The Symmetric and Asymmetric in the Nexus Tourism and Economic Development in China

Abstract

To account for potential asymmetries in the relationship, this study applies new bootstrap symmetric and asymmetric multivariate panel Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between international tourism receipts (ITRs) and economic growth in China for the period from 1995 to 2019. The result supports evidence for the symmetric causality in Henan, showing significant one-way Granger causality from ITRs to real gross domestic product (RGDP). They also indicate that Hunan has significant one-way Granger causality from RGDP to ITRs. These results denote that the hidden tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid in Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei and Jiangxi.

Keywords:

• Tourism
• economic growth
• bootstrap multivariate asymmetric panel Granger causality test
• China’s provinces

JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES:

• F63
• D82
• Z32

Acknowledgments

Xingyuan Yao acknowledges the financial support from Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province in China (#LY22G030014), Basic Scientific Research Project of Provincial Colleges and Universities in Zhejiang Province (#2022ZD02), and High-level Research and Innovation Team of Zhejiang Financial College (#2021XS06).

Notes

1 Here is the website for the data: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

2 Foreign exchange earnings from international tourism refer to the total expenditure on transportation, sighting, accommodation, food, shopping and entertainment of foreigners and overseas Chinese during their stay in China.

3 Per capita RGDP is a measurement of the total economic output of a country divided by the number of people and adjusted for inflation.

4 The number of overseas visitor arrivals (million person-times).