Cancer values of prevented fatalities (VPFs), one size does not fit all: The benefits of contaminated site cleanups in Italy

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary of attributes and attribute levels in the conjoint choice experiments

Attribute	Number of Levels	Levels
		Cancer
Context (cause of death)	3	Road traffic accidents
		Respiratory illnesses
		Private good (no other beneficiaries);
Private good or public program	2	Nationwide public program (other beneficiaries)
Latency	4	0, 2, 5, 10 yr
Size of the risk reduction	4	2, 3, 5, 7 in 10,000 over 5 yr
Cost to the respondent (one-time)	4	200, 500, 1000, 2000 euros

Table 2. Summary of pairs and choice responses used in this paper

		Choice Set
		Treatment TFORMAT = 1	Treatment TFORMAT = 2
Pair 1 (alternatives A and B)	First choice task	A vs. B	—
	Second choice task	A vs. B vs. status quo	A vs. B vs. status quo
Pair 2 (alternatives C and D)	First choice task	C vs. D	—
	Second choice task	C vs. D vs. status quo	C vs. D vs. status quo
Total number of choice responses per person		4	2

Table 3. Descriptive statistics of the sample

Variable	Mean	SD	Min	Max
Female (dummy)	0.492	0.500	0	1
Age (yr)	39.691	10.288	20	59
Age2034 (20–34 age group) (dummy)	0.355	0.479	0	1
Age3544 (35–44 age group) (dummy)	0.306	0.461	0	1
Age4560 (45–60 age group) (dummy)	0.338	0.474	0	1
Matura (high school diploma) (dummy)	0.370	0.483	0	1
Somecollege (some years of college) (dummy)	0.060	0.237	0	1
College (college degree or better) (dummy)	0.251	0.434	0	1
Highincome (after-tax household income >€30,000/yr)	0.415	0.493	0	1
Income (after-tax household income, euro/yr)	30,619	11,398	5000	80,000
Homemaker (dummy)	0.060	0.238	0	1

Table 4. Estimation results, RUM of eqs 2–3, choice responses from the first two pairs of alternative, cancer risks only

	All (Adult and Child Risk Reductions)		Adult Risk Reductions
Coefficient Label (Variable)	Coefficient	t Statistics	Coefficeint	t Statistics
α (DR, discounted flow of risk reduction)	0.2298***	11.291	0.2011***	7.238
β (cost)	−0.0005***	−9.96	−0.0005***	−6.915
δ (discount rate)	0.0201	1.531	−0.0063	−0.352
N	1931		959
Log L	−1705.69		−881.327
Value of a prevented fatality (VPF) (million euros)	4.594		4.179
Standard error around VPF (million euros)	0.418		0.566
Note: ***P-value < 0.01.

Table 5. Conditional logit and mixed logit models of the responses to the conjoint choice question

Variables	Variable definition	A	B	C	D	E
Reduction	reduction in mortality risk	0.2116 *** (0.016)	0.2047 *** (0.022)	0.1989 *** (0.016)	0.1325 *** (0.034)	0.1395 *** (0.037)
Rpublic	risk reduction × public initiative			0.0476 *** (0.013)	−0.1524 *** (0.044)	−0.2238 *** (0.060)
Rgenetic	risk reduction × predisposition cancer				0.0269 (0.030)	0.0300 (0.0343)
Rfamily	risk reduction × a family member has had cancer				0.0167 (0.025)	0.0152 (0.0282)
Rchild	risk reduction × reduction is for the respondent's child				0.0025 (0.022)	0.0039 (0.0248)
Rsalience	risk reduction × respondent has cancer				0.0908 * (0.049)	0.0989 * (0.063)
Rfriends	risk reduction × someone close to you has cancer				0.0269 (0.023)	0.0365 (0.0263)
Rfamilies	risk reduction × someone in most families gets cancer				0.0008 (0.024)	−0.0025 (0.0267)
Rsmoker	risk reduction × smoker				−0.0113 (0.028)	−0.0042 (0.0306)
Rsmokacanc	risk reduction × smoking causes cancer				0.0459 (0.029)	0.0553 * (0.0317)
Rpubleff	risk reduction × public initiative × program effective				0.0556 *** (0.012)	0.0815 *** (0.0178)
Cost	One-time cost to household	−0.0005 *** (0.000)	−0.0005 *** (0.000)	−0.0005 *** (0.000)	−0.0005 *** (0.000)	−0.0006 *** (0.0001)
Std Dev Rpubleff	Standard deviation of the coefficient on rpubff					0.0716 *** (0.0237)
Std Dev Rsmoker	Standard deviation of the coefficient on rsmoker					−0.0019
						(1.7242)
Notes: ***P < 0.01; **P < 0.05; *P < 0.1; standard errors in parentheses.

Table 6. Mortality benefits of eliminating exposures to uncontrolled wastes in the provinces of Naples and Caserta

	Lives Lost Attributed to Waste Per Year	Benefits (Billion 2008 Euros) Central Estimate of the VSL (Lower Bound, Upper Bond)
All causes mortality	848	9.58
		(6.42, 25.49)
All fatal cancers	403	6.83
		(4.59, 17.33)
All cause mortality adjusted for cancer premium	848	11.83
		(7.95, 30.99)
Notes: Source: Guerriero and Cairns, 2009; European Environment Agency, 2000. 2007 euro (2008 euro).

Table 7. Italy- and cancer/waste-specific VPF figures for computing the mortality benefits of cleanup and improved waste management

Reference	Context and Cause of Death	VPF (Million 2008 Euros)	S.E. Around VPF (Million Euros)	95% Lower Bound	95% Upper Bound	Year of the Surey	Estimated Discount Rate
Alberini and Chiabai (2007a, 2007b)	Cardiovascular illness, 30–49 yr old now	2.486	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	2004	0.003
Alberini et al. (2007b)	All fatal illnesses associated with contaminated site exposures	5.976	0.826	4.358	7.594	2005	0.074
This paper	VPF for cancer, no specific context	4.164	0.276	3.623	4.704	2008	0.000

Table 8. Mortality benefits of cleanup and waste management; central value in billion 2008 euros

Latency = 20 yr Duration = 30 yr	Guerriero and Cairns (2009)	Alberini and Chiabai (2007a, 2007b)		Alberini et al. (2007)		This paper
	δ = 0.04	δ = 0.04	δ = 0.003	δ = 0.04	δ = 0.074	δ = 0.04	δ = 0
All causes mortality (N = 848)	9.58	16.55	56.95	39.78	13.85	n/a	n/a
All fatal cancers (N = 403)	6.83	—	—	—	—	13.17	50.34
All cause mortality adjusted for cancer premium	11.83	—	—	39.78	13.85	—	—
Note: Since calculating the value of eq 7 from the Alberini et al. (2007) study requires the marginal utilities of risk reduction and income, and the discount rate estimated from that study, and these estimates are correlated, we used the original maximum likelihood estimation routine, and a simulation procedure based on 20,000 replications to compute the standard errors around (as shown in eq 7).

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