COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?

Figures & data

Table 1. Diff-in-diff regression of separation rate

	Inflow rate	Robustness (altered loss in value added)
		+20 ppt	−20 ppt
Treatment	−0.0015	−0.0013	−0.0016
	(−19.43)	(−20.70)	(−17.94)
Time	0.0007	0.0006	0.0009
	(3.94)	(3.20)	(4.99)
Time $\times$ Treatment	−0.0075	−0.0070	−0.0078
	(−4.78)	(−5.26)	(−4.12)

Note: T-values in parentheses. Robust (Huber/White) standard errors. Regression weighted by number of employees.

Source: Statistics of the Federal Employment Agency; Establishment History Panel 2018, own calculations.

Table 2. Average number of days of economic closures and curfews

Federal State	Closure of economic sectors	Curfews
Baden Wuerttemberg	27	22
Bavaria	27	22
Berlin	28	21
Brandenburg	25	21
Bremen	26	20
Hamburg	28	21
Hesse	26	21
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania	26	21
Lower Saxony	28	20
North Rhine-Westphalia	27	21
Rhineland-Palatinate	26	20
Saarland	26	22
Saxony	25	21
Saxony-Anhalt	26	21
Schleswig-Holstein	29	21
Thuringia	26	19

Note: Table 2 shows the average of the days measured up to the cut-off date (14 April 2020) across the agency districts in one federal state. It was rounded to full days.

Source: Own calculations.

Table 3. Regression of labour market flows on closing days

Dependent variable	Economic closures	Curfews
Separation rate	0.0222	0.0219
	(8.61)	(7.93)
Job-finding rate	−0.1913	−0.3517
	(−11.52)	(−12.84)

Note: T-values in parenthesis. Robust (Huber/White) standard errors. Regression weighted by the regional employment share.

Source: Statistics of the Federal Employment Agency, own calculations.

Figure 1. visual inspection of common-trends assumption

Table A1. Inflows to unemployment from employment subject to social security contributions

Code	‘Classification of Products by Activity’	Loss of value added	Degree of closure
01	Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities	−0.0064	0.0000
02	Forestry and logging	−0.0030	0.0000
03	Fishing and aquaculture	−0.1151	0.0000
05	Mining of coal and lignite	0.0000	0.0000
06	Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas	−0.0070	0.0000
07–09	Mining and quarrying and mining support service	−0.0005	0.0000
10–12	Manufacture of food products. beverages. tobacco	−0.0425	0.0000
13–15	Manufacture of textiles and wearing apparel	−0.0227	0.0000
16	Manufacture of leather, wood and cork	−0.0357	0.0000
17	Manufacture of paper and paper products	−0.0303	0.0000
18	Printing and reproduction of recorded media	−0.0995	0.0000
19	Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products	−0.0507	0.0000
20	Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products	−0.0109	0.0000
21	Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations	0.0000	0.0000
22	Manufacture of rubber and plastic products	−0.1371	0.0000
23	Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products	-0.0388	0.0000
24	Manufacture of basic metals	−0.1872	0.0000
25	Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	−0.1089	0.0000
26	Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	−0.0067	0.0000
27	Manufacture of electrical equipment	−0.0353	0.0000
28	Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.	−0.0171	0.0000
29	Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	−1.0000	1.0000
30	Manufacture of other transport equipment	−0.0058	0.0000
31–32	Manufacture of furniture and Other manufacturing	−0.0008	0.0000
33	Repair and installation of machinery and equipment	−0.1089	0.0000
35	Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	−0.0609	0.0000
36	Water collection, treatment and supply	−0.0698	0.0000
37–39	Sewerage, Waste collection, disposal and remediation activities	−0.0524	0.0000
41	Construction of buildings	−0.0021	0.0000
42	Civil engineering	−0.0118	0.0000
43	Specialized construction activities	−0.0314	0.0000
45	Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	−0.7545	0.5000
46	Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	−0.4581	0.4050
47	Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	−0.4453	0.4050
49	Land transport and transport via pipelines	−0.5316	0.3280
50	Water transport	−0.0231	0.0000
51	Air transport	−0.9222	0.7500
52	Warehousing and support activities for transportation	−0.6988	0.5000
53	Postal and courier activities	−0.2115	0.0000
55–56	Accommodation and Food and beverage service activities	−0.8231	0.8000
58	Publishing activities	−0.0503	0.0000
59–60	Motion picture, video and television programme production and Programming and broadcasting activities	−0.0249	1.0000
61	Telecommunications	−0.0643	0.0000
62–63	Computer programming, consultancy and related activities and Information service activities	−0.0528	0.0000
64	Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding	−0.0493	0.0000
65	Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security	−0.0471	0.0000
66	Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities	0.0000	0.0000
68	Real estate activities	−0.0580	0.0000
69–70	Legal and accounting activities and Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	−0.0711	0.0000
71	Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	−0.0457	0.0000
72	Scientific research and development	0.0000	0.0000
73	Advertising and market research	−0.1372	0.0000
74–75	Other professional, scientific and technical activities and Veterinary activities	−0.0790	0.0000
77	Rental and leasing activities	−0.0913	0.0000
78	Employment activities	−0.1606	0.0000
79	Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities	−1.0000	1.0000
80–82	Security and investigation, Services to buildings and landscape, office support and other business support activities	−0.7670	0.1600
84	Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	−0.0114	0.0000
85	Education	−0.1399	0.1300
86	Human health activities	−0.0012	0.0000
87–88	Residential care activities and Social work activities without accommodation	0.0000	0.0000
90–92	Entertainment activities, Libraries, archives, museums and Gambling	−0.7180	0.7000
93	Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	−1.0000	1.0000
94	Activities of membership organizations	−0.0335	0.0000
95	Repair of computers and personal and household goods	−0.0861	0.0000
96	Other personal service activities	−0.5967	0.5800
97–98	Activities of households, goods- and services-producing activities of private households for own use	0.0000	0.0000

Source: Federal Statistical Office. Own calculations.