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ABSTRACT
The Muslim Brothers’ transition from religious movement to majority-seeking party in Egypt’s post 2011 democratic experiment offered a key test of the inclusion-moderation hypothesis. While the MB’s increasing religious and organizational conservatism at new electoral thresholds appears to challenge the hypothesis, I argue that it was the result of strategic adaptation based on functional alternative interpretations of political opportunity that did not require a trade-off between power-seeking and expressive goals, constrained by prior pathways of electoral adaptation, and shaped by the ambiguous political incentives of democratic transition. This article shows that the MB, like other religious parties, has alternated between strategies for electoral adaptation, challenging expectations of linear evolution; that majority-seeking sometimes encourages intra-movement dynamics that are radicalizing as well as moderating; and shows that expressive goals and identity remain important to religious parties even in office, and make some paths of adaptation more attractive while precluding others. While the case affirms the relevance of political learning mechanisms predicted by inclusion-moderation theory, the divergent outcomes of this learning suggest the need to focus on the contexts and motivations that set movements along one of multiple possible adaptive pathways.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 Masoud, “Are they democrats?”; Schwedler, “Democratization, Inclusion.”
2 Schwedler, Faith in Moderation.
3 el-Ghobashy, “Metamorphosis of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers.”
4 Grewal, “Pathways of Moderation in Tunisia’s Ennahda.”
5 Wegner and Pellicer, “Islamist Moderation Without Democratization.”
6 Schwedler, Faith in Moderation.
7 Gunther and Diamond, “Species of Political Parties,” 183.
8 Schwedler, Faith in Moderation; el-Ghobashy, “Metamorphosis of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers.”
9 el-Ghobashy, “Metamorphosis”; Brown, When Victory is Not an Option.
10 Tezcur, “The Moderation Theory Revisited”; Brown, When Victory is Not an Option.
11 El-Ghobashy, “Metamorphosis,” 390.
12 Brocker and Kunkler, “Religious Parties,” 174–80; Jaffrelot, “Refining the moderation thesis.”
13 Masoud, “Are they Democrats?”
14 Clark, “The Conditions of Islamist Moderation.”
15 Schwedler, Faith in Moderation, 152.
16 Kramer, “Islamist Notions of Democracy”; Schwedler, “Democratization, Inclusion.”
17 Hamzawy and Brown, “A Boon or a Bane for Democracy?,” 52
18 Brocker and Kunkler, “Religious Parties.”
19 Brocker and Kunkler, “Religious Parties.”
20 Tezcur, “The Moderation Theory Revisited,” 70.
21 Shehata and Stacher, The Brotherhood Goes to Parliament.
22 Wickham, The Muslim Brotherhood, 92–94, 102, 129–47.
23 Shehata, “Political daʻwa.”
24 Rady, Al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun.
25 Wickham, The Muslim Brotherhood, 149.
26 Masoud, Counting Islam, 221–22.
27 Jaffrelot, “Refining the moderation thesis,” 878; Rady, Al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun.
28 Brown, When Victory is Not an Option, 51; Kandil, Inside the Brotherhood, 14–15.
29 Fi Nour al-Islam, 622–23, 718–27.
30 Fi Nour al-Islam, 629–631.
31 Brown, When Victory is Not an Option, Ch. 3.
32 al-Shater, “The Nahda Project.”
33 Interview, AD, Cairo, September 2013.
34 Interview, AB, Cairo, September 2013; Interview, HAM, November 23, 2013.
35 Interview AK, Cairo, May 2013; Interview, AS and YS, Cairo, September 2013.
36 Jaffrelot, Refining the moderation thesis.
37 Interview, AB, Cairo, September 2013.
38 Interview, AD, Cairo, September 2013.
39 Interview, MQ, Cairo, September 2013.
40 Amira el-Howeidy, “Message from the young Brothers.” Al-Ahram Weekly No. 1041 March 31-April 6, 2011.
41 al-Shater, “The Nahda Project.”
42 al-Shater, “The Nahda Project.”
43 Interviews, YS and AB, Cairo, September 2013.
44 Interview, AK, Cairo, May 2013; Fann al-Taʻamul.
45 Interview, AB, Cairo, September 2013.
46 Interviews, YS and AB, Cairo, September 2013.
47 Interviews, AB and YS, Cairo, September 2013.
48 Interview, AD, Cairo, September 2013; Jamal and Masoud, “Who Votes Islamist and Why?”
49 Hamid, Temptations of Power; Masoud, Counting Islam, 135.
50 Speeches by Morsi and Essam el-Erian at election rally, Cairo University, May 12, 2012.
51 Interviews, AB and AD, Cairo, September 2013.
52 Al-Anani, “Rethinking the Muslim Brotherhood”; Noha el-Hennawy, “Morsy Campaign Rediscovers Religion’s Potency in Politics.” Al-Masry al-Youm (English edition), May 3, 2012. Interview, AS and YS, Cairo, September 2013.
53 Hamid, Temptations of Power, 154–55.
54 Maggie Michael, “Egypt Brotherhood takes harder line in campaign,” Associated Press, May 15, 2012; Ahmed Owais, “Al-Ikhwan yaftahun al-nar ‘ala al-‘ilamiyin wa yasfunuhum bi kadhbat faraon,” Al-Shorouk May 14, 2012; Personal observations at Morsi election rally May 12, 2012.
55 Wickham, The Muslim Brotherhood, 253.
56 Wickham, The Muslim Brotherhood, 266.
57 Al-Arabiya, “Brotherhood member responds to criticism over women’s rights article in Egypt constitution,” October 7, 2012; Ahmed Aboul Enein, “Brotherhood leader defends constitutional article,” Daily News Egypt, October 7, 2012.
58 Ahmed Feteha, “Egypt tourism officials expect little change under Morsi – for now,” Ahram Online, June 27, 2012; Tom Perry and Tamim Elyan, “In power, Egypt’s Brotherhood seeks balance on Islamic law,” Reuters, July 25, 2012.
59 Khaled Amayreh, “Egypt’s Unreasonable Opposition,” Ikhwanweb February 2013. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/print.php?id=30662; further columns from MB leaders on online forums since closed down, echoing these views, are archived and translated at: https://mbinenglish.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/christians-and-liberals-take-part-in-28-november/
61 Personal observations at Rabaʻa al-Adaweyya, June 28, 2013.
62 Wegner and Pellicer, “Islamist Moderation Without Democratization.”
63 Interview, AS, Cairo, September 2013.
64 Interviews in Brown and Dunne, “Unprecedented Pressures”; Charles Levinson, “Egypt’s Islamists Struggle to Bridge Divide.” Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2013; Robert F. Worth, “A Familiar Role for Muslim Brotherhood: Opposition,” New York Times, July 28, 2013.
65 Interview, AS, September 2013.
66 Interview, AS and YS September 2013; Jayson Casper, “The People Chose Us: Inside the Mind of the Muslim Brotherhood,” Atlantic Council, August 22, 2013; Interview with FJP leader Gehad el-Haddad, PBS NewsHour September 17, 2013.
67 Sarah Lynch, “Muslim Brotherhood Down, but not out, in Egypt,” USA Today September 23, 2013.
68 Interviews, AS, YS and AB, Cairo, September 2013.
69 Tom Perry and Abdelrahman Youssef, “In Egypt, Ideas of a Radical Islamist Make a Comeback,” Reuters, December 2, 2013; “Azhar and Brotherhood exchange conflicting fatwas over referendum,” Mada Masr, December 22, 2013.
70 Youssef, “The Brotherhood’s Changing Approach”; Ikhwanweb, “The Muslim Brotherhood Calls for Unity on January 25 Revolution Anniversary,” January 22, 2014. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=31536&ref=search.php.
71 “Muslim Brotherhood Supports Call for Retribution,” Daily News Egypt, May 31, 2015 http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2015/05/31/muslim-brotherhood-supports-call-for-retribution/; statement titled “Nida’a el-Kenanah” here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIc_5bTHjq0.
72 Mahmoud Ghozlan, “Bi munasibah murur sabaʻ wa thamaneen ʻaman ʻala taʻsees al-gamaʻa: daʻwatna baqiyah wa thawratna mustamirrah,” May 22, 2015. http://old.egyptwindow.net/Article_Details.aspx?Kind=5&News_ID=80417.
73 Mayy el-Sheikh and David Kirkpatrick, “Push for Retribution in Egypt Frays Muslim Brotherood,” New York Times, August 5, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/world/middleeast/younger-muslim-brotherhood-members-in-egypt-bridle-at-nonviolent-stance.html?_r=0.
74 “Al-Ikhwan yuqaddamoon khitah aʻjalah li-tasheeh al-wadaʻ al-maqlubah fi Misr,” Freedom and Justice Party May 9, 2014 (no longer on the website, archived).
75 Mohammed Adam, “Waiting for God’s Victory,” Mada Masr, April 13, 2014. http://www.madamasr.com/sections/politics/waiting-god’s-victory.
76 Brown and Dunne, “Unprecedented Pressures,” 11.
77 Ibid., 14.
78 Awad and Hashem, “Egypt’s Escalating Islamist Insurgency.”
79 Brown and Dunne, “Unprecedented Pressures,” 13; Awad, “Egypt’s New Radicalism.”
80 Abu el-Ezz Dhiya al-Din Assad, “Fiqh al-Muqawamah al-Shaʻbiyah li-l-Inqilab,” January 27, 2015, archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20151115033242/http://www.m5zn.com/d/?15622076.
81 Fiqh al-muqawamah; reiterated in press release, “Bayan min al-hai’yah al-shara‘iyyah ila jamiyyat al-Ikhwan,” August 22, 2015. http://qalyubiagate.com/?p=46831.
82 Ibrahim el-Hodeiby, “The Muslim Brotherhood in Transition,” Mada Masr, March 18, 2015; Ayyash, “The Brotherhood’s Post-Pacifist Approach.”
83 “Muslim Brotherhood Statement on the Cold-Blooded Assassination of its Leaders,” July 1, 2015. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=32199.
84 Gamal abd al-Sattar, “Khutut faasilah bayn al-silmiyyah wa-l-thawriyyah,” August 25, 2015. http://qalyubiagate.com/?p=47120.
85 Georges Fahmi, “The Struggle for the Leadership of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 14, 2015. http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/07/14/struggle-for-leadership-of-egypt-s-muslim-brotherhood/idbr; Mostafa Hashem, The Great Brotherhood Divide,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2, 2016. http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/?fa=62942.
86 Brown and Dunne, “Unprecedented Pressures,” 17–18.
87 Ibid., 9.
88 Brocker and Kunkler, “Religious Parties,” 177–80.
89 Khalil al-Anani, “The Islamists’ Paradox: Inclusion and Moderation,” Al-Ahram Weekly, May 14, 2013. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/4/71454/Opinion/The-Islamists-paradox-Inclusion-and-moderation.aspx.
90 Ibrahim el-Hodeiby, “The Muslim Brotherhood in Transition,” Mada Masr March 18, 2015.
91 Abdelrahman Youssef, “Egyptian Brotherhood Leader Reflects on Group’s Mistakes, Future,” Al-Monitor, May 22, 2016. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/egypt-brotherhood-leader-interview-sisi-mistakes-future.html; Amr Darrag and Steven Brooke, “Politics or Piety? Why the Muslim Brotherhood Engages in Social Service Provision: A Conversation,” Brookings Papers, May 2016. http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2016/05/muslim-brotherhood-social-service-darrag-brooke.
92 Monica Marks, “Reaction essay: Rethinking Political Islam” Brookings Institution, December 2015. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2015/07/rethinking-political-islam/reaction-essays/Tunisia_Marks.pdf.
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Sumita Pahwa
Sumita Pahwa is an Assistant Professor of Politics at Scripps College in California. Her book project focuses on the changing framing and operationalization of the Islamist project by movements in Egypt and Morocco, based on four years of field research. She received her Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins University.