Does Sectoral Composition of Trade Matter for Trade-Energy-Growth Nexus? A VAR/VEC Based Analysis for China in the Presence of Structural Change

Abstract

This study identifies the differential effect of sectoral composition of trade on trade-energy consumption–economic growth nexus for China from 1992–2015. We divided trade into five broad sectors—high tech (HT), medium tech (MT), low tech (LT), primary products (PP), and resource-based products (RB)—based on technology intensity. VAR and VEC models are applied depending on time series properties and cointegration among the variables. The study finds that trade in different sectors has differential effects on growth and energy consumption. It is also evident that LT and PP trade do not have long-run cointegration with growth and energy consumption, whereas the opposite is true for MT, HT, and RB trade. Regarding growth-energy nexus, the study defends the conservation hypothesis for China. Growth and energy cause LT and PP trade in the short run only, whereas they only cause MT trade in the long run. Trade in HT, MT, and RB sectors strong cause growth but not energy consumption. This study inter alia suggests that to reduce energy consumption while maintaining higher economic growth China should provide greater focus on HT, MT, and RB sectors.

Keywords:

• Trade composition
• technology intensity
• energy consumption
• economic growth
• VAR/VEC

Notes

1 The classification of trade based on technology intensity including the SITC number as per SITC rev 3 is provided in Supplementary Appendix 1.