Modelling of regulatory factor and managerial impact assessment in the regional economy sectors: a case-study of the Kaliningrad region (Russia)

Figures & data

Table 1. Estimation of the need for resources for investment project implementation.

Resource	Resource capacity
Accommodation availability regarding season	1 hotel (accommodating 80 people)
Cafes, restaurants and other catering facilities	1 facility (100 seats)
Demand for tourist trips (number of packages)	3,000
Number of businesses and organisations providing travel services, including museums	—
Hotel administrators	5 people
Waiters, cooks in restaurants	25 people
Tour operators and travel agents	—
Guides	2 people
Leisure and entertainment facilities (clubs, entertainment centres, saunas, swimming pools, gyms, etc.)	5 facilities (Capacity: 50 people per hour)
Import of products in order to ensure the development of the sector per year	22.5 tons
Daily air flights	6
Sale of souvenirs per year	3000 units / 5 mln RUB
Investments	555 mln rouble
Yearly tourist flow	3000 people

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Table

Indicators	Modelling results
	Variant 1	Variant 2	Variant 3
1. Reduction of value added in the chain when currency rates change, %
- Value added in the optimal price range and demand volume of	–10.29	–9.37	–8.54
- Added value at scenario (actual) prices and volumes of demand	–12.84	–10.63	–8.65
2. Ratio of value added for scenario (actual) and optimal prices and volumes of demand, %
- before exchange rates change	81.12	81.42	81.82
- after exchange rates change	78.82	80.29	81.82
3. Value added growth with a decrease in the share of imported components in comparison with the base year, %
before exchange rates change	100.00	100.63	101.70
- agricultural producers	100.00	100.80	102.15
- processors	100.00	100.66	101.76
after exchange rates change	100.00	103.18	106.59
- agricultural producers	100.00	104.04	108.37
- processors	100.00	103.33	106.91

Source: Authors' calculations.

Table A1. Initial data for modelling in SATTKO.

Parameter	Value
1. Cargo	Furniture and parts
2. Cargo value, RUB	750,000
3. Cargo weight, kg	3,700
4. Shipment distance, km	1,500
5. Additional handling
– processing of shipment documentation (+/–)	+
– customs clearance (+/–)	+
– insurance (+/–)	+ (0.1 %)
6. Additional cargo storage operations:
– loading (+/–)
– palletising (+/–)	+
– crating (+/–)	+
– forced storage, days	5
– contractual storage, days	5
7. Additional transportation services:
– cargo pick-up (+/–)	+
– shipment to destination (+/–)	+
8. Available transportation:
– automobile (+/–)	+
– rail (+/–)	+
– water (ferry) (+/–)	+

Source: SATTKO; Authors’ calculations.

Table A2. Simulation results in SATTCO.

Parameter	Value
	Auto	Rail	Water (ferry)
Transportation cost (excluding mandatory payments), RUB.	13,820	18,275	48,584
Transportation cost (including mandatory payments), Rub.	15,711	19,849	48,752
Integrated delivery, RUB	38,706	45,982	58,127
Added value, RUB.	25,758	19,590	13,502
Selection of the optimal mode of transport, taking into account the integrated shipping costs	Automobile

Source: SATTKO; Authors’ calculations.

Table A3. Initial data for modelling the level of localisation of furniture production (for hypothetical furniture products).

Parameter	Baseline value	Variant 1	Variant 2	Variant 3
Average nominal exchange rate for the period from the beginning of the year
Euro, RUB	67.43	68.4	68.71	75.52
US Dollar, RUB	60.66	61.63	67.94	71.60
Structure of supplies of imported materials and components, %
Russia	6.0%	15.0%	15.0%	20.0%
China	12.0%	12.0%	20.0%	30.0%
EU	82.0%	73.0%	65.0%	50.0%
The price of sales of products (without mark-up), roubles.
Factual	5147.97	5147.97	5147.97	5147.97
Optimal	3203.46	3203.46	3203.46	3203.46
Sales, units
Factual	535.0	535.0	535.0	535.0
Optimal	1362.0	1362.0	1362.0	1362.0

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Table A4. Results of modelling the level of localisation of furniture production (for conventional furniture products), without optimisation.

Financial results and efficiency	Baseline value	Variant 1	Variant 2	Variant 3
Revenue, thousand RUB	2754.16	2754.16	2754.16	2754.16
Full cost price, thousand RUB	1903.50	1956.06	1969.98	2049.52
Acquisition costs of imported materials and components	879.03	926.65	940.58	1020.12
Russia	52.74	83.83	83.83	83.83
China	105.48	107.69	118.71	125.11
EU	720.81	735.13	738.03	811.18
Profit, thousand RUB	841.49	798.11	784.18	704.64
Return on sales, %	30.7%	29.0%	28.5%	25.6%
Added value, thousand RUB	1537.18	1513.01	1504.17	1453.70

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Figure 1. Dynamics of added value in the chain (with milk and dairy products as an example) given a decrease in the share of imported components in comparable prices; million roubles. Source: Authors’ calculations.

Figure 2. Dynamics of the added value of the participants in the chain (with milk and dairy products as an example) given a decrease in the share of imported components in comparable prices, million roubles: (a) added value in the chain in the optimal prices range and with optimal volume of demand; (b) added value at scenario (actual) prices and demand volumes. Source: Authors’ calculations.

Figure 3. Structure of the integrated cost of cargo delivery to SATTKO by mode of transport, %. Source: Authors’ calculations.

Figure 4. Value added in the tourism and recreation sector and related industries, according to investment project simulation results, mn roubles. Source: Authors’ calculations.