Explaining Myanmar's regime transition: the periphery is central

Figures & data

Table 1. Reasons for military withdrawal.

	Military dispositions	Societal conditions
Motivations	(a) Belief in civilian supremacy.	(d) Domestic unrest, producing a legitimacy crisis, ungovernability or toppling the regime.
	(b) Threat to military cohesion.	(e) External factors: war, invasion, foreign policy disaster, withdrawal of foreign aid, sanctions.
	(c) Loss of self-confidence.
Necessary conditions	(f) Internal consensus that withdrawal is appropriate.	(h) Trustworthy civilians exist to whom power can be transferred.
	(g) Adequate protection of personal and corporate interests and ideologies under the successor regime.

Table 2. Officially-designated ethnic groups in Myanmar.

Major group	Estimated proportion of the population (2000)
Bamar	66.9
Chin	2.0
Kachin	1.4
Kayah	0.4
Karen	6.2
Mon	2.6
Rakhine	4.2
Shan	10.5
Others	5.7

Table 3. Comparison of constitutional proposals and outcome.

1993–1996 National Convention	2008 Constitution
Aims and objectives of the state: “non-disintegration of the Union; non-disintegration of national solidarity; perpetuation of sovereignty; flourishing of a genuine multiparty democracy system; … justice, liberty and equality … for the Tatmadaw to be able to participate in the national political leadership role”.	Identical, except an amendment to “genuine, disciplined multi-party democratic system”.
State structure: Seven Regions (covering predominantly Bamar central Myanmar), seven states (predominantly ethnic-minority states), and six Self-Administered Regions and zones (special autonomous areas delegated to ceasefire groups). Authority is highly centralized, with very limited local autonomy and no right to secession.	Identical, except for a change in the capital city.
Executive: Presidential system. President and Vice-Presidents to be selected by an electoral college formed from the legislature. Candidates must be born to Myanmar parents; aged at least 45; “well acquainted” with matters of state, including “military affairs”; resident in Myanmar for 20 years prior to an election; and they, their spouse, and children must “not owe allegiance to a foreign power” or be foreign citizens.^a The president appoints the cabinet, but must select military personnel as ministers and deputy ministers of defence, security/home affairs and border affairs. The president, vice-president, and ministers must resign their seats in the legislature and not participate in party activities.	Identical, though executive responsibilities are further elaborated and they may be dismissed for “inefficient discharge of duties”. A National Defence and Security Council, comprising executive, legislative, and military leaders, is also established to assist the president and assume governmental powers during emergencies.
Legislature: Bicameral national parliament comprising lower house elected on the basis of population, and upper house with equal representation from each region/state. Regional/state/zone parliaments are elected on the basis of population. Twenty-five per cent of seats are reserved for military personnel.	Identical, except House of Representative constituencies are allocated to townships as well as by population, and parliamentary responsibilities and procedures are elaborated.
Judiciary: Independent. Hierarchy of supreme court, region/state high courts, and subordinate law courts.	Identical. Judicial responsibilities are further elaborated; “judges may be dismissed for inefficient discharge of duties”.
Military: Military affairs are governed “independently” by the Tatmadaw. During a “state of emergency characterized by inability to perform executive functions”, the president may assert executive powers but the army also “has the right … to pre-empt that danger and provide protection”. The army is assigned responsibility for “safeguarding non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty” and protecting the constitution. If these are threatened, the army commander-in-chief “has the right to take over and exercise state power”.	Identical, except for provisions for the National Defence and Security Council to reassume governmental power and restore democracy once the emergency ends; the army commander-in-chief is given vice-presidential status; and military justice is the military's sole domain.

^aThese conditions were designed to render Aung San Suu Kyi ineligible.