Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of medicinal plant Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don

Abstract

Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don is a renowned traditional Chinese medicine plant that is mainly distributed in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The overexploitation in the recent years has led to a sharp decline of this undomesticated resource. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of F. cirrhosa is meaningful for its conservation and domestication. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) was used to simulate the distribution of F. cirrhosa in relation to the current and future climatic conditions. The maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio 5) and the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio 18) were the two most important bioclimatic variables determining the distribution of F. cirrhosa. Based on the predicted level of climatic warming, a further reduction of the geographic distribution of F. cirrhosa is to be expected. This study demonstrated the necessity and urgency of establishing more effective ways to protect the natural F. cirrhosa resources and developing artificial cultivation methodology.

Keywords:

• Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don
• geographic distribution
• climate change
• Maxent
• ecological niche

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Dr Jian Li from Yale University for helping us with the language editing.