Correlation and causation between the UN Human Development Index and national and personal wealth and resource exploitation

Figures & data

Figure 1. Schematic to illustrate the steps in calculating the UN HDI. Source: Adapted from UNDP (2014).

Table 1. Summarising the data used for this study, including basic data statistics and sources. See text for further details.

Dataset	Coverage period	Number of countries used in analysis	Source
UN HDI and HDI components	1980, 1985, 1990, 2000, then annually 2005–2013	173–193, depending on the data pair analysed	UN HDI portal
GDP	Annual 1980–2013	188	World Bank
GDP-per-capita	Annual 1980–2013	193	UN Data
Total national water withdrawals	5-year reporting periods from 1960. Year of reporting within each period is not consistent	182	FAO AQUASTAT
Per-capita water withdrawals	5-year reporting periods from 1960. Year of reporting within each period is not consistent	182	FAO AQUASTAT
Access to safe drinking water	5-year reporting periods from 1960. Year of reporting within each period is not consistent	182	FAO AQUASTAT
Electricity generation	Annual 1980–2013	173	US Energy Information Administration
Electricity consumption	Annual 1980–2013	173	US Energy Information Administration
Access to electricity	1990, 2000, 2010, 2012	183	World Bank

Source: Authors.

Figure 2. Correlations between the GDP and (a) the HDI, n = 2054; (b) life expectancy, n = 2287; (c) expected years of schooling, n = 2099; (d) mean years of schooling, n = 1987; and (e) GNI-per-capita, n = 2171. Source: Authors.

Figure 3. Correlations between the GDP-per-capita and (a) the HDI, n = 1781; (b) life expectancy, n = 2232; (c) expected years of schooling, n = 2151; (d) mean years of schooling, n = 1987; and (e) GNI-per-capita, n = 2083. Source: Authors.

Figure 4. Correlations between access to safe drinking water and (a) the HDI, n = 333; (b) life expectancy, n = 349; (c) expected years of schooling, n = 350; (d) mean years of schooling, n = 334; and (e) GNI-per-capita, n = 337. Source: Authors.

Figure 5. Correlations between access to electricity and (a) the HDI, n = 643; (b) life expectancy, n = 407; (c) expected years of schooling, n = 697; (d) mean years of schooling, n = 647; and (e) GNI-per-capita, n = 682. Source: Authors.

Figure 6. Multi-spatial CCM results to discern causality between: (a) HDI and GDP-per-capita; (b) HDI and access to safe drinking water; and (c) HDI and access to electricity. Solid lines show the mean of the simulations. Dashed lines indicate standard deviation. Stable values of rho significantly >0 imply causation. Source: Authors.