A note on labour market effects of supply chain bottlenecks

Figures & data

Table 1. Share of businesses with material bottlenecks by sector in percent (average share for April 2021 to January 2022).

Manufacturing industry	61.6
including:
Manufacturing of food and feed	37.3
Beverage manufacturing	17.0
Textile manufacturing	49.6
Clothing manufacturing	41.4
Leather, leather goods and footwear manufacturing	46.1
Manufacturing of wooden, cane, wicker and cork products	44.5
Manufacturing of paper, cardboard and goods made of these	50.8
Manufacturing of print products; reproduction of recorded sound, image and data storage media	57.3
Mineral oil refining	93.5
Manufacturing of chemical products	53.5
Manufacturing of pharmaceutical products	30.3
Manufacturing of rubber and plastic goods	73.6
Manufacturing of glass and glassware, ceramics, non-metallic mineral processing	36.3
Metal production and metal working	33.8
Metal product manufacturing	61.8
Manufacturing of DV equipment, electronic and optical devices	72.8
Electrical equipment manufacturing	81.8
Mechanical engineering	68.6
Automotive and automotive parts manufacturing	78.6
Other vehicle manufacturing	80.5
Furniture manufacturing	67.3
Manufacturing of other goods	40.5
Main construction industry overall	32.9
including:
Structural engineering	37.1
Civil engineering overall	27.3

Source: Ifo surveys of the economic situation.

Figure 1. Share of businesses with material bottlenecks, January 1991 to January 2022 (in %).

Source: Ifo surveys of the economic situation

Figure 2. Course of seasonally adjusted labour market parameters for the manufacturing industry and the construction industry in number of persons (January 2017 to January 2022).

Source: German Federal Employment Agency statistics

Table 2. Effects of the material shortage indicator on labour market dimensions (in %).

Entries into unemployment	Exits from unemployment	Short-time work notifications
0.88 (4.92)	−0.73 (−3.33)	3.01 (2.61)

Notes: t-values in brackets (White cross-sectional clustered standard error).

Figure 3. The Phillips curve in Germany since January 2008.

Notes: The solid line shows the unemployment rate and CPI inflation from January 2008 until January 2022. The dashed line shows the alternative development since April 2021 including the short-time work effect from our counterfactual scenario calculation. Sources: destatis, German Federal Employment Agency statistics.