Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices

Abstract

An estimation of complex unit roots is presented based on the standardized periodogram of the Jordanian and Israeli Industrial Production indices over the period 1982–2003. Both indices are found to have six complex cyclical unit roots contents. In contrast, the propagation mechanism rather than impulse tends to drive the business cycles in those economies. Propagation consists of those forces which carry the influences of the shock forward over time and cause deviation from the steady state to be persistent. The periodogram-based cycle duration analysis reveals that both Kitchin and Juglar cycles exist in the Israeli economy. However, no investment cycles are found in the Jordanian economy.

Notes

The Keynesian approach is that the economy evolves along a path imitating a trend rate of growth explained by Solow's (1959) neoclassical model of a long-run trend component of GNP, with short-run fluctuations given by demand shocks.