Over- and under-reaction to transboundary threats: two sides of a misprinted coin?

Figures & data

Table 1 Typology of over and under-reaction with cases

		Under reaction	Over reaction
		Timeliness
Type of mistake		Too late	Too early
Threat assessment	Probability	Under-estimated probability 9/11 attacks Ukraine 2014	Over-estimated probability Iceland Ash Clouds 2010
	Severity	Under-estimated severity Financial crisis 2008 9/11 attacks	Over-estimated severity Swine flu 2009
Response proportionality	Scope	Under-scoped response Financial crisis 2008	Over-scoped response Iraq WMD 2003 Iceland ash clouds 2010
	Scale	Under-scaled response Ukraine 2014	Over-scaled response Iraq WMD 2003 Swine flu 2009

Source: The author.

Table 2 Overview of pilots case findings

Factor Case	H1: Misapplication of lessons learnt	H2: Obstacles from institutional silos	H3: Biases from salient preferences
9/11	+	+	+
Iraq 2003	+	–	!
Financial Crisis 2008	+	+	!
Swine Flu 2009	!	+	+
Ash Cloud 2010	+	!	–
Ukraine 2013/14	+	!	+

Note: – = insignificant; + = significantly affects scope and scale of failure; ! = necessary factor for overall failure.