Drivers of radicalisation of youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of continuous variables.

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Index	4,500	55.176	13.867	0	100
Number of household members	4,500	2.376	1.327	0	10

Source: Own calculations from USAID/BiH Youth Survey 2017.

Figure 1. Number of respondents by age. Source: Own calculations from USAID/BiH Youth Survey 2017.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of indicative variables.

Category	Frequency	Percentage
Respondent’s sex – Male	2,217	49.27
Respondent’s sex – Female	2,283	50.73
Have relatives abroad	590	16.86
Don't have relatives abroad	2,910	83.14
Marital status
Unmarried/single	2,720	60.44
Married	1,619	35.98
Widowed/Widower	31	0.69
Divorced/Separated	112	2.49
Domestic partnership	18	0.4
Education level
No education	29	0.65
Elementary school	930	20.87
Secondary school, three-year program	917	20.58
Secondary school, four-year program	1,984	44.52
Junior college (two-year university programme)	63	1.41
University education, bachelor	463	10.39
University education, Masters or PhD	70	1.57
Employment status
Unemployed, with occasional jobs, activities	32	0.71
Unemployed, actively looking for work	78	1.73
Unemployed/pupil/student, not looking for a job	4,273	94.96
Unpaid everyday house/farm work, looking	90	2
Frequency of voting in elections
Regularly	1,639	59.41
Sometimes	382	13.85
Rarely	353	12.79
Never	385	13.95
Engaged in civic activism	213	6.09
Not engaged in civic activism	3,287	93.91
Access to Internet
Yes	3,242	92.63
No, but I have occasional access to the Internet	175	5
No and I mainly (or completely) do not	83	2.37
Lives in an urban area	1,921	42.69
Lives in a rural area	2,579	57.31
Ethnicity
Bosniak	2,320	51.56
Serb	1,315	29.22
Croat	523	11.62
Roma	16	0.36
Bosnian and Herzegovinian	180	4
Religion
Muslim	2,393	53.18
Catholic	495	11
Orthodox	1,327	29.49
Agnostic	16	0.36
Atheist	41	0.91
None	105	2.33
Actively practicing religion
Yes, regularly all the rules	252	5.98
Mainly yes	1,169	27.73
Only the main rules	1,909	45.29
No – I am a believer but don’t practice	762	18.08
No answer	123	2.92

Source: Own calculations from USAID/BiH Youth Survey 2017.

Table 3. Number of respondent by region.

Category	Frequency	Percentage
Region
Una-Sana Canton	385	8.56
Posavina Canton	55	1.22
Tuzla Canton	585	13
Zenica-Doboj Canton	380	8.44
Bosnian podrinje Canton	30	0.67
Central Bosnia Canton (Bosniak majority)	245	5.44
Herzegovina-Neretva Canton (Bosniak majority)	150	3.33
West Herzegovina Canton	120	2.67
Sarajevo Canton	535	11.89
Canton 10	110	2.44
Region Banja Luka northwest	680	15.11
Doboj North	245	5.44
Region Bijeljina	245	5.44
Pale east	225	5
Trebinje southeast	85	1.89
Central Bosnia Canton (Croat majority)	145	3.22
Herzegovina-Neretva canton (Croat majority)	170	3.78
Brcko District	110	2.44

Source: Own calculations from USAID/BiH Youth Survey 2017.

Table 4. Results of the model estimation.

Index	Full model	Reduced model
Sex, 1 if female, 0 if male	0.343	0.371
Age dummies, 19 as a benchmark
Age =1 if 20-years-old	−0.030	0.031
Age =1 if 21-years-old	−0.873	−0.743
Age =1 if 22-years-old	−1.213**	−1.204**
Age =1 if 23-years-old	−1.461**	−1.452***
Age =1 if 24-years-old	−1.168**	−1.191**
Age =1 if 25-years-old	−0.597	−0.391
Age =1 if 26-years-old	−1.671***	−1.508**
Age =1 if 27-years-old	−0.357	−0.457
Age =1 if 28-years-old	−0.947	−0.836
Age =1 if 29-years-old	−1.309**	−1.123*
Age =1 if 30-years-old	−1.032	−1.102*
Age =1 if 31-years-old	−1.800**	−2.170***
Age =1 if 32-years-old	−0.838	−1.108*
Age =1 if 33-years-old	−1.208*	−1.217*
Age =1 if 34-years-old	−0.623	−0.749
Household size	0.262***	0.352***
Household’s income	−0.247***	−0.284***
Marital status, single as benchmark
=1 if married, 0 otherwise	0.633**	0.688
=1 if widow/widower, 0 otherwise	−0.866	−0.332
=1 if divorced/separated, 0 otherwise	−0.317	0.085
=1 if domestic relationship, 0 otherwise	0.623	0.254
Ethnicity, Bosniak as a benchmark
=1 if Serb	−2.169	–
=1 if Croat	−4.739	–
=1 if Roma	−2.761	–
=1 if Bosnian and Herzegovinian	−1.826**	–
=1 if Other	−3.975	–
=1 if Does not want to answer	−1.474	–
Religion, Muslim as a benchmark
=1 if Orthodox	5.214	–
=1 if Catholic	1.462	–
Actively practicing religion, ‘Yes, regularly all the rules’ as a benchmark
Mainly yes	−0.661	–
Only the main rules	−1.351***	–
No – I am a believer but don’t practice	−2.695***	–
No answer	−2.424***	–
Education dummies, no education is benchmark
=1 if primary education	2.417	2.850
=1 if secondary education 3 years	2.911	3.227*
=1 if secondary education 4 years	2.609	2.840
=1 if university education 2 years	3.368	3.633*
=1 if university education 4 years	2.875	3.144*
=1 if postgraduate education	4.915**	4.591**
Employment status, employed as a benchmark
=1 if unemployed	4.716**	5.017**
=1 if 1 if student	2.825	3.507**
=1 if unpaid family member	3.940**	4.697**
Voting in elections, benchmark if regularly voting
=1 if voting sometimes	−1.501***	−1.257***
=1 if voting rarely	−1.609***	−1.651***
=1 if voting never	−2.155***	−2.418***
=1 if not engaged in any actions of civic activism, 0 if yes	−3.570***	−3.281***
=1 if having occasional access to Internet, 0 if regular access	−2.277***	−2.380***
=1 if not having access to Internet, 0 if regular access	−3.257***	−3.847***
=1 if never lived abroad, 0 if yes	0.267	–
=1 if not having relatives abroad, 0 if yes	0.206	–
=1 if living in rural area, 0 if living in urban area	0.219	0.261
Region, Una-Sana Canton as benchmark
Posavina Canton	−4.052***	−3.111**
Tuzla Canton	−5.338***	−4.880***
Zenica-Doboj Canton	−7.800***	−7.017***
Bosnian podrinje Canton	−10.373***	−9.794***
Central Bosnia Canton (Bosniak majority)	−8.031***	−7.276***
Herzegovina-Neretva Canton (Bosniak majority)	−4.963***	−4.259***
West Herzegovina Canton	−6.210***	−4.759***
Sarajevo Canton	−7.199***	−6.552***
Canton 10	−6.798***	−5.505***
Region Banja Luka northwest	−5.401***	−5.826***
Doboj North	−2.831***	−2.559***
Region Bijeljina	−4.057***	−3.645***
Pale east	−8.576***	−8.562***
Trebinje southeast	−5.152***	−4.843***
Central Bosnia Canton (Croat majority)	−7.131***	−6.332***
Herzegovina-Neretva canton (Croat majority)	−7.160***	−5.666***
Brcko District	−7.912***	−6.888***
Intercept	59.077***	55.378***
Number of obs	2583	2759
R-squared	0.266	0.249
Prob > F	0.000	0.000

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Source: Own calculations from USAID/BiH Youth Survey 2017.

Appendix A. Structure of the index.

Dimension	Description
Positive youth engagement (Attitudinal; aspirational, intentional; behavioural)	Includes civil society engagement (measuring changes in attitude, aspiration/intention regarding participation in civil society and actual behavioural change of such engagements),	84, 86
	Political engagement. Measured political self-efficacy and behavioural changes of external political efficacy
	Extracurricular activities and voluntary work. Measured changes in attitude, aspiration/intention regarding participation in extracurricular activities, such as sports, cultural, social clubs and organisations, or other community engagement and voluntary work.
Youth–community relations (Attitudinal; aspirational, intentional; behavioural)	Trust and satisfaction – institutions. Measured attitudinal changes regarding trust for local government, intention to vote, etc. and behavioural changes of interactions with local government/public authorities.	18, 19
	Trust and satisfaction – civil society. Measured attitudinal changes regarding civil society, including representativeness, thematic focus, target group, etc.
	Trust and satisfaction – religious institutions. Measured attitudinal changes regarding local religious community, including representativeness, reflection of personal view, and trust for religious leaders.
Economic opportunities (Attitudinal; behavioural)	Feeling of injustice. Measured attitudinal changes in anger, frustration and perceptions of injustice relative to other groups (age, ethnic, political groups)	65, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 100
	Deservedness. Measured attitudinal changes in feeling of deservedness relative to their education or other formal qualifications.
	Economic opportunities. Measured attitudinal changes regarding pessimism/optimism in future professional career, and behavioural changes, such as concrete investment to enhance career opportunities.
Social and life-skills (Attitudinal; behavioural, skills)	Value complexity. Measured attitudinal changes regarding in perceptions of other values, views and opinions	81, 82, 83, 94, 95
	Tolerance and acceptance. Measured attitudinal and behavioural changes linked to tolerance and acceptance of ‘others’ and other groups, including negative stereotypes.
	Trust in neighbours. Measured attitudinal and behavioural changes towards other members of community.
	Social network. Measured personal relations with friends and family – ‘someone to turn to in need of support’.
Risk awareness and community resilience capacity (Knowledge, awareness; Skills)	Awareness of risks and assistance. Measured VE risk awareness and knowledge, including local influencers and groups, rhetoric, persuasion and recruitment practices.	103
	Capacity to self-organise. Measured perceptions of communities’ capacity (including civil society, religious community, etc.) to self-organise to deal with external threats.
	Cooperation. Measured perceptions of community actors capacity and willingness to cooperate to deal with external threats.
Sympathy for VE ideologies and causes (attitudinal)	Sympathy for violent protests. Measured attitudinal changes and expressed sympathy for use of violence as means to achieve a political/religious goal	89
	Sympathy for extremist ideologies. Measured attitudinal changes and expressed sympathy for ‘views considered extreme by the majority’, and whether such groups should be allowed to hold public meetings, publish books, etc. to spread their ideology.
	Support for foreign fighters. Measured attitudinal changes in support for foreign fighters.
Presence of violent extremism in local community (knowledge, awareness)	Violent extremist influences and groups. Measured knowledge of active recruiters, extremist groups and ideologies in, or in close proximity to, the community, and perceptions of that presence as a problem/threat to community.	104