Surprise, surprise: the New Zealand general election of 2017

Figures & data

Table 1. The 2017 and 2014 elections: party votes and seats.

	2014		2017
	% votes	seats	% votes	seats
National Party	47.0	*60	44.4	56
Labour Party	25.1	32	36.9	46
New Zealand First Party (NZF)	8.7	11	7.2	9
Green Party	10.7	14	6.3	8
ACT New Zealand	0.7	1	0.5	1
The Opportunities Party (TOP)	–	–	2.4	0
Māori Party	1.3	2	1.2	0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party	0.5	0	0.3	0
Conservative (CONS)	4.0	0	0.2	0
MANA	1.4	0	0.1	0
Ban1080	0.2	0	0.1	0
New Zealand People’s Party	–	–	0.1	0
United Future (UF)	0.2	1	0.1	0
NZ Outdoors Party	–	–	0.1	0
Democrats for Social Credit	0.1	0	0	0
Internet Party**	–	–	0	0
Total		121		120
Left (Labour, Green, MANA)	37.2	46	43.3	54
Right (National, ACT, CONS)	51.7	61	45.1	57
Centre (NZF, Maori, TOP, UF)	10.2	14	10.9	9
Others	0.8	0	0.6	0

Source: Electoral Commission (2014, 2017a).

*National lost the Northland electorate seat to New Zealand First at a by-election early in 2015, bringing its seats down to 59.

**With MANA in 2014.

Table 2. Polling days and results for Labour, across public polling firms, 2017 election campaign.

	Date	Reid	Colmar-Brunton	Bauer	SSI	Morgan
August	22	39.4 (−4.0)
	23	39.4 (−4.0)
	24	39.4 (−4.0)
	25	39.4 (−4.0)
	26	39.4 (−4.0)	43 (+2.0)
	27	39.4 (−4.0)	43 (+2.0)
	28	39.4 (−4.0)	43 (+2.0)			39.5 (−0.5)
	29	39.4 (−4.0)	43 (+2.0)			39.5 (−0.5)
	30	39.4 (−4.0)	43 (+2.0)			39.5 (−0.5)
	31					39.5 (−0.5)
September	1			41 (+2.0)		39.5 (−0.5)
	2		43 (+4.0)	41 (+2.0)		39.5 (−0.5)
	3		43 (+4.0)	41 (+2.0)		39.5 (−0.5)
	4		43 (+4.0)	41 (+2.0)	45 (+15.0)	39.5 (−0.5)
	5		43 (+4.0)	41 (+2.0)	45 (+15.0)	39.5 (−0.5)
	6	37.8 (−9.0)	43 (+4.0)		45 (+15.0)	39.5 (−0.5)
	7	37.8 (−9.0)				39.5 (−0.5)
	8	37.8 (−9.0)				39.5 (−0.5)
	9	37.8 (−9.0)	44 (+4.0)			39.5 (−0.5)
	10	37.8 (−9.0)	44 (+4.0)			39.5 (−0.5)
	11	37.8 (−9.0)	44 (+4.0)
	12		44 (+4.0)
	13	37.3 (−9.0)	44 (+4.0)
	14	37.3 (−9.0)
	15	37.3 (−9.0)	37 (−9.0)
	16	37.3 (−9.0)	37 (−9.0)
	17	37.3 (−9.0)	37 (−9.0)
	18	37.3 (−9.0)	37 (−9.0)
	19	37.3 (−9.0)	37 (−9.0)
	20	37.3 (−9.0)
Mode		75% landline, 25% online	Landline	Online	Online	Landline 50%, mobile 50%
N		1000	1000	1528	550	887
N vote intent N (average)		918	840	1375	550	870
Margin of error		±3.2	±3.3	±2.6	±4.4	±3.3

Figure 1. Enrolment change, official turnout change and age-eligible turnout change 2014–2017 elections. Sources: Electoral Commission (2017b, 2017c, 2018).

Figure 2. Per cent change in enrolment 2017–2014 by Labour Party Vote in 2014. Source: post-estimation from Model Reported in Table 5.

Table 3. Changes in enrolment in general electorates, 2014–2017.

	Coef.	SE
% on Maori Roll	0.190*	0.088
% National Party Vote 2014	−0.005	0.102
% Labour Party Vote 2014	0.245*	0.097
Median age	0.518**	0.137
Median income ($10,000s)	1.229**	0.351
Constant	−36.867**	9.704
N	64.000
Adjusted R^2	0.255

*Significant at p < .05.

**Significant at p < .01.

Sources: Electoral Commission (2017a, 2017b; Statistics New Zealand 2017).

Figure 3. The effective number of elective parties in New Zealand, 1905–2017.

Table 4. Parties Under the party vote threshold, 1996–2017 including potential seat winners assuming no threshold.

Vote share (seats won)	1996	1999	2002	2005	2008	2011	2014	2017
TOP								2.4 ( 0)
Christian/conservative	4.3 (0)	2.4 (0)	1.4 (0)			2.7 (0)	4.0 (0)
Act				1.5 (2)	3.7 (4)	1.1 (1)	0.7 (1)	0.5 (1)
United future	0.9 (1)	0.5 (1)		2.7 (2)	0.9 (1)	0.6 (1)	0.2 (1)
Progressive coalition			1.7 (2)	1.2 (1)	0.9 (1)
NZ First		4.3 (5)			4.1 (0)
Maori				2.1 (4)	2.4 (5)	1.4 (3)	1.3 (2)	1.2(0)
Mana/Internet-Mana						1.1 (1)	1.4 (0)
Alliance			1.3 (0)
Outdoor Recreation			1.3 (0)
ALCP	1.7 (0)	1.1 (0)	0.6 (0)		0.4 (0)	0.5(0)	0.5(0)
Opportunities								2.4 (0)
Kiwi					0.5 (0)
Bill and Ben					0.6 (0)
Destiny				0.6 (0)
Future New Zealand		1.1 (0)

Source: Electoral Commission (2017d).

Notes: In bold: parties on about 4% or more failing to get seats; Shaded: parties benefiting from ‘coat tailing’; Italics: parties with more seats than calculated from the party vote (overhang).

Table 5. The Maori electorates, 2014 and 2017 elections.

	Electorate votes				Party votes
	2014		2017		2014	2017
	% vote	seats	% vote	seats
Vote %
Māori	26.7	1	28.6	0	14.1	12.2
MANA	20.4	0	5.1	0	10.2	1.7
Labour	43.1	6	53.4	7	41.2	60.1
Green	8.0	0	10.9	0	11.2	6.1
National					7.9	7.2
NZ first					13.0	8.5
TOP					–	2.7
Other	1.1	0	1.7	0	2.5	1.4
Independent	0.7	0	0.3	0
Valid votes	142,867		153,837		149,259	161,868
Effective N parties	3.3		2.6		4.2	2.5

Source: Electoral Commission (2014, 2017a).

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