Regional aggregate indicators under subnational heterogeneity: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

Figures & data

Table 1. Test for equality of GDP’s mean average growth rates (p-values by pair of regions).

	AND	ARA	AST	BAL	CAN	CANT	CYL	CLM	CAT	CVAL	EXT	GAL	MAD	MUR	NAV	PVAS	LAR
AND		0.886	0.020	0.304	0.395	0.140	0.026	0.343	0.307	0.498	0.653	0.222	0.000	0.085	0.046	0.781	0.681
ARA	0.886		0.060	0.323	0.504	0.234	0.085	0.195	0.355	0.709	0.482	0.224	0.010	0.185	0.070	0.728	0.841
AST	0.020	0.060		0.013	0.138	0.463	0.669	0.013	0.003	0.080	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.004	0.000	0.003	0.037
BAL	0.304	0.323	0.013		0.073	0.005	0.011	0.938	0.608	0.122	0.579	0.890	0.052	0.547	0.776	0.200	0.285
CAN	0.395	0.504	0.138	0.073		0.451	0.227	0.211	0.074	0.751	0.164	0.070	0.000	0.045	0.007	0.206	0.760
CANT	0.140	0.234	0.463	0.005	0.451		0.702	0.100	0.012	0.334	0.068	0.008	0.000	0.024	0.002	0.010	0.356
CYL	0.026	0.085	0.669	0.011	0.227	0.702		0.026	0.002	0.240	0.009	0.002	0.000	0.011	0.000	0.007	0.132
CLM	0.343	0.195	0.013	0.938	0.211	0.100	0.026		0.628	0.232	0.456	0.783	0.273	0.724	0.929	0.494	0.165
CAT	0.307	0.355	0.003	0.608	0.074	0.012	0.002	0.628		0.090	0.770	0.508	0.006	0.186	0.306	0.451	0.226
CVAL	0.498	0.709	0.080	0.122	0.751	0.334	0.240	0.232	0.090		0.374	0.064	0.002	0.014	0.008	0.394	0.916
EXT	0.653	0.482	0.004	0.579	0.164	0.068	0.009	0.456	0.770	0.374		0.406	0.007	0.282	0.181	0.817	0.438
GAL	0.222	0.224	0.000	0.890	0.070	0.008	0.002	0.783	0.508	0.064	0.406		0.020	0.350	0.566	0.224	0.082
MAD	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.273	0.006	0.002	0.007	0.020		0.386	0.027	0.000	0.006
MUR	0.085	0.185	0.004	0.547	0.045	0.024	0.011	0.724	0.186	0.014	0.282	0.350	0.386		0.708	0.128	0.065
NAV	0.046	0.070	0.000	0.776	0.007	0.002	0.000	0.929	0.306	0.008	0.181	0.566	0.027	0.708		0.073	0.078
PVAS	0.781	0.728	0.003	0.200	0.206	0.010	0.007	0.494	0.451	0.394	0.817	0.224	0.000	0.128	0.073		0.490
LAR	0.681	0.841	0.037	0.285	0.760	0.356	0.132	0.165	0.226	0.916	0.438	0.082	0.006	0.065	0.078	0.490

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Figure 1. Correlation with regional GDP growth.

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Figure 2. Evolution of IPI & SSC during the lockdown.

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Table 2. Percentage of the variance explained by the common factor by region.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
		Percentage points increase
Region	Baseline	Total Labor Cost	Income	Overnight Stays	Layoffs	X	M	Petrol consumption	Services Sector Activity Index	Extended model
AND	63.96		1.77						1.61	67.34
ARA	71.01		0.12							71.13
AST	69.46		0.07				20.96		0.38	90.88
BAL	69.06		6.04	0.04					16.12	91.26
CAN	61.88		3.38	29.87			0.95			96.08
CANT	71.02		0.07	0.05			0.02			71.17
CYL	79.41		2.02							81.43
CLM	72.04		1.75						17.45	91.24
CAT	78.22				0.01					78.23
CVAL	57.79	6.04								63.82
EXT	56.68		1.58				0.25			58.52
GAL	77.26		0.18	0.03						77.47
MAD	75.64		1.60	0.01						77.25
MUR	56.82		0.70						0.26	57.78
NAV	74.78	0.48	0.37							75.63
PVAS	84.33	0.12				1.53				85.98
LAR	62.41					1.67				64.08
Average	69.52	2.21	1.51	6.00	0.01	1.60	5.55		7.17	76.43

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Figure 3. Estimated GDP by region.

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Table 3. Ratio of GDP Root Mean Squared Error (by subperiod & region) $\frac{\mathit{GDP}\mathit{RMS}{E}_i}{\mathit{GDP}\mathit{RMS}{E}_{\mathit{all}}}$.

i denotes the corresponding row subperiod while all includes all the indicated subperiods. Subperiod dating is done acording to expansions/recessions dated by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee.

	AND	ARA	AST	BAL	CAN	CANT	CYL	CLM	CAT	CVAL	EXT	GAL	MAD	MUR	NAV	PVAS	LAR
2004Q3-2008Q1	0.621	0.556	0.882	0.941	0.928	0.490	0.468	0.761	1.032	0.808	0.232	0.329	0.999	0.837	0.579	0.459	0.944
2008Q2-2009Q4	1.127	2.199	1.330	1.609	1.459	2.167	2.197	2.171	1.681	2.236	2.488	2.339	1.587	1.853	2.621	2.229	1.917
2010Q1-2010Q3	1.851	0.962	1.581	1.336	0.929	0.794	0.886	0.775	1.013	0.956	1.017	0.514	1.004	1.237	0.608	0.791	1.376
2010Q4-2013Q2	1.146	1.248	0.933	0.564	1.215	0.609	0.462	0.329	0.685	0.804	0.605	0.637	0.514	0.447	0.742	0.695	0.271
2013Q3-2019Q3	0.989	0.470	0.941	0.971	0.833	0.928	0.942	0.879	0.888	0.611	0.690	0.861	1.005	0.950	0.372	0.827	0.858
2019Q4-2020Q2	0.202	0.145	0.496	0.232	0.041	0.037	0.038	0.035	0.294	0.139	0.528	0.313	0.256	0.192	0.301	0.766	0.090

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Figure 3. Estimated GDP by region - panel B.

Figure 4. Estimated GDP by region.

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.

Figure 5. Percentage of the variance explained by different number of eigenvalues.

Source: authors own calculations and estimations.