Impact of rural capital outflow on sustainable economic growth: evidence from Shaanxi Province of China

Figures & data

Table 1. Variable definitions and descriptive statistics.

Variables	Number of observations	Average value	Standard deviation	Minimum value	Maximum value
$\mathit{gdp}$	1377	0.616	0.545	0.242	5.136
$\mathit{outc}$	1377	0.833	0.574	0.1476	8.982
$\mathit{fina}$	1377	0.475	0.222	0.006	0.996
$\mathit{agr}$	1377	0.25	0.129	0.011	0.664
$\mathit{sgov}$	1377	0.216	0.137	0.312	0.963
$\mathit{slab}$	1377	0.005	0.013	−0.891	0.119
$\hspace{0.17em}\sin \hspace{0.17em}v$	1377	25.9	15.56	1.9	68.02
$\mathit{sedu}$	1377	0.16	0.045	0.053	0.29

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 2. Data sample range.

Northern Shaanxi	Yan’an City	Yanchuan, Zichang, Ansai, Zhidan, Ganquan, Fuxian, Luochuan, Huanglong, Huangling, Yichuan and Yanchang
	Yulin City	Shenmu, Fugu, Hengshan, Jingbian, Dingbian, Suide, Mizhi, Jiaxian, Wubao, Qingjian and Zizhou
Guanzhong	Xi’an	Lantian County, Zhouzhi County, Huxian County and Gaoling County
	Xianyangng City	Sanyuan, Jingyang, Gan, Liquan, Yongshou, Bin, Changwu, Xunyi, Chunhua, Wugong and Xingping
	Weinan City	Huaxian, Tongguan, Dali, Heyang, Chengcheng, Pucheng, Baishui, Fuping and Hancheng
	Baoji City	Fengxiang, Qishan, Fufeng, Meixian, Longxian, Qianyang, Linyou, Fengxian and Taibai
	Tongchuan City	Yijun County
Southern Shaanxi	Ankang City	Hanyin, Shiquan, Ningshan, Ziyang, Langao, Pingli, Zhenping, Xunyang and Baihe
	Shangluo City	Luonan County, Danfeng County, Shangnan County, Shanyang County, Zhenan County and Zhashui County
	Hanzhong City	Nanzheng, Chenggu, Yangxian, Xixiang, Mianxian, Ningqiang, Lueyang, Zhenba, Liuba and Foping counties

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 1. Scale of financial capital loss in sample counties of Shaanxi Province.

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 2. Scale of capital loss in three regions of Shaanxi Province.

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 3. GDP per capita and capital outflow.

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 4. GDP per capita and the proportion of loans to GDP.

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 5. Per capita GDP and the proportion of primary industry.

Source: authors’ own production.

Figure 6. Per capita GDP and the proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP.

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 3. Panel unit root test results.

Variables	Statistics	P value	Conclusion
GDP per capita	0.60	0.00	Smooth
Capital outflow	0.44	0.00	Smooth
Ratio of loans to GDP	0.53	0.00	Smooth
Proportion of primary industry	0.50	0.00	Smooth
Proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP	0.69	0.01	Smooth
Natural population growth rate	0.46	0.00	Smooth
Investment in fixed assets	0.26	0.00	Smooth
Level of education	0.31	0.00	Smooth

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 4. Cointegration test results.

Statistics	Z value	P value	Conclusion
GT	0.92	0.002	Overall cointegration
GA	0.44	0.002	Overall cointegration
PT	0.53	0.001	At least one cointegration
PA	0.50	0.000	At least one cointegration

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 5. Baseline regression results.

	Rural economic growth
Explained variable Explanatory variable	Model one	Model II	Model three	Model IV
	Mixed regression	Fixed effect	Mixed regression	Fixed effect
Capital outflow	0.00423***	0.599***	0.0099***	0.0371***
	(0.0103)	(0.0082)	(0.0109)	(0.0118)
Proportion of primary industry	−0.8047***	−0.672**	−0.5670***	−0.2001**
	(0.4758)	(0.06795)	(0.04075)	(1.9541)
Ratio of loans to GDP	−2.0125***	−1.3614***	−1.8489***	−1.1813***
	(010442)	(0.1808)	(0.7485)	(0.8132)
Proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP			0.1246***	0.0267***
			(0.0124)	(0.0122)
Population growth rate			−2.6776***	1.4883***
			(15.4360)	(15.4300)
Investment in fixed assets			2.58826***	1.6328**
			(1.6068)	(1.8526)
Level of education			4.0249**	5.5204*
			(5.9788)	(6.4982)
Intercept	3.1794***	3.1277***	3.0453**	3.6658***
	(0.5530)	(0.6121)	(1.2389)	(1.3256)
Number of observations		1,377		1,377
Intragroup R ^ 2		0.39		0.55
Intergroup R ^ 2	1,377	0.45	1,377	0.63
R ^ 2	0.34	0.39	0.46	0.43

Note: ***, **, and * indicate that the null hypothesis is rejected at the significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. The value in parentheses below the coefficient is the t-statistic.

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 6. Model stability test.

	Rural economic growth
Explained variable Explanatory variable	Model (1)	Model (2)	Model (3)	Model (4)
	Mixed regression	Fixed effect	Mixed regression	Fixed effect
Capital outflow	0.2263***	0.7054***	0.6340**	0.8578**
	(3.7206)	(4.5957)	(2.3225)	(2.4725)
Ratio of loans to GDP	−3.2231***	−2.9231***	−1.3575***	1.3357
	(2.8137)	(3.1573)	(1.8387)	(1.9665)
Proportion of primary industry	−1.4833***	−1.9767***	−2.1675***	−2.6993***
	(3.5714)	(1.5041)	(3.3236)	(4.2144)
Proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP			2.1780***	3.9228***
			(3.9686)	(2.0926)
Natural population growth rate			−1.9014***	−1.6110***
			(3.5143)	(2.0558)
Investment in fixed assets			0.0029***	0.0022***
			(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Level of education			2.2519***	3.9722***
			(1.7023)	(1.9775)
Intercept	8.7862***	9.1842***	7.8168***	9.2742***
	(2.6816)	(2.1477)	(2.8974)	(2.4393)
Number of observations Intragroup R ^ 2 Intergroup R ^ 2	1,377	1,377 0.2244 0.4790	1,377	1,377 0.3251 0.5222
R ^ 2	0.383	0.474	0.792	0.876

Note: ***, **, and * indicate that the null hypothesis is rejected at the significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. The value in parentheses below the coefficient is the t-statistic.

Source: authors’ own production.

Table 7. Empirical results of dynamic panel.

	Rural economic growth
Explained variable Explanatory variable	Differential GMM	Differential GMM	System GMM	System GMM
	GDP per capita	GDP per capita	GDP per capita	GDP per capita
GDP per capita with a lag period	0.333***	0.329***	0.464***	0.442***
Capital outflow	(0.028) 0.224*** (3.122)	(0.042) 0.742*** (4.122)	(0.044) 0.642*** (2.221)	(0.054) 0.763*** (2.610)
Ratio of loans to GDP	−3.416***	−2.412***	−1.330***	−1.358***
	(2.159)	(3.082)	(1.143)	(2.093)
Proportion of primary industry	−1.018	−1.687***	−2.171*	−2.734***
	(5.107)	(1.208)	(1.089)	3.210)
Proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP			0.044**	0.071*
			(0.066)	(0.065)
Natural population growth rate			−1.0831***	−1.091***
			(1.322)	(1.443)
Fixed investment			0.153***	0.182***
			(0.043)	(0.043)
Level of education			1.0515***	1.0515***
			(0.04)	(0.004)
Intercept	1.419***	1.427***	1.346***	1.354***
	(0.056)	(0.067)	(0.051)	(0.071)
Number of observations	1377	1377	1377	1377
P value of AR (1) test	0.0004	0.0005	0.0003	0.0005
P value of AR (2) test	0.0845	0.1221	0.1478	0.1221
P value of Sargan test	0.9922	0.9951	1	1

Note: ***, ** and * indicate that the null hypothesis is rejected at the significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. The value in parentheses below the coefficient is the t-statistic.

Source: authors’ own production.