Counterfactual analysis among Covid-19: fiscal and monetary policy for green economic recovery

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Mean	Standard deviation	Skewness	Kurtosis
Three-month treasury bill rate	0.045	0.032	2.798	3.674
Inflation rate	0.007	0.002	2.087	11.654
Output gap	−0.004	0.017	−1.432	11.376
Taxes-to-output ratio	0.082	0.014	0.409	−0.543
Debt-to-output ratio	2.0897	0.275	0.265	−0.176
Government purchases-to-output ratio	0.207	0.176	1.876	3.598

Table 2. The result of the Panel Data regression.

Variable	Emission reduction policy		Renewable energy policy
REP	−0.0387*** (0.003)
GEM		−0.0367*** (0.005)
CO2			−0.0281*** (0.003)
EC				−0.0342*** (0.0761)
GDP	−0.029*** (0.001)	−0.028*** (0.001)	−0.0288*** (0.004)	−0.0332*** (0.004)
R&D Sub for EE	0.532 (0.034)	0.213* (0.008)	0.332 (0.072)	0.371* (0.002)
Tax reduction	0.221*** (0.002)	0.432*** (0.002)	0.2452*** (0.003)	0.321*** (0.002)
E&E grant	−0.422** (0.001)	−0.433*** (0.000)	−0.376*** (0.000)	−0.331*** (0.002)
Constant	1.331 (0.012)	1.332*** (0.132)	1.143*** (0.0324)	1.232*** (0.0217)
AR (1) test	−2.0773 [0.043]	−2.0732 [0.052]	−1.985 [0.067]	−2.658 [0.039]
AR (2) test	−1.543 [0.132]	−1.256 [0.184]	−1.324 [0.143]	−1.2543 [0.153]
Sargan test	18.432 [0.054]	21.432 [0.032]	21.532 [0.14]	15.443 [0.132]
Wald test	15674 [0]	187453 [0]	164837 [0]	353746 [0]
N	472	472	472	472

Note: Standard errors are in parentheses (). ^***= 1% significant level; ^**= 5% significant level and ^*=10% significant level.

Table 3. The result of the Panel Data regression (R&D subsidy for energy and environment).

Variable	Emission reduction policy		Renewable energy policy
REP	−0.0417*** (0.002)
GEM		−0.0261*** (0.004)
CO2			−0.0341*** (0.002)
EC				−0.0242*** (0.0761)
GDP	−0.026*** (0.002)	−0.024*** (0.001)	−0.0254*** (0.004)	−0.0432*** (0.003)
R&D Sub for EE	0.032 (0.014)	0.213* (0.007)	0.332 (0.072)	0.372* (0.002)
Tax reduction	0.321*** (0.002)	0.332*** (0.002)	0.245*** (0.003)	0.321*** (0.002)
E&E grant	−0.322** (0.000)	−0.333*** (0.001)	−0.332*** (0.002)	−0.432*** (0.002)
Constant	1.231 (0.015)	1.323*** (0.154)	1.123*** (0.0324)	1.156*** (0.000)
AR (1) test	−2.0773 [0.012]	−2.0732 [0.022]	−1.985 [0.016]	−2.658 [0.043]
AR (2) test	−1.543 [0.172]	−1.256 [0.154]	−1.324 [0.183]	−1.2543 [0.133]
Wald test	15674 [0]	187453 [0]	164837 [0]	353746 [0]
N	468	462	468	462

Note: Standard errors are in parentheses (). ^***= 1% significant level; ^**= 5% significant level and ^*=10% significant level.

Table 4. Monetary policy.

Coefficient	Active	Passive
A. Mean equation
a0	0.038 (0.000)	0.005 (0.000)
a1	1.119 (0.002)	0.071 (0.258)
a2	0.309 (0.034)	0.265 (0.000)
B. Transition probabilities
Psm,t = active|sm,t − 1 = passive	0.045 (0.000)
Psm,t = active|sm,t − 1 = active	0.876 (0.000)

Table 5. Fiscal policy.

Coefficient	Active	Passive
A. Mean equation
α0	0.060 (0.000)	0.043 (0.000)
α1	−0.002 (0.267)	0.023 (0.000)
α2	−0.054 (0.005)	0.038 (0.178)
α3	−0.084 (0.243)	0.065 (0.254)
B. Transition probabilities
Psf,t = active|sf,t − 1 = passive	0.050 (0.000)
Psf,t = active|sf,t − 1 = active	0.850 (0.000)

Table 6. The result of the Panel Data regression (Fiscal Policy).

Variable	Emission reduction policy		Renewable energy policy
REP	−0.0328*** (0.001)
GEM		−0.0239*** (0.003)
CO2			−0.0321*** (0.001)
EC				−0.0221*** (0.0761)
GDP	−0.027*** (0.003)	−0.025*** (0.002)	−0.029*** (0.001)	−0.046*** (0.005)
R&D Sub for EE	0.142 (0.014)	0.113* (0.006)	0.131 (0.073)	0.199* (0.001)
Tax reduction	0.321*** (0.004)	0.332*** (0.003)	0.232*** (0.003)	0.421*** (0.002)
E&E grant	−0.422** (0.001)	−0.482*** (0.003)	−0.332*** (0.001)	−0.232*** (0.002)
Constant	1.243 (0.012)	1.212*** (0.121)	1.153*** (0.0321)	1.1421*** (0.001)
AR (1) test	−2.032 [0.019]	−2.042 [0.025]	−1.325 [0.017]	−2.321 [0.021]
AR (2) test	−1.321 [0.172]	−1.243 [0.154]	−1.354 [0.183]	−1.432 [0.133]
Wald test	15674 [0]	187453 [0]	164837 [0]	353746 [0]
N	448	462	448	462

Note: Standard errors are in parentheses (). ^***= 1% significant level; ^**= 5% significant level and ^*=10% significant level.

Table 7. Estimated threshold variables.

Threshold variables		Estimated thresholds	95% confidence interval
Model 1	​γ1	0.242	[0.188, 2.121]
	​ γ2	0.643	[0.671, 2.322]
Model 2	​γ1	0.532	[0.542, 2.144]
	​γ2	0.661	[0.722, 2.203]