Determinants of manufacturing industry exports in European Union member states: a panel data analysis

Figures & data

Table 1. EU exports of manufactured goods 2009 by industry affiliation (%).

Nace	Commodity description	EU-27	Nace	Commodity description	EU-27
C10	Food	46.8	C22	Rubber & plastics	65.5
C11	Beverages	69.0	C23	Non-metallic mineral prod.	50.2
C12	Tobacco	68.3	C24	Basic metals	35.0
C13	Textiles	29.5	C25	Metal products	49.3
C14	Clothing	32.5	C26	Computers, elec. & optical	24.3
C15	Leather & footwear	38.6	C27	Electrical equipment	41.7
C16	Wood & wood products	50.1	C28	Machinery n.e.c.	50.3
C17	Paper	57.1	C29	Motor vehicles	55.5
C18	Printing	57.2	C30	Other transport eq.	49.0
C19	Refined petroleum	76.0	C31	Furniture	50.9
C20	Chemicals	32.8	C32	Other manufacturing	32.0
C21	Pharmaceuticals	49.5

Source: European Commission (2011).

Table 2. The recent literature review of the determinants of export performance.

Authors	Region/ Country	Period	Dependent variable	Independent variables	Methodology
Allard et al. (2005)	France, Germany, Italy, Spain	late 1970s or early 1980s-2004	export of manufactured goods, export of goods/services	foreign/ domestic demand, rel. prices, reer, capacity util. rate	error correction model
Allard (2009)	Czech R., Hungary, Poland, Slovakia,	2002–2007	export	world demand, FDI stock, price competitiveness	error correction model
European Commission (2010a)	Austria, Germany, Spain, France, Italy	1980–2008, except France 1980–2000	real export of goods and services	foreign demand, reer	Johansen (1991, 1995) maximum likelihood method
European Commission (2010b)	euro area	1989–2009	extra euro area export	foreign income, reer, intermediate imports	Dynamic Ordinary Least Square estimator
Bayoumi, Harmsen, and Turunen (2011)	euro area	1995–009	total export volumes	foreign demand, reer, EMU (dummy variable)	fixed effect model

Source: Author’s compilation.

Table 3. Data description and sources.

Variable	Data description	Source
Manufacturing industry exports	Merchandise trade matrix; manufactured goods (SITC 5 to 8 less 667 and 68)	UNCTAD
High-tech industry exports	Merchandise trade matrix; manufactures with high skill and technology intensity	UNCTAD
Foreign demand	Gross domestic product at market prices; European Union (27 countries)	Eurostat
Real effective exchange rate	Real Effective Exchange Rate (deflator: consumer price indices – 27 trading partners)	Eurostat
Industrial production	Volume index of production; manufacturing; data adjusted by working days	Eurostat
Labour cost	Labour cost index; manufacturing; percentage change on previous period; wages and salaries (total)	Eurostat
Domestic demand	Gross domestic product	WEO
Dummy variable (Econ. crisis)	Gross domestic product per capita, current prices, US dollars	Eurostat

Note: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE); World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Source: Specified databases.

Table 4. Results of the dynamic panel models; dependent variable: manufacturing industry exports.

Variable	System GMM	LSDVc	LSDV
Lagged dependent variable	0.207^*** (0.0648)	0.443^*** (0.0482)	0.383^*** (0.0432)
Foreign demand	0.663^*** (0.199)	0.787^*** (0.155)	0.841^*** (0.149)
Real effective exchange rate	0.137 (0.194)	−0.0308 (0.111)	−0.00803 (0.107)
Industrial production	1.019^*** (0.0696)	0.528^*** (0.0736)	0.579^*** (0.0685)
Labour cost	−0.00126 (0.0014)	−0.000947 (0.00131)	−0.000679 (0.00126)
Domestic demand	0.219^** (0.0865)	0.113^** (0.0557)	0.130^**(0.0508)
Dummy variable (econ.crisis)	−0.101^*** (0.0241)	−0.135^*** (0.0217)	−0.122^*** (0.0189)
C	−5.696^*** (1.285)		−4.219^*** (0.793)
Number of observations	293	293	293
Number of countries	27	27	27
Number of instruments	27
m1 test (p-value)	0.2415
m2 test (p-value)	0.1351
Sargan test (p-value)	0.1486
R^2			0.913

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Note:

* ,

** ,

*** indicate statistical significance at levels of 10, 5 and 1%; standard errors are in brackets; for system GMM robust standard errors are in brackets.

Table 5. Results of the dynamic panel models; dependent variable: high-tech manufacturing industry exports.

Variable	System GMM	LSDVc	LSDV
Lagged dependent variable	0.557^*** (0.0943)	0.678^*** (0.0449)	0.598^*** (0.0407)
Foreign demand	−0.306 (0.573)	0.156 (0.232)	0.266 (0.231)
Real effective exchange rate	0.495 (0.327)	0.0980 (0.175)	0.178 (0.176)
Industrial production	0.870^***(0.195)	0.426^*** (0.104)	0.488^*** (0.100)
Labour cost	−0.00497^* (0.00280)	−0.00280 (0.00195)	−0.00259 (0.00198)
Domestic demand	0.361^** (0.174)	0.213^** (0.0839)	0.232^*** (0.0804)
Dummy variable (econ.crisis)	−0.141^*** (0.0366)	−0.140^*** (0.0297)	−0.123^*** (0.0277)
C	−4.349 (2.762)		−3.404^*** (1.284)
Number of observations	293	293	293
Number of countries	27	27	27
Number of instruments	27
m1 test (p-value)	0.0266
m2 test (p-value)	0.3103
Sargan test (p-value)	0.1119
R^2			0.881

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Note:

^* ,

^** ,

^*** indicate statistical significance at levels of 10%, 5% and 1%; for system GMM robust standard errors are in brackets.

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