Dynamic prediction of Chinese development based on the ecological footprint method

Abstract

Ecological footprint (EF), as a physical indicator to measure the extent of humanity's use of natural resources, is one of the most successful methods used to assess sustainable development. This paper calculated the per capita EF and biocapacity (BC) of China from 1949 to 2008 and the fluctuant cycles of per capita EF and BC, which were decomposed and assessed based on empirical mode decomposition and nonlinear dynamic prediction models. We propose prediction scenarios and the results show that: (1) over the last 60 years, the per capita EF increasingly fluctuated while the per capita BC constantly reduced, and since 1985, China has had an aggregate ecological deficit (ED); (2) the business-as-usual scenario looked at the consequences if average annual change rates of per capita EF and BC are constant, where the per capita ED would be 3.9024 gha in 2030, a very grim situation for China; and (3) if the productivity of natural ecosystems increases by 10%, consumption of natural ecosystems and emission of CO₂ and contamination could be reduced by 10% and per capita ED would be 1.5217 gha in 2030, then the potential for sustainable development will be much better than the business-as-usual scenario. Finally, some policy recommendations are presented, such as increased land productivity to meet growing demand, reducing over-consumption of resources to mitigate ecological overload, promoting resource-saving consumption and paying attention to international trade.

Keywords:

• ecological footprint
• biocapacity
• dynamic model
• scenario analysis
• China

Acknowledgements

This work was fund by the National Significant Environment Problem Study Programme of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China (2008ZX002). The authors wish to thank the anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. We also thank Mr. Li Jun form the China Daily for help in proofreading.

Notes

1. National Bureau of Statistics of China. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20090226_402540710.htm.

2. FAO. http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx.

3. IGSNRR. http://www.naturalresources.csdb.cn/index.asp.