IMF lending arrangements in emerging and developing countries – participation and prediction

Figures & data

Table

Interval Z	Assessment
Z<0	Country receives IMF financing
Z ≥ 0	Country does not receive IMF financing

Table

Subject Descriptor	Scale
Gross domestic product, constant prices	National currency
Gross domestic product, constant prices	Percent change
Gross domestic product, current prices	National currency
Gross domestic product, current prices	US dollars
Gross domestic product, deflator	Index
Gross domestic product per capita, constant prices	National currency
Gross domestic product per capita, current prices	National currency
Gross domestic product per capita, current prices	US dollars
Output gap in percent of potential GDP	Percent of potential GDP
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP	Current international dollar
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP	Current international dollar
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) share of world total	Percent
Implied PPP conversion rate	National currency per current international dollar
Total investment	Percent of GDP
Gross national savings	Percent of GDP
Inflation, average consumer prices	Index
Inflation, average consumer prices	Percent change
Inflation, end of period consumer prices	Index
Inflation, end of period consumer prices	Percent change
Six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR)	Percent
Volume of imports of goods and services	Percent change
Volume of Imports of goods	Percent change
Volume of exports of goods and services	Percent change
Volume of exports of goods	Percent change
Value of oil imports	US dollars
Value of oil exports	US dollars
Unemployment rate	Percent of total labour force
Employment	Persons
Population	Persons
General government revenue	National currency
General government revenue	Percent of GDP
General government total expenditure	National currency
General government total expenditure	Percent of GDP
General government net lending/borrowing	National currency
General government net lending/borrowing	Percent of GDP
General government structural balance	National currency
General government structural balance	Percent of potential GDP
General government primary net lending/borrowing	National currency
General government primary net lending/borrowing	Percent of GDP
General government net debt	National currency
General government net debt	Percent of GDP
General government gross debt	National currency
General government gross debt	Percent of GDP
Gross domestic product corresponding to fiscal year, current prices	National currency
Current account balance	US dollars
Current account balance	Percent of GDP
Foreign direct investment, net	Current US dollar
Foreign direct investment, net inflows	Percent of GDP
Foreign direct investment, net inflows	Current US dollar
Total reserves	Percent of total external debt
Total reserves in months of imports
Total reserves minus gold	Current US dollar
Exports of goods and services	Current US dollar
Imports of goods and services	Current US dollar
Real effective exchange rate	Index (2005 = 100)
Real interest rate	Percent

Table

Countries with Financing Agreements	Score	Countries without Financing Agreements	Score
Afghanistan	1.48	Algeria	1.17
Antigua and Barbuda	-2.59	Argentina	1.06
Armenia	-2.77	Azerbaijan	1.53
Bangladesh	1.13	Bolivia	0.75
Benin	-0.21	Brazil	0.04
Bosnia and Herzegovina	-0.83	Bulgaria	0.15
Burkina Faso	-0.06	Cambodia	0.44
Burundi	-0.51	Cameroon	0.35
Central African Republic	-0.20	Cape Verde	0.14
Colombia	-0.31	Chad	0.02
Comoros	-0.84	China	2.02
Cote d’Ivoire	-0.28	Croatia	0.21
Gambia	-1.67	Dominica	0.79
Georgia	-0.07	Ecuador	1.03
Grenada	-2.59	Egypt	0.02
Guinea	-1.19	Equatorial Guinea	0.36
Guinea-Bissau	-0.28	Ghana	1.21
Haiti	0.37	Guyana	-0.32
Iraq	-0.04	India	1.18
Jordan	-0.47	Indonesia	1.21
Kenya	0.34	Kazakhstan	1.44
Kosovo	-0.88	Lao PDR	-0.34
Kyrgyz Republic	-0.61	Lithuania	0.41
Lesotho	0.36	Mauritius	0.24
Liberia	-2.08	Nepal	0.80
Macedonia	0.26	Nigeria	1.18
Malawi	-0.01	Panama	0.62
Mali	-0.08	Papua New Guinea	1.38
Mauritania	-0.81	Philippines	0.84
Mexico	0.56	Russia	0.85
Moldova	-1.49	Samoa	-0.55
Morocco	-0.39	Sudan	-0.30
Niger	-0.99	Thailand	0.26
Poland	0.01	Trinidad and Tobago	0.12
Romania	-0.45	Tunisia	-0.75
Sao Tome and Principe	-0.88	Turkey	0.42
Serbia	-0.65	Uganda	0.22
Seychelles	-1.75	Uruguay	0.41
Sierra Leone	-0.22	Uzbekistan	1.54
Solomon Islands	0.74	Venezuela	1.09
St. Kitts and Nevis	-1.24	Vietnam	0.89
Tanzania	0.21	Zimbabwe	-1.43

Table

Countries with Financing Arrangements	Reporting year	Score	Prediction Right?	Countries without Financing Arrangements	Reporting year	Score	Prediction Right?
Albania	2005	0.52	NO	Bahamas	2011	0.62	YES
Angola	2008	2.17	NO	Bahrain	2011	1.19	YES
Barbados	1991	-0.96	YES	Bhutan	2011	0.19	YES
Belarus	2008	-0.72	YES	Botswana	2011	0.95	YES
Belize	1984	-0.03	YES	Brunei Darussalam	2011	0.86	YES
Chile	1985	0.69	NO	Eritrea	2011	1.02	YES
Congo, Dem. Rep.	2008	-0.57	YES	Fiji	2011	0.66	YES
Congo, Rep.	2007	-1.19	YES	Iran	2011	1.47	YES
Costa Rica	2008	-0.11	YES	Kiribati	2011	-1.86	NO
Djibouti	2007	-0.70	YES	Kuwait	2011	3.30	YES
Dominican Republic	2009	-0.01	YES	Lebanon	2011	0.22	YES
El Salvador	2008	-0.40	YES	Libya	2011	-8.00	NO
Ethiopia	2008	1.30	NO	Malaysia	2011	1.46	YES
Gabon	2003	-0.81	YES	Marshall Islands	2011	-1.20	NO
Guatemala	2008	-0.04	YES	Micronesia	2011	-1.52	NO
Honduras	2009	-0.64	YES	Montenegro	2011	1.19	YES
Hungary	2007	-1.34	YES	Myanmar	2011	0.64	YES
Jamaica	2009	-1.16	YES	Namibia	2011	0.36	YES
Latvia	2007	-0.07	YES	Oman	2011	1.77	YES
Madagascar	2005	-0.06	YES	Qatar	2011	3.79	YES
Maldives	2008	-0.59	YES	Saudi Arabia	2011	2.63	YES
Mongolia	2009	-0.69	YES	South Africa	2011	0.17	YES
Mozambique	2008	-0.11	YES	South Sudan	2011	1.01	YES
Nicaragua	2006	-0.06	YES	St. Lucia	2011	0.99	YES
Pakistan	2007	-0.12	YES	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	2011	-2.09	NO
Paraguay	2005	-0.27	YES	Suriname	2011	0.37	YES
Peru	2006	1.25	NO	Swaziland	2011	-0.89	NO
Rwanda	2005	1.34	NO	Syria	2011	0.19	YES
Senegal	2008	-0.19	YES	Timor-Leste	2011	3.02	YES
Sri Lanka	2008	-0.37	YES	Tonga	2011	0.49	YES
Tajikistan	2008	-0.47	YES	Turkmenistan	2011	1.53	YES
Togo	2007	-0.38	YES	Tuvalu	2011	-2.40	NO
Ukraine	2009	-2.40	YES	United Arab Emirates	2011	1.26	YES
Yemen	2009	-0.34	YES	Vanuatu	2011	0.36	YES
Zambia	2007	0.29	YES