How economic growth pressure impact carbon emissions: Evidence for China

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics (observations: 3601).

Variable	Mean	Median	Max.	Min.	Std. Dev.
Carbon emissions per capita (ton)	6.865	5.725	55.218	0.471	5.629
Total carbon emissions (million tons)	26.679	19.984	230.712	1.723	23.706
Economic growth pressure	−0.004	−0.005	0.231	−0.127	0.024
Alternative economic growth pressure	−0.005	−0.005	0.207	−0.167	0.027
Population (10,000 persons)	441	362	3075	18	326
Numbers of green patent granted	200	32	13360	0	674
GDP per capita (¥)	30202	23546	198005	2730	22296
The share of the secondary industry	0.4859	0.4880	0.9097	0.0900	0.1101
The share of the tertiary industry	0.3753	0.3649	0.8060	0.0342	0.0912
Industrial structure upgrading	0.857	0.768	4.360	0.075	0.454
Numbers of patent granted	3020	511	106767	0	8228
Trade openness (¥)	9435	1793	276794	1	23944

Source: Authors own calculations.

Table 2. The effects of economic growth pressure on carbon emissions.

Variables	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions per capita
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Pressure	3.764***	3.798***	5.162***	5.139***	4.798***	4.818***
	(1.146)	(1.146)	(1.192)	(1.192)	(1.192)	(1.192)
lnpopulation		−0.935**	−0.343	−0.288	−0.518	−0.591
		(0.433)	(0.456)	(0.461)	(0.463)	(0.466)
lnGDP_per_capita			0.808***	0.825***	1.320***	1.305***
			(0.200)	(0.201)	(0.230)0	(0.230)
Lngreen_patent				−0.047	−0.048	−0.044
				(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)
Secondary					−2.800***	−3.649***
					(0.642)	(0.888)
Tertiary						−1.537
						(1.111)
Constant	6.881***	12.369***	0.759	0.427	−1.845	−0.293
	(0.023)	(2.543)	(3.834)	(3.854)	(3.880)	(4.038)
City fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3601	3601	3601	3601	3601	3601
R-squared	0.942	0.942	0.943	0.943	0.943	0.943

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Source: Authors own calculations.

Table 3. Robustness check: Alternative economic growth pressure.

Variables	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions per capita
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Alternative pressure	3.831***	3.889***	5.040***	5.026***	4.692***	4.714***
	(1.055)	(1.055)	(1.090)	(1.090)	(1.090)	(1.090)
lnpopulation		−0.955**	−0.372	−0.315	−0.541	−0.615
		(0.433)	(0.456)	(0.460)	(0.462)	(0.465)
lnGDP_per_capita			0.802***	0.821***	1.310***	1.296***
			(0.198)	(0.199)	(0.229)	(0.229)
Lngreen_patent				−0.049	−0.049	−0.046
				(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)
Secondary					−2.774***	−3.630***
					(0.642)	(0.888)
Tertiary						−1.551
						(1.111)
Constant	6.886***	12.491***	0.986	0.638	−1.623	−0.056
	(0.024)	(2.543)	(3.814)	(3.835)	(3.861)	(4.020)
City fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3601	3601	3601	3601	3601	3601
R-squared	0.942	0.943	0.943	0.943	0.943	0.944

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Source: Authors own calculations.

Table 4. Robustness check: New explained variable and samples.

Variables	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions per capita
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pressure	4.439***	3.687***	4.834***
	(1.393)	(1.173)	(1.268)
lnpopulation	20.666***	−0.664	−0.256
	(1.326)	(0.462)	(0.499)
lnGDP_per_capita	4.317***	0.317***	1.837***
	(0.657)	(0.080)	(0.256)
Lngreen_patent	0.603***	−0.022	−0.097*
	(0.159)	(0.047)	(0.057)
Secondary	−7.874***	−2.398***	−6.838***
	(2.529)	(0.848)	(1.279)
Tertiary	7.573**	−1.466	−4.362***
	(3.165)	(1.117)	(1.376)
Constant	−139.219***	9.355***	−4.840
	(11.497)	(3.080)	(4.302)
City fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3601	3549	3324
R-squared	0.974	0.943	0.944

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Source: Authors own calculations.

Table 5. Robustness check: New estimation methods.

Variables	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions per capita
	(1)	(2)
Pressure	20.147***	2.539***
	(1.524)	(0.133)
lnpopulation	−0.800***	5.487***
	(0.084)	(0.217)
lnGDP_per_capita	2.190***	1.040***
	(0.113)	(0.026)
Lngreen_patent	−0.069	−0.032***
	(0.049)	(0.011)
Secondary	6.033***	−4.862***
	(0.602)	(0.223)
Tertiary	3.380***	−9.941***
	(0.722)	(0.233)
Constant	−15.370***
	(1.260)
Obs.	3601	3046
R-squared	0.302
AR(1) p-value		0.000
AR(2) p-value		0.666
Hansen test		1.000

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Source: Authors own calculations.

Table 6. Robustness check: Instrumental variable test.

Variable	Carbon emissions per capita (second-stage)	Pressure (first-stage)	Carbon emissions per capita (second-stage)	Pressure (first-stage)
Pressure	36.574***		21.243***
	(4.117)		(2.911)
IV: provincial pressure		0.588***
		(0.031)
IV: other cities’s pressure				0.688***
				(0.026)
lnpopulation	−0.183	−0.015**	−0.407	−0.011*
	(0.518)	(0.006)	(0.479)	(0.006)
lnGDP_per_capita	0.472***	−0.003**	0.401***	−0.002**
	(0.091)	(0.001)	(0.084)	(0.001)
Lngreen_patent	0.012	−0.001	−0.004	0.001
	(0.052)	(0.001)	(0.049)	(0.001)
Secondary	0.183	−0.072***	−1.020	−0.067***
	(0.993)	(0.012)	(0.901)	(0.011)
Tertiary	−2.103*	−0.002	−1.806	0.003
	(1.247)	(0.016)	(1.156)	(0.015)
Constant	3.972	0.164***	6.481**	0.117***
	(3.490)	(0.043)	(3.213)	(0.041)
City fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3549	3549	3549	3549
R-squared	0.930	0.396	0.939	0.445

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Table 7. Mediating effects on the nexus of economic growth pressure and carbon emissions.

Variable	Explained variable
	Carbon emissions per capita			Industrial structure upgrading			lnpatent			lntrade
	Coefficient	Confidence intervals		Coefficient	Confidence intervals		Coefficient	Confidence intervals		Coefficient	Confidence intervals
Constant	−1.056	−8.890	6.776	−0.936***	−1.584	−0.288	−0.059	−1.779	1.660	1.458	−1.044	3.961
Pressure	4.432***	2.219	6.645	−0.102***	−0.144	−0.060	−0.871**	−1.378	−0.363	−0.488***	−0.750	−0.226
Industrial structure upgrading	−0.412	−1.685	0.862
Lnpatent	−0.305***	−0.461	−0.150
lntrade	−0.306***	−0.413	−0.199
lnGDP_per_capita	1.852***	1.389	2.315	0.149***	0.112	0.186	0.415***	0.317	0.513	0.747***	0.604	0.890
Lngreen_patent	0.119	−0.010	0.250	−0.009**	−0.018	−0.000	0.461***	0.437	0.485	0.114***	0.080	0.149
lnpopulation	−0.569	−1.476	0.337	0.151***	0.076	0.225	−0.001	−0.199	0.197	−0.556***	−0.845	−0.267
Secondary	−6.070***	−8.092	−4.048	−2.526***	−2.669	−2.384	0.624***	0.245	1.002	1.981***	1.430	2.531
Tertiary	1.237	−1.040	3.514	1.753***	1.575	1.931	0.711***	0.237	1.184	1.054***	0.365	1.743
Time fixed effects	Yes			Yes			Yes			Yes
Region fixed effects	Yes			Yes			Yes			Yes
Observations	3601			3601			3601			3601
R-squared	0.945			0.941			0.974			0.951
Indirect effect of economic growth pressure on carbon emissions per capita	Effect	Boot SE	BootLLCI	BootULCI
Total	0.457	0.131	0.185	0.729
Industrial structure upgrading	0.042	0.053	−0.108	0.192
Lnpatent	0.266	0.112	0.126	0.406
lntrade	0.149	0.046	0.068	0.231

*, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.

Table 8. Regional heterogeneity of economic growth pressure’s effects on carbon emissions.

Variables	Dependent variable: Carbon emissions per capita
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pressure	−2.423**	0.739	1.678**	12.537***
	(1.237)	(0.938)	(0.763)	(3.287)
lnpopulation	−4.067***	−7.467***	−3.269***	11.472***
	(0.370)	(1.246)	(0.216)	(1.418)
lnGDP_per_capita	0.924***	0.450	1.348***	0.523
	(0.171)	(0.300)	(0.165)	(0.621)
Lngreen_patent	0.070	−0.077	0.088***	−0.004
	(0.045)	(0.085)	(0.031)	(0.152)
Secondary	−2.430***	−2.785***	−2.723***	−4.233
	(0.746)	(0.976)	(0.434)	(2.796)
Tertiary	−0.472	3.922***	1.372**	0.845
	(0.730)	(1.255)	(0.695)	(3.728)
Constant	22.904***	45.226***	12.131***	−59.369***
	(3.312)	(7.862)	(2.505)	(11.667)
City fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	1118	416	1027	1040
R-squared	0.969	0.966	0.982	0.949

Robust Std. Errors are in brackets. *, **, and *** respectively denote the significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%.