.16%	1.27%	1.9%	0.78%	–0.13%
External causes	0.87%	0.19%	0.16%	0.44%	–2.1%	–1.57%	0.43%	0.16%	0.58%	0.35%
Traffic accidents	–0.2%	0.1%	0.33%	–0.14%	–0.88%	–1.04%	0.51%	0.38%	–0.17%	1.16%
Self–harm and interpersonal violence	–0.12%	0.35%	0.42%	0.57%	–1.4%	–1.11%	0.76%	–0.67%	0.3%	–0.45%
Other external causes	1.93%	0.44%	0.27%	0.89%	–3.38%	–2.42%	–0.41%	0.34%	–0.62%	–0.3%
Other	–2.18%	–1.56%	0.97%	0.28%	0.03%	–1.61%	2.44%	3.42%	2.17%	2.35%
AIDS and tuberculosis	3.88%	6.94%	–1.21%	–2.31%	–7.21%	–7.88%	0.85%	–0.12%	1.72%	0.16%
Diabetes and obesity	–0.04%	0.03%	0.53%	0.34%	–0.58%	–0.44%	–1.08%	–0.15%	–0.07%	–0.25%
Alcohol abuse and drug dependence	–3.18%	–2.16%	2.12%	0.61%	–0.77%	–1.55%	4.27%	4.02%	–0.99%	0.94%
Alzheimer’s disease	–5.82%	–7.29%	0.99%	0.4%	1.68%	1.92%	5.56%	1.67%	–2.53%	3.14%
Dementia and other mental disorders	–4.97%	–5.4%	–0.06%	–0.27%	3.66%	1.92%	4.52%	4.38%	4.66%	5.41%
Rest of causes	–1.48%	–1.19%	0.12%	0.36%	0.72%	–1.03%	1.57%	2.23%	1.14%	1%
Risk factors
AIDS and tuberculosis	3.88%	6.94%	–1.21%	–2.31%	–7.21%	–7.88%	0.85%	–0.12%	1.72%	0.16%
Alcohol abuse	–1.53%	–0.68%	1.88%	0.65%	–0.67%	–1.06%	3.29%	2.75%	–1.83%	–1.38%
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease	–3.61%	–3.79%	0%	–0.11%	2.94%	1.44%	4.16%	3.55%	4.17%	4.92%
Diabetes and obesity	–0.04%	0.03%	0.53%	0.34%	–0.58%	–0.44%	–1.08%	–0.15%	–0.07%	–0.25%
Drug dependency	1.13%	1.73%	–0.01%	0.14%	–4.78%	–6.04%	1.64%	3.2%	–2.14%	–2.17%
Homicide	–0.71%	0.38%	0.91%	0.7%	–1.25%	0.3%	0.68%	–2.09%	0.54%	–2.49%
Hypertensive disease	0.52%	1.4%	0.75%	0.77%	–1.96%	–1.89%	–0.62%	–1.4%	0.23%	–1.1%
Self–harm	0.11%	0.29%	0.28%	0.86%	–1.09%	–1.89%	0.64%	–0.32%	–0.77%	–0.1%
Smoking	–2.42%	–3.26%	1.2%	0.66%	1.8%	1.96%	6.02%	3.95%	–0.44%	–0.94%

Note: Cohort groups for women and men have different boundaries.