The power of expertise: gauging technocracy in EMU reform negotiations

Figures & data

Figure 1. EC and ECB positions, and outcomes of 39 negotiated issues.

Table 1. Ordinary least squares regression results.

	Success
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
COM coalition	39.47***	26.69***	41.03***	51.45***	39.35***	96.20***	30.06***
	(3.18)	(4.03)	(3.20)	(3.58)	(3.19)	(8.64)	(3.16)
ECB coalition	−16.57***	−17.17***	−12.39***	−18.96***	−11.72***	−21.94***	43.97***
	(3.13)	(3.07)	(3.37)	(3.07)	(3.70)	(3.06)	(8.70)
Centrality	0.38***	0.51***	0.39***	0.47***	0.36***	0.41***	0.63***
	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)
GDP	−0.003	−0.002	−0.002	−0.003	−0.002	−0.003	−0.001
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Network Capital	3.31	3.27	2.78	3.58	3.20	3.80	1.65
	(3.21)	(3.13)	(3.20)	(3.10)	(3.20)	(2.99)	(3.00)
Council Presidency	−0.90	−3.13	−1.71	−1.84	−0.93	1.56	1.15
	(6.82)	(6.68)	(6.79)	(6.58)	(6.80)	(6.36)	(6.35)
Issue Importance	−0.04	−0.40	−0.34	0.15	−0.04
	(0.67)	(0.70)	(0.64)	(0.66)	(0.66)
EuroArea	0.69	−0.41	0.06	1.01	0.23	1.39	−0.41
	(3.70)	(3.62)	(3.69)	(3.57)	(3.70)	(3.45)	(3.45)
Aid Progr	5.67	5.06	4.94	4.36	5.65	4.28	6.04
	(4.75)	(4.64)	(4.72)	(4.58)	(4.73)	(4.41)	(4.42)
Budget Deficit	−0.01	−0.001	−0.08	−0.11	−0.02	0.05	−0.13
	(0.40)	(0.39)	(0.39)	(0.38)	(0.40)	(0.37)	(0.37)
Spread	−0.45	−0.35	−0.25	−0.61	−0.42	−0.36	−0.37
	(0.50)	(0.49)	(0.50)	(0.48)	(0.50)	(0.46)	(0.46)
COM coalition * OLP		28.69***
		(5.71)
ECBcoalition* Eurogroup_decision			−20.97***
			(6.59)
complexity				23.79***	13.99*
				(7.32)	(7.31)
COMcoalition * complexity				−39.35***
				(6.12)
ECBcoalition * complexity					−15.08**
					(6.66)
Salience (3rd category)						44.84***	45.99***
						(10.66)	(11.02)
Salience (4th category)						27.64**	28.43**
						(10.76)	(11.09)
COMcoalition * Salience 3rd category						−82.05***
						(9.50)
COMcoalition * Salience 4th category						−45.82***
						(9.64)
ECBcoalition * Salience 3rd category							−88.22***
							(9.85)
ECBcoalition * Salience 4th category							−49.73***
							(9.48)
Constant	17.74	19.85	23.42	0.26	14.24	−14.84	−24.08**
	(15.89)	(16.25)	(15.32)	(15.91)	(15.85)	(11.71)	(11.97)
Observations	575	575	575	575	575	575	575
Log Likelihood	−2,772.36	−2,757.42	−2,764.60	−2,746.09	−2,763.37	−2,718.25	−2,718.87
Akaike Inf. Crit.	5,572.72	5,544.84	5,559.20	5,524.18	5,558.74	5,470.51	5,471.75
Bayesian Inf. Crit.	5,633.69	5,610.15	5,624.52	5,593.85	5,628.41	5,544.53	5,545.77

Note: *p<0.1 **p<0.05 ***p<0.01