The fertility effects of school entry decisions

Figures & data

Table 1. Birth months allowed to enrol early.

School year	BW**	BY	HB	HH	HE	NI	NW	RP	SL	SH
1950	-	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	-	-	-	-	-
1951	-	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	-	-	-	-	-
1952	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	-	-	4 to 6	-	-
1953	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	-	-	4 to 6	-	-
1954	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	-	-	4 to 6	-	-
1955	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	4 to 9	-	4 to 6	-	-
1956	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	6 to 7	4 to 9	-	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1957	4 to 6	-	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 9	-	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1958	1 to 3	10 to 12	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 9	-	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1959	1 to 3	10 to 12	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1960	1 to 3	10 to 12	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1961	1 to 3	10 to 12	-	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1962	1 to 3	-	-	1 to 3	1 to 3	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1963	1 to 3	-	-	1 to 3	1 to 3	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	4 to 6
1964	1 to 3	-	-	1 to 3	1 to 3	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	1 to 6
1965	1 to 3	-	-	1 to 3	1 to 3	4 to 6	4 to 6	4 to 6	-	1 to 6
1966*	1 to 3 & 7 to 11	-	-	1 to 3	12	4 to 6 & 7 to 9	4 to 6 & 12 to 2	4 to 6 & 12 to 1	-	1 to 6 & 12 to 1
1967	7 to 8	-	7 to 9	-	7 to 9	7 to 9	7 to 9	7 to 9	7 to 9	7 to 10
1968	7 to 8	-	7 to 9	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 9	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
1969	7 to 8	7 to 12	7 to 9	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
⁞	7 to 8	7 to 12	7 to 9	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
1974	7 to 8	7 to 12	7 to 9	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
1975	7 to 8	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
1976	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
⁞	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12
1994	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12	7 to 12

Notes: * In 1966, several states changed the start of the school year leading to two cohorts starting within one year. ** From 1976 onwards, Baden-Württemberg (BW) left open the range of birth months allowed to enrol early. We assume that the regulations followed arrangements in the other states.

Figure 1. Share of early enrolment by distance to the cut-off and state regulation.

Note: Based on NEPS data. Distance to the cut-off is measured in months.

Table 2. First-stage estimates.

	Early enrolment
1st month after cut-off × exception rule	0.2969***
	(0.0592)
2nd month after cut-off × exception rule	0.1080*
	(0.0553)
3rd month after cut-off × exception rule	0.1357***
	(0.0510)
More than 3 months after cut-off × exception rule	−0.0147
	(0.0332)
F-test of excluded instruments	12.12
Observations	4,448

Notes: Based on NEPS data, the table provides estimates of early enrolment on the instruments. Regressions control for the state, the birth year, the birth month, the distance to the cut-off and state-specificbirth year trends. Robust SEs are shown in parentheses. Significance: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table 3. Balancing of predetermined characteristics.

	Own mother with college degree (y/n)	Own mother’s age at birth	Own mother foreign born (y/n)	Number of older siblings
IV estimate
Early enrolment	−0.0007	0.4750	−0.0216	0.2461
	(0.0228)	(1.9443)	(0.0637)	(0.5163)
Reduced form estimate
1st month after cut-off × exception rule	0.0117	0.2045	−0.0075	0.0889
	(0.0077)	(0.6362)	(0.0207)	(0.1452)
2nd month after cut-off × exception rule	−0.0176	0.3618	−0.0103	0.027
	(0.0178)	(0.8278)	(0.0293)	(0.2690)
3rd month after cut-off × exception rule	−0.0097	−0.2364	0.0101	0.0482
	(0.0162)	(0.7222)	(0.0149)	(0.1841)
More than 3 months after cut-off × exception rule	0.0088	0.2158	0.0011	0.0419
	(0.0105)	(0.4107)	(0.0232)	(0.1378)
Observations	4,284	4,309	4,398	4,093

Note: Based on NEPS data, the table provides IV and reduced form estimates of the instruments for the outcomes listed in the first row. SEs are shown in parentheses. Significance: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table 4. Sample means and two-sample IV-estimates.

	Childlessness (y/n)	Number of children	Years of education	College degree (y/n)
Sample mean	0.189	1.65	13.20	0.139
SD	(0.391)	(1.20)	(2.73)	(0.346)
IV estimate
Early enrolment	−0.0217	0.1022*	−0.0115	−0.0037
	(0.0176)	(0.0569)	(0.1224)	(0.0153)
Observations	290,205	290,205	289,692	289,692

Note: Based on Mikrozensus data, the table provides second-stage IV estimates for the outcomes listed in the first row. Robust SEs are shown in parentheses and estimated following Pacini and Windmeijer (2016). Significance: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Pacini, D., and F. Windmeijer. 2016. “Robust Inference for the Two-Sample 2SLS Estimator.” Economics Letters 146: 50–54. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.033.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar