Tourism price normalities in two Adriatic east coast 'euro' countries

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary statistics, December2008-December2014 (monthly data, base period December 2008 = 100).

Year	${\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_t$	${\mathit{IPHISI}}_t$	${\mathit{IPHIEA}}_t$	$\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHISI}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{IPHIEA}}_{t-1}}\right)$	$\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)$
2008M12	100	100	100	0	0
2009M12	115.97	102.52	101.27	.0018	.0570
2010M12	118.41	97.17	103.34	.0021	.0631
2011M12	121.95	99.22	105.31	.0033	.0638
2012M12	124.44	108.47	107.46	.0061	.0514
2013M12	124.32	110.10	108.58	.0041	.0501
2014M12	124.51	110.86	110.58	-.0030	.0510

Source: Authors compilation from MONSTAT, 2020; SORS, 2021.

Note: IPHIMNE – Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry, IPHISI – Slovenian price index in the hospitality industry, IPHIEA – euro area price index in the hospitality industry, $\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHISI}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{IPHIEA}}_{t-1}}\right)$ – real (second-order integration) Slovenian price index in the hospitality industry, and $\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)$ – real (second-order integration) Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry, where CPIMNE is the Montenegrin consumer price index.

Figure 1. Consumer price index, cumulative from December 2008-December 2014.

Note: CPISI – consumer price index in Slovenia, CPIMNE – consumer price index in Montenegro, and IPHIEA – consumer price index in euro area (monthly data, base period December 2008 = 100).

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from (SORS 2021) and MONSTAT (2020).

Table 2. VEC model analysis, unit root test and cointegration test, December 2008–December 2014 (monthly data, base period December 2008 = 100).

Test	Variable	${\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_t$	${\mathit{IPHISI}}_t$	${\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)}_{p=2}$	${\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHISI}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{IPHIEA}}_{t-1}}\right)}_{p=2}$
				Sd
Test of integration (ADF test)		${I(2)}_{(-3.07)}^{\text{***}}$	${I(2)}_{(.03)}$	${I(1)}_{(-2.97)}^{\text{**}}$	${I(1)}_{\{-1.36\}}^{\mathrm{*}}$
Test of autocorrelation (portmanteau test)		${(18.35)}_{\{.11\}}^{\mathrm{*}}$	${(0.55)}_{\left\{1.00\right\}}$	${(5.06)}_{\{.96\}}$	${(11.55)}_{\{.48\}}$
Test of heteroscedasticity (ARCH test)		${(5.25)}_{\{.07\}}^{\text{**}}$	${(0.18)}_{\{.91\}}$	${(1.68)}_{\left\{0.43\right\}}$	${(2.64)}_{\{.27\}}$
Test of normality (Jarque-Bera test)		${(15.36)}_{\{.00\}}^{\text{***}}$	${(1281.3)}_{\{.00\}}^{\text{***}}$	${(2.99)}_{\{.22\}}$	${(0.36)}_{\{.84\}}$
Skewness		-.21	.10	.37	.16
Kurtosis		5.45	25.64	3.81	3.21
Johansen Trace test (cointegration test)				$r_0^{\begin{array}{c}***\\ \left\{44.52\right\}\end{array}}$
$\mathit{VECM}$				${-.064}_{(-5.63)}^{\text{***}}$	${.059}_{(19.133)}^{\text{***}}$
${\mathit{VECM}}_{\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)}^{\beta }$				$1.000$	${-1.438}_{(1.41)}^{\mathrm{*}}$
Δsd January				${.00}_{(.46)}$
Δsd February				${.05}_{(3.50)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd March				${.04}_{(2.91)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd April				${.03}_{1.85}^{\text{**}}$
Δsd May				${-.03}_{(-1.91)}^{\text{**}}$
Δsd June				${-.13}_{(-8.53)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd July				${-.00}_{(-.23)}$
Δsd August				${.08}_{(4.95)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd September				${.04}_{(2.74)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd October				${.07}_{(4.56)}^{\text{***}}$
Δsd November				${-.06}_{(-4.10)}^{\text{***}}$
Constant				${.004}_{(3.92)}^{\text{***}}$	${-.004}_{(-14.06)}^{\text{***}}$

Note: T = 73; {x} – significance value; (x) – $t$ or ${\chi }^2$ statistics value; sd – seasonal dummy; 2 – two lags based on Swarz Criterion; *** significant at 1%; ** significant at 5%; * significant at 10%; VECM – vector error correction model; ${\mathit{VECM}}_{\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)}^{\beta }$ – restrictions on the beta of time-series of real (second-order integration) Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry; $\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHIMNE}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{CPIMNE}}_{t-1}}\right)$ – real (second-order integration) Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry, $\ln \left(\frac{{\mathit{IPHISI}}_{t-1}}{{\mathit{IPHIEA}}_{t-1}}\right)$ – real (second-order integration) Slovenian price index in the hospitality industry, $p=2$ – two lags.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from (SORS 2021) and MONSTAT (2020).

Figure 2. Dynamics of tourism prices, December 2008-December 2014.

Note: IPHIMNE – Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry, IPHISI – Slovenian price index in the hospitality industry, and IPHIEA – euro area price index in the hospitality industry (monthly data, base period December 2008 = 100).

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from (SORS 2021) and MONSTAT (2020).

Figure 3. Dynamics of tourism prices in logarithms (in the first differences), December 2008-December 2014.

Note: log IPHIMNE_CPIMNE – real (second-order integration) Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry captured first, by logarithms, and second, Montenegrin price index in the hospitality industry divided by Montenegrin consumer price index (base period December 2008 = 100).

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from (SORS 2021) and MONSTAT (2020).

MONSTAT (2020). Prices. [Online] Retrieved 31 March 2020 from the Statistical Office of Montenegro. http://www.monstat.org/eng/page.php?id=25&pageid=25.

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SORS. (2021). Data-portal. [Online] Retrieved 31 March 2021 from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia:http://pxweb.stat.si/pxweb/dialog/statfile2.asp.

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