Failing to mitigate COVID-19 severity: the case of Brazil

Figures & data

Figure 1. Mobility % Change by Federative Unit.

Figure 7. Map of Brazil by Maximum Weekly Deaths and RPR score.

Figure 2. Population 80+ vs. New Weekly Deaths per 100,000.

Figure 3. Residential Mobility and New Deaths per 100,000 individuals.

Figure 4. (a) RE Marginal Effects of Responsiveness at increasing levels of RPR (95% Confident Intervals) and (b) GAM Perspective Plot.

Figure 5. Predictive Margins of New Deaths per 100k (Log) for different levels of Responsiveness.

Figure 6. Predicted Values vs Actual Values of New Deaths per 100k (log).

Table A. Hypothesis Testing (t-test) Max Daily Deaths per 100k – High vs. Low RPR.

Group	Obs.	Mean	Std. Err.	Std. Dev.	95% Conf. Interval
Low	407	7.0705	0.1059	2.1374	6.8622 7.2788
High	442	6.3639	0.1535	3.2279	6.0621 6.6656
Combined	849	6.7026	0.0954	2.7804	6.5153 6.8899
Difference		0.7067	0.1896		0.3346 1.0788

Ha2: mean (Low RPR) – mean (High RPR) > 0 p-value: 0.0001.

Table B. Hypothesis Testing (t-test) Cumulative Deaths per 100k – High vs. Low RPR.

Group	Obs.	Mean	Std. Err.	Std. Dev.	95% Conf. Interval
Low	407	41.5816	1.6515	33.3171	38.3351 44.8281
High	442	36.2815	1.5967	33.5685	33.1435 39.4196
Combined	849	38.8223	1.1509	33.5333	36.5635 41.0812
Difference		5.3001	2.2978		0.7899 9.8102

Ha2: mean (Low RPR) – mean (High RPR) > 0 p-value: 0.0107.

Table C. Random Effects Regression with AR (1) Disturbance (Standardized Coef.) and GAM Results.

Logged Weekly New Deaths (per 100k)	(Model 1)	(Model 2)	(Model 3)	(Model 4)
	Random Effects Panel			GAM
Log GDPPC	−0.193***	−0.208***	−0.207***	−0.163***
	(0.0736)	(0.0682)	(0.0678)	(0.027)
Pop 80+ (%)	−0.118*	−0.110*	−0.132**	−0.374***
	(0.0678)	(0.0627)	(0.0621)	(0.039)
Log Responsivenesst-2	−0.204***	−0.228***	−0.383***	−0.672***
	(0.0475)	(0.0472)	(0.0325)	(0.038)
RPR		−0.0194	−0.0260	−0.034
		(0.0534)	(0.0531)	(0.030)
Log Responsivenesst-2*RPR		−0.0989***	−0.0996***	−0.094***
		(0.0278)	(0.0283)	(0.013)
% Change Mobilityt-2	−0.110**	−0.122***	−0.169***	−0.706***
	(0.0440)	(0.0435)	(0.0377)	(0.040)
Excess Bed Capacity	−0.0351	−0.0557	−0.115*	−0.120***
	(0.0720)	(0.0669)	(0.0654)	(0.025)
Urbanization	0.164**	0.188***	0.185***	0.154***
	(0.0769)	(0.0718)	(0.0714)	(0.030)
Week	1.580***	0.151***
	(0.2600)	(0.2545)
Week Squared	−1.406***	−1.359***
	(0.2047)	(0.1997)
Constant	0.146***	0.150***	0.180***	0.324***
	(0.0593)	(0.0627)	(0.0504)	(0.034)
Observations	721	721	721	774
Number of States	27	27	27	27
Within R-squared	0.45	0.50	0.53
Between R-squared	0.31	0.32	0.36
Overall R-squared	0.42	0.47	0.47
Adjusted R-squared				0.83
Null Deviance Explained				0.84

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table D. Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data (H0: no first order autocorrelation).

F-Statistic	15.145
Prob > F	0.0006

Table E. Levin-Lin-Chu Unit Root Test for Logged New Deaths (p 100k) (Ha: Panels are Stationary) (AR Common Across Panels).

Adjusted t-statistic	P-value
−8.269	0.0000

Table F. Im-Pesaran-Shin Unit Root Test for Logged New Deaths (p 100k) (Ha: Some panel are Stationary) (AR Panel Specific).

${\mathrm{Z}}_{\mathrm{t}-\mathrm{b}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{r}}$ Statistic	P-value
−11.5169	0.0000

Table G: Random Effects Regression with AR (1) Disturbance (Standardized Coef.) Results (Pop 60 and older).

Logged Weekly New Deaths (per 100k)	(Model 1)	(Model 2)	(Model 3)
	Random Effects Panel
Log GDPPC	−0.169***	−0.1835***	−0.1794***
	(0.0745)	(0.0692)	(0.0688)
Pop 60+ (%)	−0.173*	−0.1620*	−0.1849**
	(0.0721)	(0.0671)	(0.0667)
Log Responsivenesst-2	−0.204***	−0.228***	−0.385***
	(0.0474)	(0.0471)	(0.0325)
RPR		−0.0194	−0.0109
		(0.0534)	(0.0533)
Log Responsivenesst-2*RPR		−0.0989***	−0.1005***
		(0.0278)	(0.0283)
% Change Mobilityt-2	−0.118**	−0.130***	−0.1749***
	(0.0441)	(0.0436)	(0.0377)
Excess Bed Capacity	−0.0029	−0.0268	−0.0855*
	(0.0737)	(0.0683)	(0.0654)
Urbanization	0.160**	0.181***	0.178***
	(0.0776)	(0.0717)	(0.0713)
Week	1.580***	1.589***
	(0.2600)	(0.2596)
Week Squared	−1.406***	−1.407***
	(0.2043)	(0.2043)
Constant	0.145***	0.145***	0.181***
	(0.0592)	(0.0592)	(0.0504)
Observations	721	721	721
Number of States	27	27	27
Within R-squared	0.45	0.50	0.53
Between R-squared	0.40	0.40	0.40
Overall R-squared	0.44	0.49	0.49
Adjusted R-squared
Null Deviance Explained

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table H: Random Effects AR (1) Regression Unstandardized Coefficients.

	(1)	(2)
VARIABLES	New Deaths per 100k (Log)	New Deaths per 100k (Log)
Log GDPPC	−0.594***	−0.640***
	(0.225)	(0.210)
Log Responsivenesst-2	−0.297***	0.626**
	(0.0269)	(0.266)
RPR		−4.440***
		(1.209)
Log Responsivenesst-2*RPR		−0.934***
		(0.266)
% Change Mobility t-2	−0.0117***	−0.0133***
	(0.00303)	(0.00296)
Excess Bed Capacity	−3.31e-05	−3.90e-05*
	(2.39e-05)	(2.23e-05)
Urbanization	0.0233**	0.0270***
	(0.0111)	(0.0104)
Pop 80+ (%)	−32.19**	−30.67**
	(15.51)	(14.41)
Constant	3.897**	8.422***
	(1.855)	(2.150)
Observations	721	721
Number of States	27	27
Within R-square	0.49	0.53
Between R-square	0.31	0.33
Overall R-square	0.42	0.47

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.