A research on the policies to realise carbon intensity targets in China

Figures & data

Table 1. Calculation results of carbon emission coefficients of three energies.

Energies	Average Qnet	Carbon content per unit calorific value ($\mathrm{kgC}/\mathrm{GJ}$)	Carbon oxidation rate %	Standard coal coefficient	Carbon emission coefficients ($\mathrm{kg}{\mathrm{CO}}_2/\mathrm{kgce}$)
Coal	20908	26.37	0.94	0.714	2.660
Crude oil	41816	20.1	0.98	1.429	2.114
Natural gas	38931	15.3	0.99	1.330	1.626

Source: Authors.

Table 2. China’s carbon dioxide emissions; unit: billion tons of CO₂.

Year	CO2 (energy)	CO2 (cement)	Total CO2
2005	61.17	6.80	67.97
2006	67.01	7.45	74.45
2007	72.76	8.08	80.84
2008	74.05	8.23	82.28
2009	77.57	8.62	86.18
2010	81.98	9.11	91.09
2011	88.90	9.88	98.77
2012	90.84	10.09	100.94
2013	93.39	10.38	103.77
2014	93.96	10.44	104.40
2015	93.71	10.41	104.13
2016	93.64	10.40	104.04
2017	96.78	10.75	107.54
2018	98.73	10.97	109.70
2019	100.72	11.19	111.91
2020	101.92	11.32	113.24
2021	106.11	11.79	117.9

Source: Authors.

Table 3. China’s carbon intensity from 2005 to 2021; unit: ton/10,000 yuan.

Year	Carbon intensity	Year	Carbon intensity
2005	4.25	2014	2.79
2006	4.13	2015	2.60
2007	3.93	2016	2.43
2008	3.65	2017	2.35
2009	3.49	2018	2.25
2010	3.34	2019	2.17
2011	3.30	2020	2.14
2012	3.13	2021	2.07
2013	2.98

Source: Authors.

Table 4. Energy intensities in 2025 and 2030; unit: 10,000 tons of standard coal/10,000 yuan.

Year	Scenario 1: the growth rate of GDP is 5%	Scenario 2: the growth rate of GDP is 6%	Scenario 3: the growth rate of GDP is 7%
2025	0.8292	0.8299	0.8306
2030	0.7534	0.7540	0.7545

Source: Authors.

Table 5. The decrease of energy intensity under different growth rates of energy tax.

Increase of energy tax rate	Energy tax rate	Decrease of energy tax rate
12percentage points	18%	(6.85%, 11.32%)
13percentage points	19%	(7.42%, 12.26%)
15percentage points	21%	(8.56%, 14.15%)
20percentage points	26%	(11.42%, 18.87%)
23percentage points	29%	(13.13%, 21.7%)
25percentage points	31%	(14.27%, 23.5%)
30percentage points	36%	(17.12%, 28.3%)
35percentage points	41%	(19.78%, 33.01%)

Source: Authors.

Table 6. Energy tax plans to achieve carbon intensity targets in 2025 and 2030.

Plans	Energy tax rate in 2025	Energy tax	Energy tax rate in 2030	Energy tax
Conservative plan	21.0percentage points	27.02%	35.04percentage points	41.04%
Probability plan 1	21.02percentage points	27.02%	21.2–35.04percentage points	(27.2%, 41.04%)
Probability plan 2	12.72–21.02percentage points	(18.72%, 27.02%)	35.04percentage points	41.04%
Probability plan 3	12.72–21.02percentage points	(18.72%, 27.02%)	21.2–35.04percentage points	(27.2%, 41.04%)

Source: Authors.

Table 7. Proposed policy mixes to achieve carbon intensity targets.

Plan	Year 2025		Year 2030
	Energy tax rate	R&D subsidy rate	Energy tax rate	R&D subsidy rate
Policy mix 1	19%	29.1%	28%	34.92%
Policy mix 2	21%	26.78%	31%	31.44%
Policy mix 3	23%	24.47%	33%	29.12%

Source: Authors.