The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

Figures & data

Figure 1. Overview of analytical approach to estimating climate-related ozone changes, health impacts, and economic values.

Figure 2. Projected change in average daily maximum temperature, seasonal average maximum daily 8-hr ozone, and ozone-related premature deaths in 2030.

Table 1. Additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses attributable to climate change in 2030 in the continental United States (95% confidence intervals)

Health outcome^a	Climate scenario^b
	GISS/RCP 6.0	CESM/RCP 8.5
Alternative estimates of ozone-related premature death (ages 0–99 years)
Bell et al. (2004)	37	420
	(12–61)	(140–700)
Huang, Dominici, and Bell (2004)	56	640
	(21–92)	(240–1000)
Schwartz (2005)	56	640
	(17–94)	(200–1100)
Bell, Dominici, and Samet (2005)	120	1300
	(56–180)	(630–2000)
Ito, De Leon, and Lippmann (2005)	160	1900
	(98–230)	(1100–2600)
Levy, Chemerynski, and Sarnat (2005)	170	1900
	(110–220)	(1300–2500)
Respiratory hospital admissions (ages 0–1 and 65–99 years)	360	3900
	(65–870)	(1600–8000)
Respiratory emergency department visits (ages 0–99 years)	89	1200
	(82–310)	(1000–4300)
Acute respiratory symptoms (ages 18–64 years)	210,000	1,900,000
	(86,000–330,000)	(780,000–3,000,000)
Missed days of school (ages 5–17 years)	67,000	650,000
	(23,000–150,000)	(230,000–1,500,000)

Notes: ^aEstimates rounded to two significant figures.

^bThe 2030 ozone levels calculated by averaging each modeled year of ozone levels—three selected years for GISS/RCP 6.0 and 2025–2035 for CESM/RCP 8.5.

Table 2. Economic value of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses attributable to climate change in 2030 (95% confidence intervals, millions of 2010 dollars)

Health outcome^a	Climate scenario^b
	GISS/RCP 6.0	CESM/RCP 8.5
Alternative estimates of ozone-related premature death (ages 0–99 years)
Bell et al. (2004)	$290	$3400
	($24–$870)	($280–$10,000)
Huang, Dominici, and Bell (2004)	$450	$5200
	($38–$1300)	($430–$15,000)
Schwartz (2005)	$450	$5100
	($36–$1300)	($410–$15,000)
Bell, Dominici, and Samet (2005)	$940	$11,000
	($82–$2700)	($940–$31,000)
Ito, De Leon, and Lippmann (2005)	$1300	$15,000
	($120–$3700)	($1400–$42,000)
Levy, Chemerynski, and Sarnat (2005)	$1300	$15,000
	($120–3600)	($1400–$41,000)
Respiratory hospital admissions (ages 0–1 and 65–99 years)	$11	$100
	($2–$19)	($10–$130)
Respiratory emergency department visits (ages 0–99 years)	$0.04	$0.5
	($0.01–$0.1)	($0.3–$1.3)
Acute respiratory symptoms (ages 18–64 years)	$13	$120
	($5–$25)	($45–$220)
Missed days of school (ages 5–17 years)	$7	$64
	($3–$9.4)	($28–$91)
Total economic value of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses
Sum of Bell et al. 2004 and each morbidity outcome	$320	$3600
	($34–$920)	($350–$10,000)
Sum of Levy et al. 2005 and each morbidity outcome	$1400	$15,000
	($130–$3700)	($1500–$41,000)

Notes: ^aEstimates rounded to two significant figures.

^bThe 2030 ozone levels calculated by averaging each modeled year of ozone levels—three selected years for GISS/RCP 6.0 and 2025–2035 for CESM/RCP 8.5.

Table 3. Estimated number of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses attributable to projected change in the U.S. climate (95% confidence intervals)

	GISS/RCP 6.0			CESM/RCP 8.5
	Years least, moderately, and most conducive to forming ozone			Years least, moderately, and most conducive to forming ozone
Health outcome^a	Least (2035)	Moderately (2027)	Most (2025)	Least (2028)	Moderately (2030)	Most (2035)
Alternative estimates of ozone–related premature death (ages 0–99 years)
Bell et al. (2004)	–220	–6	340	–32	400	870
	(–75 to –380)	(–2 to –9)	(110 to –570)	(–11 to –53)	(230–670)	(290–1500)
Huang, Dominici, and Bell (2004)	–350	3	520	–48	620	1,300
	(–130 to –570)	(1–4)	(190–840)	(–18 to –77)	(230–1000)	(500–2200)
Schwartz (2005)	–340	–8	520	–49	620	1300
	(–100 to –580)	(–3 to –14)	(160–880)	(–15 to –83)	(190–1000)	(410–2600)
Bell, Dominici, and Samet (2005)	–720	–21	1,100	–110	1300	2800
	(–340 to –1,100)	(–10 to –38)	(520–1,700)	(–53 to –170)	(610–2000)	(1300–4300)
Ito, De Leon, and Lippmann (2005)	–1000	–25	1500	–140	1800	3900
	(–600 to –1400)	(–15 to –34)	(920–2100)	(–87 to –200)	(1100–2500)	(2400–5500)
Levy, Chemerynski, and Sarnat (2005)	–1000	–29	1500	–160	1800	3900
	(690 to –1300)	(–20 to –38)	(1100–2000)	(–110 to –210)	(1200–2400)	(2700–5200)
Respiratory hospital admissions (ages 0–1 and 65–99 years)	–1900	–130	3,100	–250	3500	7500
	(–280 to –4100)	(–42 to –260)	(6800–1100)	(–110 to –560)	(2200–5700)	(5000–12,000)
Respiratory emergency department visits (ages 0–99 years)	–510	–3	770	38	1200	2500
	(–420 to –1700)	(–14 to –4)	(–720 to 2700)	(17—86)	(530–2600)	(1100–5600)
Acute respiratory symptoms (ages 18–64 years)	–950,000	–2400	1,600,000	–180,000	1,900,000	4,000,000
	(–390,000 to –1,500,000)	(–380 to –6100)	(650,000–2,500,000)	(75,000–280,000)	(780,000–3,000,000)	(1,600,000–6,300,000)
Missed days of school (ages 5–17 years)	–310,000	–4,000	500,000	–81,000	660,000	1,400,000
	(–110,00 to –670,000)	(–6300 to –1500)	(180,000–1,100,000)	(28,000–110,000)	(600,000–730,000)	(1,300,000–1,500,000)

Note: ^aEstimates rounded to two significant figures.

Figure 3. Annual number of climate-attributable ozone-related premature deaths by region and year for the CESM/RCP 8.5 scenario.

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