The covid-19 impact on exports in North Macedonia—firm-level analysis

Figures & data

Table 1. Survey characteristics.

		Survey
		ES2019	FT-XBCS-COVID19
Size	Small	23.71%	10.96%
	Medium	27.84%	26.03%
	Large	48.45%	63.01%
Sector	Manufacturing	57.73%	78.08%
	Retail	13.40%	12.33%
	Other services	28.87%	9.59%
Region	Skopje	35.05%	38.89%
	East	40.21%	36.11%
	West	24.74%	25.00%

Sources: Enterprise Survey 2019 and Finance Think - Export - oriented Business Climate Survey on COVID-19 Impact.

Table 2. Demography of the changes in key firm variables during COVID-19.

		$\Delta \mathit{revenue}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{profit}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{investment}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{capital}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{debt}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{employment}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{salary}\mathit{growth}$
		Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19
	Sample average	–8.89***	5.26*	–6.60*	7.54*	–9.59***	5.71*	–13.23***	7.49***	1.02	0.93	–9.42***	2.33	–5.51***	1.37
Turnover	Less than 10 mil.	–7.34*	4.01	–5.86	2.90	–8.59**	6.22	–13.74***	9.30**	–3.24^†	3.41	–9.71**	2.31	–5.69***	2.36*
	More than 10 mil.	–10.43**	6.50^†	–7.63	12.93*	–10.51*	5.14	–12.48***	5.49^†	5.13	–1.27	–9.11**	2.39	–5.40***	0.54
Size	SMEs	–9.00^†	3.52	–7.01	4.27	–11.84**	3.95	–17.56***	8.23*	–3.48	2.41	–8.28^†	1.36	–7.40***	1.20
	Large	–8.78***	6.22*	–6.40	9.66*	–8.21*	6.59^†	–10.61***	7.00**	3.47	0.24	–10.08***	2.99*	–4.55***	1.50
Ownership	Domestic	–4.54	1.71	–4.47	1.59	–10.22***	7.22*	–10.32**	5.40*	0.42	0.82	–8.72**	2.69	–7.09***	1.26
	Foreign	–14.00***	9.38**	–9.22	14.88**	–8.84^†	3.88	–16.67***	9.98**	1.92	0.89	–10.30**	1.94	–3.63**	1.53
Age	up to 10 years	–12.41*	5.86	–3.01	11.14	0.12	–6.93	–19.54**	4.63	2.77	–0.50	–14.57*	–0.08	–1.57	1.70
	10 to 20 years	–11.72**	4.62	–15.44**	12.83*	–16.75***	13.87**	–16.64***	9.41*	2.28	1.63	–13.72**	3.11	–7.62***	2.24
	over 20 years	–5.26	5.52	–0.11	0.59	–8.39**	5.22^†	–6.47**	6.97**	–1.15	1.23	–3.02^†	3.01^†	–5.88***	0.29
Export share	Low	0.35	–10.18**	–4.60	–0.56	–8.28*	3.28	–13.51**	4.88	3.18	0.29	–12.01^†	3.49	–4.64*	–1.46
	Moderate	–12.68**	8.82^†	–8.22^†	6.17	–11.32***	7.29**	–8.78**	7.62**	–0.48	–1.11	–3.43^†	2.35	–7.50***	4.08**
	High	–11.79**	13.27***	–6.13	15.86*	–8.71	5.64	–18.24***	9.28*	1.27	3.63	–10.40**	1.46	–3.87*	0.32
Labour intensity	Low	–10.69**	5.42	–2.99	5.12	–7.47*	7.95^†	–11.66***	6.52*	1.72	1.70	–11.75**	4.47*	–4.38**	1.22
	High	–6.70^†	5.05	–11.13**	10.53**	–12.16**	2.82	–15.03***	8.55**	0.23	–0.15	–6.48*	–0.40	–6.89***	1.60
Sector	Non-essential	–11.51***	8.43**	–9.51*	11.45**	–10.76***	6.10	–16.53***	8.22**	–0.03	1.94	–12.95***	2.30	–5.41***	0.42
	Essential	–3.94	–0.95	–1.24	–1.39	–6.49	4.40	–6.32*	6.26*	3.72	–2.12	–1.41	2.32	–5.94***	3.44*

Notes: The groups are formed using the following classifications: turnover—whether the firm reported more or less than 10 million euro turnover; size—whether the firm reported more (Large) or less (SME) than 100 employees; ownership—whether the firm has more (Foreign) or less (Domestic) than 50% of foreign capital in total capital; age—whether the firm exists up to 10 years, 10 to 20 years or over 20 years; export-share—whether the firm reported up to 50% (Low), 50% to 90% (moderate), or more than 90% (high) share of exports in total revenue; labour intensity—whether the firm reported that the employees’ salary costs to total costs are more (high) or less (low) than 15%; sector—whether the firm belongs to the following sectors: manufacturing and retail of food, drinks, tobacco and pharmaceutical products is deemed as an essential during COVID-19. If outliers identified, the data was winsorised at the 1st and/or 99th percentiles.

***, **, *,^†Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively.

Sources: Enterprise Survey 2019 and Finance Think - Export - oriented Business Climate Survey on COVID-19 Impact.

Figure 1. Changes in firm revenues during COVID-19 by sector. Source: FT-XBCS-COVID19.

Figure 2. Changes in key firm variables during COVID-19 by sector. Source: FT-XBCS-COVID19.

Table 3. Channels of transmission and changes in key firm variables during COVID-19.

		$\Delta \mathit{revenue}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{profit}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{investment}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{employment}\mathit{growth}$
	VARIABLES	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19
Access to finance	Cap./assets	0.14	–0.09	0.20	–0.13	0.24^†	0.04	–0.08	0.04
	Cash/assets	–0.39*	0.29*	–0.24	–0.05	–0.28	–0.17	0.08	0.01
	Debt/assets	0.51***	–0.44***	0.53**	–0.52**	0.22	0.002	0.20^†	–0.11^†
Supply chain	Inventory/assets	–0.39*	0.21	–0.43*	0.26	–0.48*	0.22	–0.25	0.27***
	Input subs.	1.18	5.81	–5.82	5.20	9.27	2.15	–0.72	5.61^†
	Import repl.	8.06	–12.66^†	3.68	–14.61	8.29	–0.48	0.12	0.31
	Input_man.	–3.98	–2.31	39.59***	–32.12^†	20.33	–12.78	13.56	–6.71
	EU-import	5.38	–10.18^†	–16.39^†	8.63	–16.79^†	20.80*	–22.72*	9.18**
Human capital	LS workers	–18.18*	9.05	–7.94	2.45	–8.42	–19.63	–0.46	–2.91
	MS workers	14.25^†	–5.77	12.30	–8.93	2.86	10.33	12.34	–4.56
	HS workers	6.87	–6.70	–11.34	12.17	3.11	6.05	–7.22	2.97
	Labour inten.	–12.37**	5.03	–9.60	6.54	–5.09	–15.67^†	–0.60	0.79
Demand	Demand shock	–26.55**	29.64**	–5.64	2.76	–20.61**	5.28	–1.46	7.15
	Output man.	8.56	8.67	–14.56	23.91	–17.14	0.77	2.91	4.55
	EU-export	5.95	–2.47	17.09	–8.91	22.17*	–0.44	–3.43	6.06
Competitive.	Output price	2.57	–14.21**	17.30**	–18.39*	–6.46	–6.80	3.41	2.67
	Oper. profit	0.29**	–0.29**	0.25	–0.31*	–0.09	–0.07	0.30*	–0.17*
	Constant	14.18	–49.48*	–40.03	19.28	–40.66	4.31	–33.67	–20.92
	Controls	Included	Included	Included	Included	Included	Included	Included	Included
	Obs.	60	61	60	63	65	62	64	63
	R-sq.	0.52	0.64	0.52	0.44	0.38	0.38	0.44	0.47
	F-stats.	2.43	2.92	2.79	2.07	1.34	1.11	1.74	2.32

Notes: If outliers identified, the data was winsorised at the 1st and/or 99th percentiles.

***, **, *, ^†Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively.

Sources: Enterprise Survey 2019 and Finance Think - Export - oriented Business Climate Survey on COVID-19 Impact.

Table A1. Descriptive statistics of selected variables.

Variable	Obs	Mean	St. dev.	Min	Max
Age	73	20.97	20.61	2	138
No. of workers	73	447.47	886.24	5	6180
Share of foreign capital in total capital (%)	73	46.16	48.12	0	100
Share of exports in total revenue (%)	73	73.28	27.60	5	100
Share of imports in total procurement (%)	73	49.16	30.29	0	100
Revenue over 10 million euro (binary)	73	0.50	0.50	0	1
Greenfield investment in the TIDZ (binary)	73	0.11	0.31	0	1
Greenfield investment outside of the TIDZ (binary)	73	0.14	0.34	0	1
Brownfield investment in existing capacities (binary)	73	0.11	0.31	0	1
Joint venture (foreign and domestic capital) (binary)	73	0.15	0.36	0	1
Revenue growth (%)	68	22.42	50.76	–30	336.5
Profitability growth (%)	70	14.89	33.66	–56.27	258
Investment growth (%)	70	15.49	20.42	–17.36	100
Capital growth (%)	70	15.81	26.63	0	150
Debt growth (%)	64	9.89	32.18	–49	190
Employment growth (%)	71	17.61	38.84	–2.76	220
Salary growth (%)	63	9.17	8.17	–3.27	30

Source: FT-XBCS-COVID19.

Table A2. Definition of variables.

Name		Definition	Source
Dependent variables
$\Delta \text{revenue}$$\mathrm{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	The difference between reported revenue growth rate during COVID-19 and reported average revenue growth rate before COVID-19	FT–XBCS–COVID-19
	During-After COVID-19	The difference between reported expected revenue growth rate for the following year and reported revenue growth rate during COVID-19
$\Delta \text{profit}$$\mathrm{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	The difference between reported profit growth rate during COVID-19 and reported average profit growth rate before COVID-19
	During-After COVID-19	The difference between reported expected profit growth rate for the following year and reported profit growth rate during COVID-19
$\Delta \mathrm{}\mathrm{investment}$$\mathrm{}\mathrm{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	The difference between reported investment growth rate during COVID-19 and reported average investment growth rate before COVID-19
	During-After COVID-19	The difference between reported expected investment growth rate for the following year and reported investment growth rate during COVID-19
$\Delta \text{employment}$$\mathrm{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	The difference between reported employment growth rate during COVID-19 and reported average employment growth rate before COVID-19
	During-After COVID-19	The difference between reported expected employment growth rate for the following year and reported employment growth rate during COVID-19
Independent variables
Input subs. (binary)		1 if all or some of the key inputs have substitutes on domestic market, 0 otherwise	FT–XBCS–COVID-19
Import repl. (binary)		1 if the firm has no possibility to replace disrupted import, 0 otherwise
Input man. (binary)		1 if the firm purchases more than 50% of its procurement from manufacturing sector, 0 otherwise
EU-import (binary)		1 if the firm purchases more than 50% of its procurement from EU, 0 otherwise
LS workers (binary)		1 if the firm reported that it is difficult to find low-skilled workers on market at level 5,6 and 7 on 7-poing Likert scale, 0 otherwise
MS workers (binary)		1 if the firm reported that it is difficult to find medium-skilled workers on market at level 5,6 and 7 on 7-poing Likert scale, 0 otherwise
HS workers (binary)		1 if the firm reported that it is difficult to find high-skilled workers on market at level 5,6 and 7 on 7-poing Likert scale, 0 otherwise
Labour inten. (binary)		1 if the firm reported that the employees’ salary costs to total costs is more than 15%, 0 otherwise
Demand shock (binary)		1 if the firm reported that demand problem is important at level of 5, 6 and 7 on 7-point Likert scale and that it would target new markets due to disrupted demand, 0 otherwise
Output man. (binary)		1 if the firm sells more than 50% of its products/services to manufacturing sector, 0 otherwise
EU-export (binary)		1 if the firm sells more than 50% of its products/services to EU, 0 otherwise
Output price (binary)		1 if the firm reported that its output prices increased during COVID-19, 0 otherwise
Age (log)		Years of presence on the Macedonian market
Export share		The share of exports in total sales (%)
Greenfield inzone (binary) (ref. Domestic)		1 if the firm is greenfield investment located in TIDZ, 0 otherwise
Greenfield outzone (binary) (ref. Domestic)		1 if the firm is greenfield investment located out of TIDZ, 0 otherwise
Brownfield (binary) (ref. Domestic)		1 if the firm is brownfield investment, 0 otherwise
Joint venture (binary) (ref. Domestic)		1 if the firm is joint investment of domestic and foreign capital, 0 otherwise (the reference category for the investment type binary variables is the firm which is completely domestic investment);
Assets (log)		Total Assets in 2019 (in denars)	Central Registry of North Macedonia
Cap./Assets		(Assets-Liabilities)/Assets (%)
Cash/Assets		(Cash + Short-term financial investments)/assets (%)
Debt/Assets		(Short-term debt + long-term debt)/assets (%)
Inventory/Assets		Total inventory/Assets (%)
Oper. profit		(Operating revenues-operating costs)/assets (%)

Table A3. Descriptive statistics and correlations.

		$\Delta \mathit{revenue}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{profit}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{investment}\mathit{growth}$		$\Delta \mathit{employment}\mathit{growth}$
		Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Before-during COVID-19	During-after COVID-19	Cap./ assets	Cash/ assets	Debt/ assets	Inventory/ assets
Mean		–9.281	6.553	–8.675	6.35	–9.701	2.584	–7.994	2.843	49.959	9.605	23.483	20.688
S.D.		20.866	22.876	25.736	27.005	23.758	16.167	19.744	11.61	37.874	13.982	23.191	16.687
Min		–80	–30	–80	–50	–100	–45	–100	–30	–83.282	0.018	0	0
Max		25	90	65	115	55	53	6	50	99.62	64.135	80.336	79.782
Correlations
$\Delta \mathit{revenue}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-during COVID-19	1	–0.76	0.44	–0.43	0.21	–0.31	0.47	–0.45	–0.07	–0.05	0.18	–0.02
	During-after COVID-19		1	–0.36	0.5	–0.17	0.38	–0.16	0.26	0.19	0.1	–0.3	–0.14
$\Delta \mathit{profit}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-during COVID-19			1	–0.84	0.49	–0.14	0.54	–0.38	–0.04	–0.09	0.19	–0.13
	During-after COVID-19				1	–0.29	0.12	–0.3	0.44	0.14	0.03	–0.3	–0.05
$\Delta \mathit{investment}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-during COVID-19					1	–0.4	0.14	–0.12	–0.04	0.06	0.03	–0.04
	During-after COVID-19						1	–0.16	0.34	0.17	0	–0.15	–0.03
$\Delta \mathit{employment}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-during COVID-19							1	–0.6	–0.09	0.08	0.14	–0.19
	During-after COVID-19								1	0.11	–0.04	–0.23	0.21
Cap./assets										1	0.22	–0.63	–0.2
Cash/assets											1	–0.26	–0.27
Debt/assets												1	0.22
Inventory/assets													1
		Input subs.	Import repl.	Input_man.	EU-import	LS workers	MS workers	HS workers	Labour inten.	Demand shock	Output man.	EU-export	Output price	Oper. profit
Mean		0.535	0.236	0.275	0.333	0.141	0.254	0.451	0.444	0.167	0.29	0.389	0.222	6.266
S.D.		0.502	0.428	0.45	0.475	0.35	0.438	0.501	0.5	0.375	0.457	0.491	0.419	14.496
Min		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–70.497
Max		1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	74.588
Correlations
$\Delta \mathit{revenue}$ $\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	–0.13	–0.01	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.12	0.02	0.12	–0.18	0.08	0.07	0.03	–0.03
	During-After COVID-19	0.21	–0.03	–0.09	–0.05	–0.04	–0.07	0.03	–0.06	0.2	0.05	0.11	–0.25	0.1
$\Delta \mathit{profit}$ $\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	–0.22	0	0.11	–0.04	–0.11	–0.05	–0.28	–0.06	0.02	0.06	0.12	0.11	–0.06
	During-After COVID-19	0.13	–0.16	–0.02	0.1	0.14	0.07	0.24	0.04	–0.08	0.11	0.08	–0.16	0.05
$\Delta \mathit{investment}$ $\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	0.12	–0.16	–0.05	–0.14	–0.1	–0.08	–0.06	–0.11	–0.16	–0.1	0.15	–0.07	–0.07
	During-After COVID-19	–0.08	–0.01	0.02	0.14	–0.1	0.04	–0.09	–0.17	0.16	–0.01	–0.17	–0.02	0.06
$\Delta \mathit{employment}$ $\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	–0.09	–0.2	–0.03	–0.37	0.02	0.1	–0.07	0.09	0.06	–0.02	–0.07	0.03	0.1
	During-After COVID-19	0.24	0.14	0.01	0.19	–0.11	–0.15	–0.01	–0.13	0.06	0.14	0.1	0.15	–0.15
Cap./Assets		–0.05	0.05	–0.24	0.08	0.17	0.25	0.11	0	0	–0.11	–0.16	0.07	0.51
Cash/Assets		0.24	–0.13	–0.15	–0.08	0.02	0.11	0.11	–0.01	–0.1	–0.18	0.08	–0.21	0.34
Debt/Assets		–0.17	0.13	0.06	–0.07	0.03	–0.03	0.07	0.05	0.12	0.05	0.18	–0.05	–0.17
Inventory/ Assets		0.1	–0.04	–0.11	–0.1	–0.11	–0.16	–0.02	–0.1	–0.13	–0.11	–0.08	0.02	–0.07
Input subs.		1	–0.27	–0.27	–0.17	–0.11	–0.17	–0.01	–0.12	–0.11	–0.24	0.15	0.23	0.01
Import repl.			1	0.3	0.3	–0.13	–0.1	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.36	0.03	0.02	–0.02
Input_man.				1	0.53	–0.07	–0.07	0.16	0.21	–0.11	0.75	0.19	–0.11	–0.14
EU-import					1	0.14	0.06	0.07	0.26	–0.08	0.43	0.28	–0.17	–0.01
LS workers						1	0.69	0.37	0.2	–0.07	0.01	0.02	–0.02	–0.03
MS workers							1	0.45	0.38	0.08	–0.09	–0.12	–0.16	–0.03
HS workers								1	0.32	0.12	0.07	0.05	–0.15	0.12
Labour inten.									1	0.05	0.17	0.15	–0.28	0.08
Demand shock										1	–0.04	–0.05	–0.06	0
Output man.											1	0.36	–0.12	–0.09
EU-export												1	–0.15	0.05
Output price													1	0
Oper. profit														1
		Age (log)	Export share	Assets (log)	Greenfield inzone	Greenfield outzone	Brownfield	Joint venture
Mean		2.752	73.856	20.244	0.111	0.125	0.111	0.153
S.D.		0.782	26.596	1.67	0.316	0.333	0.316	0.362
Min		0.693	10	14.799	0	0	0	0
Max		4.927	100	23.263	1	1	1	1
Correlations
$\Delta \mathit{revenue}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	0.14	–0.11	–0.06	–0.33	–0.03	–0.03	0.13
	During-After COVID-19	–0.03	0.34	0.02	0.17	–0.03	0.1	-0.04
$\Delta \mathit{profit}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	0.18	0	–0.03	–0.18	–0.06	–0.17	0.08
	During-After COVID-19	−0.07	0.15	0.1	0.04	0	0.36	–0.09
$\Delta \mathit{investment}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	–0.05	–0.02	0.06	–0.24	0.19	0.03	0.05
	During-After COVID-19	0.26	0.14	0.14	0.12	−0.13	−0.15	0
$\Delta \mathit{employment}$$\mathit{growth}$	Before-During COVID-19	0.1	0.09	–0.04	–0.1	–0.07	0.12	0.11
	During-After COVID-19	0.11	–0.09	0.04	0.02	0.05	0	−0.2
Cap./Assets		0.3	–0.01	0	–0.17	–0.15	–0.03	–0.11
Cash/Assets		0.06	0	–0.49	–0.16	–0.03	0.05	0.08
Debt/Assets		–0.29	0.04	0.02	0.23	0.2	–0.17	–0.06
Inventory/ Assets		–0.02	–0.11	0.13	–0.19	0.19	–0.18	0.02
Input subs.		–0.16	0.18	–0.11	–0.07	0.1	0.06	–0.07
Import repl.		–0.06	0	0.12	0.32	0.09	–0.09	–0.24
Input_man.		–0.06	0.2	0.15	0.27	0.08	–0.02	–0.09
EU-import		–0.08	0.23	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.03	–0.05
LS workers		0.13	–0.01	0	–0.13	–0.03	–0.02	–0.06
MS workers		0.16	–0.16	–0.12	–0.19	–0.12	0	–0.07
HS workers		0.12	–0.03	–0.11	–0.11	0	0.12	–0.15
Labour inten.		–0.02	0.16	–0.2	0.04	–0.17	-0.05	0.09
Demand shock		0	–0.08	–0.18	–0.04	0.17	–0.16	0.02
Output man.		–0.09	0.26	0.16	0.26	0.27	0.07	–0.19
EU-export		–0.38	0.49	–0.11	0.17	0.22	0.08	–0.18
Output price		0.03	–0.11	0.17	0.02	–0.1	0.02	–0.13
Oper. profit		–0.09	0.22	–0.17	0.02	0.02	–0.11	0.17
Age (log)		1	–0.4	0	–0.44	–0.24	–0.19	–0.02
Export share			1	0.17	0.3	0.07	0.11	0.22
Assets (log)				1	0.2	0.13	0.08	–0.21
Greenfield inzone					1	–0.13	–0.13	–0.15
Greenfield outzone						1	–0.13	–0.16
Brownfield							1	–0.15
Joint venture								1