Estimation of future PM_2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique

Figures & data

Figure 1. Annual mean PM_2.5 concentration averaged (a) from 2002 to 2004 (top column, 2000s) and (b) from 2057 to 2059 (middle column, 2050s). (c) Difference of annual mean PM_2.5 concentration between the future year and the present year (bottom column, 2050s–2000s).

Figure 2. Annual mean MDA8 ozone concentration averaged (a) from 2002 to 2004 (top column, 2000s) and (b) from 2057 to 2059 (middle column, 2050s). (c) Difference of annual mean MDA8 ozone concentration between the future year and the present year (bottom column, 2050s – 2000s).

Table 1. PM_2.5- and ozone-related mortality source in the “EPA Standard Health Functions” data set of BenMAP-CE

Health endpoint	Metric	Age (years)	Location	Reference
PM2.5
All-cause mortality	D24HourMean	>29	116 U.S. cities	(Krewski et al., 2009)
		>29	51 cities	(Pope III et al., 2002)
Ischemic heart disease mortality	D24HourMean	>29	116 U.S. cities	(Krewski et al., 2009)
Lung cancer mortality	D24HourMean	>29	116 U.S. cities	(Krewski et al., 2009)
Ozone
All-cause mortality	D8HourMax	0–64	United States and non-United States	(Bell et al, 2005)
				(Levy et al., 2005)
Nonaccidental mortality	D8HourMax	0–64	95 U.S. cities	(Bell et al., 2004)
			7 U.S. cities	(Ito et al., 2005)
Respiratory mortality	D8HourMax	30–64	86 Urban areas	(Jerrett et al., 2009)
Cardiopulmonary mortality	D8HourMax	0–64	19 U.S. cities	(Huang et al., 2005)

Table 2. National PM_2.5- and ozone-related mortality in the 2000s and 2050s with baseline incidence rate and population held constant (rounded to the nearest 100)

PM2.5 Incidence	2000s National mortality (95% CI)	2050s National mortality (95% CI)
All-cause mortality	103,300 (70,400, 135,700)	60,700 (35,000, 86,000)
Ischemic heart disease mortality	68,300 (56,500, 79,800)	41,200 (33,800, 48,500)
Lung cancer mortality	15,400 (6,900, 23,500)	9,200 (4,000, 14,200)
Ozone incidence	2000s National mortality (95% CI)	2050s National mortality (95% CI)
All-cause mortality	28,600 (14,300, 42,200)	29,900 (15,000, 44,100)
Nonaccidental mortality	6,700 (2,000, 18,800)	7,000 (2,100, 19,700)
Cardiopulmonary mortality	6,300 (2,400, 10,200)	6,600 (2,500, 10,600)
Respiratory mortality	5,300 (1,900, 8,300)	5,500 (2,000, 8,600)

Table 3. Evaluation of model output for PM_2.5 from 2001 to 2004 (mean fractional bias/mean fractional error [MFB/MFE], normalized mean bias/normalized mean error [NMB/NME], and mean normalized bias [MNB] and mean normalized error [MNE])

	PM2.5		PM2.5		PM2.5
MFB	–35 ± 2	NMB	–33 ± 3	MNB	–5 ± 3
MFE	65 ± 1	NME	58 ± 1	MNE	63 ± 2

Figure 3. PM_2.5-related all-cause (after pooling), ischemic heart disease and lung cancer mortality in (a) the 2000s and (b) the 2050s with population and baseline incidence rate held constant at 2000 level; (c) PM_2.5-related all-cause (after pooling), ischemic heart disease, and lung cancer mortality in the 2050s with projected baseline incidence rate and population. The error bars represent the 95% confidence interval of each incidence for different states.

Figure 4. Ozone-related all-cause (after pooling), nonaccidental (after pooling), cardiopulmonary and respiratory premature mortality in (a) the 2000s and (b) the 2050s with population and baseline incidence rate held constant at 2000 level; (c) ozone-related all-cause (after pooling), nonaccidental (after pooling), cardiopulmonary and respiratory premature mortality in the 2050s with projected baseline incidence rate and population. The error bars represent the 95% confidence interval of each incidence for different states.

Table 4. National PM_2.5- and ozone-related mortality in the 2050s with projected baseline incidence rate and population (rounded to the nearest 100)

PM2.5 Incidence	2050s National mortality (95% CI)
All-cause mortality	110,800 (63,900, 157,100)
Ischemic heart disease mortality	83,200 (68,300, 97,800)
Lung cancer mortality	11,800 (5,200, 18,200)
Ozone incidence	2050s National mortality (95% CI)
All-cause mortality	30,700 (15,400, 45,300)
Nonaccidental mortality	7,600 (2,300, 21,300)
Cardiopulmonary mortality	7,400 (2,800, 11,800)
Respiratory mortality	6,700 (2,500, 10,500)

Figure 5. Standardized PM_2.5-related mortality estimates (a) in the 2000s and (b) in the 2050s (with projected population and baseline incidence rate).

Figure 6. Standardized ozone-related mortality estimates (a) in the 2000s and (b) in the 2050s (with projected population and baseline incidence rate).

Krewski, D., M. Jerrett, R.T. Burnett, R.J. Ma, E. Hughes, Y.L. Shi, M.C. Turner, C.A. Pope 3rd, G. Thurston, E.E. Calle, M.J. Thun, B. Beckerman, P. DeLuca, N. Finkelstein, K. Ito, D.K. Moore, K.B. Newbold, T. Ramsay, Z. Ross, H. Shin, and B. Tempalski. 2009. Extended Follow-Up and Spatial Analysis of the American Cancer Society Study Linking Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality. Cambridge, MA: Health Effects Institute.

 Google Scholar

Pope III, C.A., R.T. Burnett, M.J. Thun, E.E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and G.D. Thurston. 2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 287(9): 1132–41. doi:10.1001/jama.287.9.1132

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Bell, M.L., F. Dominici, and J.M. Samet. 2005. A meta-analysis of time-series studies of ozone and mortality with comparison to the national morbidity, mortality, and air pollution study. Epidemiology 16(4):436–45. doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000165817.40152.85

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Levy, J.I., S.M. Chemerynski, and J.A. Sarnat. 2005. Ozone exposure and mortality: An empiric Bayes metaregression analysis. Epidemiology. 16(4): 458–68. doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000165820.08301.b3

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Bell, M.L., A. McDermott, S.L. Zeger, J.M. Samet, and F. Dominici. 2004. Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987–2000. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 292(19):2372–78. doi:10.1001/jama.292.19.2372

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Ito, K., S. F. De Leon, and L. Morton. 2005. Associations between ozone and daily mortality: analysis and meta-analysis. Epidemiology 16(4):446–57. doi:10.2307/20486080

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Jerrett, M., R.T. Burnett, C.A. Pope, K. Ito, G. Thurston, D. Krewski, Y.L. Shi, E. Calle, and M. Thun. 2009. Long-term ozone exposure and mortality. N. Engl. J. Med. 360(11):1085–95. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa0803894

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Huang, Y., F. Dominici, and M.L. Bell. 2005. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for summer ozone exposure and cardio-respiratory mortality. Environmetrics 16(5):547–62. doi:10.1002/env.721

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar