Studying the cyclicality of the economy and prediction of new high risk of economic crises: a case study on the European countries from 1995 to 2018

Figures & data

Figure 1. Ward cluster dendrograms for several European countries: (a) Bulgaria; (b) Spain; (c) France; (d) Romania; (e) Sweden; (f) Portugal.

Source: Outputs obtained in R software.

Table 1. The synthesis of the main results using k-means algorithm for each country.

	Group name			Group structure
Country code	1	2	3	1	2	3
AUT	low	high	moderate	2004–2008, 2011	2009–2010, 2012–2018	1995–2003
BGR	low	moderate	high	2006–2018	1998–2005	1995–1997
BLR	high	moderate	low	1995–1996	2007–2018	1997–2006
CHE	high	low	moderate	1995–1999, 2001–2003	2000, 2010, 2004–2008	2009, 2011–2018
CZE	high	low	moderate	2001–2013	2014–2018	1995–2000
DEU	moderate	high	low	2006–2008, 2010–2012	1995–2005, 2009	2013–2018
DNK	low	high	moderate	1995–1999	2008–2015	2000–2007, 2016–2018
ESP	low	moderate	high	1995–1998	1999–2008	2009–2018
EST	low	high	moderate	2000–2005	1995–1999	2006–2018
FIN	moderate	high	low	2000, 2005–2008	2009–2018	1995–1999, 2001–2004
FRA	low	high	moderate	1995–1999	2009–2017	2000–2008, 2018
GBR	high	moderate	low	2008–2018	1999–2007	1995–1998
GRC	moderate	low	high	2000–2009	1995–1999	2010–2018
HUN	moderate	high	low	1999–2008	2009–2018	1995–1998
IRL	high	low	moderate	2008–2014	2015–2018	1995–2007
ISL	low	moderate	high	1995–2005	2006–2008, 2015–2018	2009–2014
ITA	moderate	low	high	1995–1999	2000–2008	2009–2018
LVA	high	moderate	low	1995–1999	2010–2018	2000–2009
NLD	moderate	high	low	2000–2010	2011–2018	1995–1999
NOR	high	low	moderate	2002–2004, 2009–2018	2000–2001, 2005–2008	1995–1999
POL	moderate	low	high	2000–2005	2006–2018	1995–1999
PRT	moderate	low	high	2013–2018	1995–2003	2004–2012
ROU	high	low	moderate	1995–2000	2001–2008	2009–2018
RUS	moderate	low	high	2007–2017	1999–2006, 2018	1995–1998
SVK	moderate	low	high	1995–2001	2002–2008, 2010–2012	2009, 2013–2018
SVN	low	moderate	high	2005–2008, 2017–2018	1995–2004	2009–2016
SWE	moderate	high	low	2005–2008	2009–2018	1995–2004
TUR	moderate	low	high	1995–2000	2001–2007	2008–2018
UKR	low	high	moderate	1999–2008	2009–2018	1995–1998

Source: Authors’ processing based on the output from R software.

Figure 2. Classes’ evolution for European countries.

Source: Authors’ processing based on the output from R software.

Figure 3. Recession risk in time: (a) 1998; (b) 2000; (c) 2008; (d) 2010; (e) 1995; (f) 2018.

Source: Outputs obtained in R software.