Political demography of Canada–United States co-dependence: defence and security

Figures & data

Table 1. Countries projected to have declining populations, by the period of the onset of decline, 1981–2045.

Already declining	Onset of decline: 2009–2029	Onset of decline: 2030–2050
Hungary (1981)	Italy (2010)	Azerbaijan (2030)
Bulgaria (1986)	Slovakia (2011)	Denmark (2031)
Estonia (1990)	Bosnia & Herzegovina (2011)	Belgium (2031)
Georgia (1990)	Greece (2014)	Thailand (2033)
Latvia (1990)	Serbia (2014)	North Korea (2035)
Armenia (1991)	Portugal (2016)	Singapore (2035)
Romania (1991)	Cuba (2018)	Netherlands (2037)
Lithuania (1992)	Macedonia (2018)	Switzerland (2040)
Ukraine (1992)	Spain (2019)	United Kingdom (2044)
Moldova (1993)	Taiwan (2019)	Puerto Rico (2044)
Belarus (1994)	South Korea (2020)	Kazakhstan (2045)
Russian Federation (1994)	Austria (2024)
Czech Republic (1995)	Finland (2027)
Poland (1997)	China (2029)
Germany (2006)
Japan (2008)
Croatia (2008)
Slovenia (2008)

Source: Adapted from Jackson and Howe (2008); excludes countries with populations of less than 1 million.

Figure 1. Elderly population by country (as a proportion of the total population). Reproduced with permission from Culhane (2001, p. 6).

Figure 2. Elderly support ratio: actual workers/population aged over 64. Reproduced with permission from Culhane (2001, p. 10).

Table 2. Aging and labor force change in major European and other countries, 2009–2050.

	% Change in
	Total population	Population 15–60	Population 60+
Bulgaria	–29	–46	13
Belarus	–24	–42	46
Ukraine	–23	–40	21
Japan	–20	–37	19
Romania	–19	–38	50
Poland	–16	–38	70
Russia	–18	–36	47
Germany	–14	–32	32
Hungary	–11	–26	33
South Korea	–9	–36	146
Portugal	–6	–26	54
Europe	–6	–24	47
Italy	–5	–24	41
Greece	–2	–23	54
Czech Republic	–1	–23	57
Denmark	1	–6	29
Austria	2	–18	59
Finland	2	–10	36
China	5	–17	175
Netherlands	5	–9	53
Belgium	8	–7	52
France	9	–6	56
Switzerland	13	–4	56
Spain	14	–13	93
Sweden	14	4	40
United Kingdom	18	7	51
United States	28	15	97
Canada	32	9	116
Ireland	39	17	164

Source: OCED (2011).

Table 3. Median age by country, 1950–2050.

Country	Year 1950	Year 2000	Year 2050
United States	30.0	35.1	41.7
United Kingdom	34.6	37.7	42.5
Russia	25.0	36.5	44.0
France	34.5	37.7	44.8
China	23.9	29.6	45.2
Canada	29.0	38.6	45.3
Germany	35.4	40.0	51.7
Japan	22.3	41.4	55.1

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects (2007).

Table 4. Countries whose median age is projected to be 50 or over by 2050.

Taiwan	56.3	Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region (SAR)	54.0	Armenia	52.3
Japan	56.2	Ukraine	54.0	Croatia	52.1
Bulgaria	55.9	Romania	53.9	Cuba	52.0
South Korea	55.5	Slovakia	53.9	Germany	51.8
Slovenia	55.3	Latvia	53.8	Belarus	51.7
Czech Republic	55.0	Italy	53.5	Hungary	51.2
Poland	54.4	Greece	53.3	Portugal	51.1
Singapore	54.3	Lithuania	52.8	Austria	50.9
Spain	54.2	Bosnia &		Georgia	50.2
		Herzegovina	52.7

Excludes countries with populations < 1 million.

Source: UN World Population Prospects (2007); for demographic scenario, see The Graying of the Great Powers, Appendix 1, section 3.

Figure 3. Working age population (aged 20–60) by country, 2000–2050 (index 2000 = 100). Reproduced with permission from Culhane (2001, p. 8).

Figure 4. United States and developed world population as a percentage of world total.

Source: UN World Population Prospects (2007); for demographic scenario, see The Graying of the Great Powers, Appendix 1, section 3.

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