How migrants’ food tastes shape international agro-food trade

Figures & data

Figure 1. Distribution of dyadic food similarity measures.

The figure shows the distribution of the dyadic similarity measure based on (a) the Manhattan distance, and (b) latent semantic analysis (LSA).

Table 1. Bilateral trade, migration and food tastes similarity

Dependent variable:	Bilateral trade flows
	Manhattan distance		LSA similarity
	OLS	PPML	OLS	PPML
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Migration	0.35 ***	0.26 ***	0.35 ***	0.27 ***
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Food Similarity	0.28	0.20	0.20	0.15
	(0.12)	(0.21)	(0.09)	(0.16)
Migration $\times$ Food Similarity	−0.22 ***	−0.18 ***	−0.19 ***	−0.18 ***
	(0.06)	(0.07)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Observations	70,926	145,350	70,926	145,350
R-squared	0.67	0.86	0.67	0.86

*$p<0.1$, **$p<0.05$, ***$p<0.01$

Clustered standard errors at the country-pair level in parentheses. Migration is measured as (log) total migrant stock (foreign-born) at mid-year (in thousands) and Food Similarity is a dyadic similarity measure either based on the Manhattan distance or latent semantic analysis (LSA). Controls in all models include importer and exporter GDP (in current USD) and population (in millions) in logs, log distance between most populated cities, as well as dummies for Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in force, contiguity, common official primary language, language spoken by at least 9% of the population in both countries, country pair ever in colonial relationship, common colonizer post-1945, pair currently in colonial relationship, pair in colonial relationship post-1945, countries were or are the same country. All models include importer, exporter and year fixed-effects. Models (1) and (3) are estimated by OLS, models (2) and (4) are estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML).

Figure 2. Effect of migration on food imports depending on similarity of food tastes.

The figure shows the effect(in percent) of migration on food imports depending on how similar migrants’ food tastes are relative to their host country’s food tastes based on the estimation results of model (4) in Table 1 (based on LSA similarity measure, estimated by PPML). The $y$-axisdisplaysEquation (4)(4) $\frac{\mathrm{\partial }ln{v}_{ijt}}{\mathrm{\partial }ln{M}_{ijt}}={\beta }_1+{\beta }_{3}F{S}_{ij}.$(4) , i.e. ${\beta }_1+{\beta }_{3}FS$, and how its value changes with the degree of similarity $FS$ on the $x$-axis.The grey shaded area displays a 95% confidence interval. The more similar migrants’ food tastes are to their host country’s food tastes (higher values of $FS$), the lower is the effect of migration ($M$) on food imports from the migrants’ home country ($v$).

Table 2. Bilateral trade, migration and food tastes similarity (HS Sections I–IV)

Dependent variable:	bilateral trade flows
	HS Sect. I	HS Sect. II	HS Sect. III	HS Sect. IV
Migration	0.24 ***	0.33 ***	0.08	0.26 ***
	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.06)	(0.03)
Food Similarity	0.00	−0.23	0.02	0.34 *
	(0.26)	(0.24)	(0.39)	(0.20)
Migration $\times$ Food Similarity	−0.21 ***	−0.20 ***	−0.05	−0.11 *
	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.13)	(0.06)
Observations	145,350	145,350	142,800	145,350
R-squared	0.81	0.77	0.70	0.86
*$p<0.1$, *$p<0.05$, ***$p<0.01$

Notes: Clustered standard errors at the country-pair level in parentheses. Migration is measured as (log) total migrant stock (foreign-born) at mid-year (in thousands) and Food Similarity is the dyadic similarity measure based on latent semantic analysis (LSA). Controls in all models include importer and exporter GDP (in current USD) and population (in millions) in logs, log distance between most populated cities, as well as dummies for Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in force, contiguity, common official primary language, language spoken by at least 9% of the population in both countries, country pair ever in colonial relationship, common colonizer post-1945, pair currently in colonial relationship, pair in colonial relationship post-1945, countries were or are the same country. All models include importer, exporter and year fixed-effects. All models are estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). HS Sect. I includes HS2 categories 1–5 (animals), HS Sect. II includes HS2 categories 6–14 (vegetables), HS Sect. III includes HS2 category 15 (fats and oils), and HS Sect. IV includes HS2 categories 16–24 (prepared foodstuffs).

Table A1. Bilateral trade, migration and food tastes similarity

Dependent variable:	Bilateral trade flows
	Manhattan distance		LSA similarity
	OLS	PPML	OLS	PPML
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Migration	0.35 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.26 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.35 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.27 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Food Similarity	0.28 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.20	0.20 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.15
	(0.12)	(0.21)	(0.09)	(0.16)
Migration $\times$ Food Similarity	−0.22 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.18 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.19 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.18 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.06)	(0.07)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Log Distance	−1.11 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.58 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−1.11 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.59 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.03)
Log GDP exporter	0.40 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.17 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.40 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.17 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.03)	(0.4)	(0.03)	(0.04)
Log GDP importer	0.54 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.73 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.54 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.73 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.03)	(0.05)	(0.03)	(0.05)
Log Population exporter	−0.55 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.31 ${ }^{\ast }$	−0.55 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.31 ${ }^{\ast }$
	(0.09)	(0.17)	(0.09)	(0.17)
Log Population importer	0.58 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.25 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.58 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.25 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$
	(0.08)	(0.10)	(0.08)	(0.10)
Preferential Trade Agreement	0.50 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.47 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.50 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.47 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.04)
Contiguity	0.31 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.30 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.31 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.28 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.09)	(0.07)
Common Official Language	0.29 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.16 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.29 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.15 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.07)	(0.10)	(0.07)	(0.10)
Language Spoken By At Least 9%	0.14 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.32 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.14 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.32 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.06)	(0.11)	(0.06)	(0.11)
Past Colonial Relationship	0.26 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.06 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.26 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.06 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.11)	(0.12)	(0.11)	(0.12)
Common Colonizer Post 1945	0.81 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.33 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.81 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.32 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.05)	(0.12)	(0.05)	(0.12)
Current Colonial Relationship	0.49 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	1.69 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.48 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	1.68 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(1.09)	(0.47)	(1.08)	(0.48)
Colonial Relationship Post 1945	1.06 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.53 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	1.06 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.53 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.15)
Were Or Are Same Country	0.59 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.05 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.59 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.02 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.13)	(0.10)	(0.13)	(0.10)
Observations	70,926	145,350	70,926	145,350
R-squared	0.67	0.86	0.67	0.86
${ }^{\ast }$ $p<0.1$, ${ }^{\ast \ast }$ $p<0.05$, ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$ $p<0.01$

Clustered standard errors at the country-pair level in parentheses. Migration is measured as (log) total migrant stock (foreign-born) at mid-year (in thousands) and Food Similarity is a dyadic similarity measure either based on the Manhattan distance or latent semantic analysis (LSA). All models include importer, exporter and year fixed-effects. Models (1) and (3) are estimated by OLS, models (2) and (4) are estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML).

Table A2. Bilateral trade, migration and food tastes similarity (HS Sections I–IV)

Dependent variable:	Bilateral trade flows
	HS Sect. I	HS Sect. II	HS Sect. III	HS Sect. IV
Migration	0.24 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.33 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.08 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.26 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.06)	(0.03)
Food Similarity	0.00 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.23	0.02 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.34 ${ }^{\ast }$
	(0.26)	(0.24)	(0.39)	(0.20)
Migration $\times$ Food Similarity	−0.21 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.20 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.05 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.11 ${ }^{\ast }$
	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.05)	(0.05)
Log Distance	−0.68 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.60 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.79 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.57 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.05)	(0.04)	(0.07)	(0.04)
Log GDP exporter	0.04 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.10 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.52 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.27 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.09)	(0.05)
Log GDP importer	0.90 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.81 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.18 ${ }^{\ast }$	0.59 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.06)	(0.08)	(0.09)	(0.05)
Log Population exporter	−0.07 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.57 ${ }^{\ast }$	−0.72 ${ }^{\ast }$	−0.26 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.25)	(0.22)	(0.37)	(0.19)
Log Population importer	0.10 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.15 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.08 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.46 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.16)	(0.15)	(0.25)	(0.12)
Preferential Trade Agreement	0.54 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.44 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.38 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.47 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.07)	(0.06)	(0.11)	(0.05)
Contiguity	0.52 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.00 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.53 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.32 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.15)	(0.08)
Common Official Language	−0.10 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.60 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.02 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.16 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.22)	(0.10)
Language Spoken By At Least 9%	0.30 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.67 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.00 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.17 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.21)	(0.12)
Past Colonial Relationship	0.02 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.30 ${ }^{\ast }$	0.27 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.17 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.14)	(0.16)	(0.23)	(0.13)
Common Colonizer Post 1945	0.38 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.54 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	−0.26 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.19 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.16)	(0.14)	(0.28)	(0.15)
Current Colonial Relationship	2.55 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	1.07 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$	0.91 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	1.11 ${ }^{\ast \ast }$
	(0.41)	(0.49)	(0.60)	(0.46)
Colonial Relationship Post 1945	0.56 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.79 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.54 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.51 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.17)	(0.23)	(0.43)	(0.15)
Were Or Are Same Country	0.02 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	−0.14 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$	0.26 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.00 ${ }_{\hspace{0.17em}}$
	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.26)	(0.12)
Observations	145,350	145,350	142,800	145,350
R-squared	0.81	0.77	0.70	0.86
${ }^{\ast }$ $p<0.1$, ${ }^{\ast \ast }$ $p<0.05$, ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$ $p<0.01$

Clustered standard errors at the country-pair level in parentheses. Migration is measured as (log) total migrant stock (foreign-born) at mid-year (in thousands) and Food Similarity is the dyadic similarity measure based on latent semantic analysis (LSA). All models include importer, exporter and year fixed-effects, and estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML).