Information and price efficiency in the absence of home crowd advantage

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of matches per league for analysis

League	Behind closed doors from	Games	Comparison
Germany Bundesliga 1	11 March 2020	130	130
Italy Serie A	8 March 2020	220	220
England Premier League	17 June 2020	190	190
Spain La Liga Primera	10 March 2020	214	214
Total Games		754	754

Table 2. R-squared bootstrap for Asian handicap markets

	N	Mean	St. Dev	Min	Max
Before	1000	0.202	0.027	0.118	0.280
After	1000	0.248	0.029	0.162	0.340
Difference		0.046	0.002	0.044	0.061

Table 3. Difference between observed means in the two samples

Difference	0.046
Standard error	0.001
95% CI	[0.0439, 0.0487]
t-statistic	37.387
DF	1998
Significance level	$P<0.0001$

Figure 1. Density plot of R-squared for Asian handicap markets

Table 4. McFadden R-squared bootstrap for home, away and draw odds

		Home			Away			Draw
	Before	After	Difference	Before	After	Difference	Before	After	Difference
N	1000	1000		1000	1000		1000	1000
Mean	0.096	0.152	0.056	0.117	0.119	0.002	0.014	0.021	0.007
St. Dev	0.018	0.023	0.005	0.022	0.020	−0.002	0.008	0.009	0.002
Min	0.043	0.083	0.040	0.059	0.050	−0.009	0.000	0.000	0.000
Max	0.171	0.228	0.057	0.201	0.184	−0.017	0.046	0.062	0.017

Table 5. Difference between observed means in the two samples

	Home	Away	Draw
Difference	0.056	0.002	0.007
Standard error	0.001	0.001	0.000
95% CI	[0.0545, 0.0581]	[0.0001, 0.0038]	[0.0059, 0.0075]
t-statistic	61.71	2.027	17.448
DF	1998	1998	1998
Significance level	$P<0.0001$	$P=0.0428$	$P<0.0001$

Figure 2. Density plots of McFadden R-Squared distributions