The Political Economy of Vietnam and Its Development Strategy under China–USA Power Rivalry and Hegemonic Competition: Hedging for Survival

Abstract

The US–China confrontation has been undertaking a great change ever since the end of the Cold War. The two superpowers are embarking in a comprehensive confrontation in various spheres: trade, investment, technology, security, ideology, and so on. In order to avoid being a political pawn in the game of great powers, Vietnam consistently conducts the policy of non-taking side and hedging strategy between China and the US, economically and politically. This strategy is a successful integrated combination of bandwagoning and balancing policies comprehensively. It has so far helped Vietnam to take advantages of its geo-politics for better economic development and at the same time to reduce negative influences and pressures from both powers on its national autonomy and independence.

Keywords:

• Vietnamese Foreign Policy
• US–China confrontation
• hedging strategy
• geo-politics
• economic cooperation

Notes

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2 Chinafile (19 December, 2017). Trump’s National Security Strategy and China. https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/trumps-national-security-strategy-and-china

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4 The New York Times (21 July, 2020). Pompeo Praises Britain for Getting Tough on China. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/world/europe/mike-pompeo-boris-johnson-china.html

5 Reuters (4 May, 2020). Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-sentiment-ex-idUSKBN22G19C

6 CNBC (15 June 2018). Trump to slap 25% tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese goods; China retaliates. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/trump-administration-to-slap-a-25-percent-tariff-on-50-billion-of-chinese-goods-threatens-more.html

7 The South China Morning Post (16 August, 2020). Chinese President Xi Jinping says Marxist political economy is the bedrock for nation’s growth. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3097561/chinese-president-xi-jinping-says-marxist-political-economy

8 The South China Morning Post (21 May, 2020). ‘Cold War echoes’: United States accuses China of face-off on all fronts. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3085509/cold-war-echoes-united-states-accuses-china-face-all-fronts

9 Business Insider (26 September, 2018). Trump puts China on blast during UN speech, says Beijing’s economic policies 'cannot be tolerated'. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-unga-un-speech-video-2018-9

10 The South China Morning Post (2 June 2021). South China Sea rivals agree to set up hotline “to cope with emergencies”. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3135619/south-china-sea-rivals-agree-set-hotline-cope-emergencies

11 Reuters (23 July 2017). PetroVietnam, Exxon Mobil sign deal on gas generation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrovietnam-exxon-mobil-idUSKBN14X1F4

12 Vietnamplus (11 July 2019). Coast guards bear heavy but glorious responsibility: PM. https://en.vietnamplus.vn/coast-guards-bear-heavy-but-glorious-responsibility-pm/155928.vnp.

13 BBC news (16 April 2021). Biển Đông: VN tập trận bắn đạn thật ở Trường Sa để 'tỏ thái độ' với TQ? https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam-56755599

14 Reuters (16 April 2021). U.S. stops short of branding Vietnam, Switzerland, Taiwan currency manipulators. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-says-vietnam-switzerland-taiwan-violate-currency-thresholds-2021-04-16/.

15 South China Morning Post (25 August 2021). Coronavirus: US to give Vietnam 1 million more vaccine shots as record cases reported. https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/3146310/coronavirus-us-give-vietnam-1-million-more-vaccine-shots-japan-expand.

16 Tienphong (9 July 2015). Toàn văn bài nói chuyện của Tổng Bí thư tại CSIS.

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17 Vnexpress (17 May 2016). Obama to open first American-stype private university in Ho Chi Minh city next week. https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/obama-to-open-first-american-style-private-university-in-ho-chi-minh-city-next-week-3404377.html

18 Peacecorps (10 July 2020). Peacecorps, Vietnam celebrate historic agreement. https://www.peacecorps.gov/news/library/peace-corps-viet-nam-celebrate-historic-agreement/

19 Thanh nien (22 August 2020). Thấy gì từ hợp tác quốc phòng an ninh Việt - Mỹ?

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20 BBC (5 March 2018). US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson in historic Vietnam visit. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43282558

21 Reuters (11 March 2020). U.S. says completes second aircraft carrier visit to Vietnam.

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22 Lao dong (9 September 2021). Việt Nam trả lời về việc nâng cấp quan hệ Việt - Mỹ. https://laodong.vn/the-gioi/viet-nam-tra-loi-ve-viec-nang-cap-quan-he-viet-my-951514.ldo

23 Baochinhphu (14 December 2015). Hướng đi chiến lược của ngoại giao Việt Nam trong thế kỷ 21. http://baochinhphu.vn/Tin-noi-bat/Huong-di-chien-luoc-cua-ngoai-giao-Viet-Nam-trong-the-ky-21/243664.vgp.

24 Bloomberg (26 August 2021). Harris Says She Raised Human Rights with Vietnam After Criticism. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-26/harris-says-she-raised-human-rights-with-vietnam-after-criticism

25 Vietnamnet (24 August 2021). Quan hệ Việt - Mỹ mang cả tính toàn diện và chiến lược

https://vietnamnet.vn/vn/tuanvietnam/tieudiem/quan-he-viet-my-mang-ca-tinh-toan-dien-va-chien-luoc-768527.html.

26 According to the US mission to ASEAN (9 January 2019). ASEAN-U.S. Maritime Exercise Begins in Thailand. https://asean.usmission.gov/asean-u-s-maritime-exercise-begins-in-thailand/

27 Yusof Ishak Instute (11 December 2018). “Why did Vietnam Cancel its Defence Engagements with the US?” https://www.iseas.edu.sg/media/commentaries/why-did-vietnam-cancel-its-defence-engagements-with-the-us-by-le-hong-hiep/

28 Vietnam Communist Party (25 May 2021). Tham gia “Bộ tứ mở rộng” có là cơ hội cho Việt Nam?https://dangcongsan.vn/cung-ban-luan/tham-gia-bo-tu-mo-rong-co-la-co-hoi-cho-viet-nam-555568.html

29 Indiatimes (15 November 2018). As Quad meets, Vietnam ambivalent about the group.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/as-quad-meets-vietnam-ambivalent-about-the-group/articleshow/66637725.cms

30 Nhandan (29 January 2022). Thương mại Việt-Trung: Một năm nhìn lại. https://special.nhandan.vn/thuongmai_Vietnam_TrungQuoc/index.html

31 Ibid

32 Calculated from data of the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam

33 AIIB (17 July 2020). AIIB Approves First Viet Nam Loan to Help Private Sector COVID-19 Response. from https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2020/AIIB-Approves-First-Vietnam-Loan-to-Help-Private-Sector-COVID-19-Response.html

34 Hanoitimes (22 January 2022). US-Vietnam trade turnover hits more than US$111 billion in 2022. From http://hanoitimes.vn/us-vietnam-trade-turnover-hits-more-than-us111-billion-in-2021-319830.html

35 Ibid

36 Data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam

37 Nikkei (8 May 2020). Apple to produce millions of AirPods in Vietnam amid pandemic.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Apple-to-produce-millions-of-AirPods-in-Vietnam-amid-pandemic

38 Vietnamnet (17 March 2022). US investors pour more funds into Vietnam. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/us-investors-pour-more-funds-into-vietnam-822944.html

39 Newsbeezer ( 1 September 2020). “No country can force Vietnam to choose either side”.

https://newsbeezer.com/vietnameng/no-country-can-force-vietnam-to-choose-either-side/

40 Vietnam Ministry of Defense. http://www.mod.gov.vn/wps/