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ABSTRACT
Previous research has found little systematic evidence that election violence has any uniform effect on voter turnout. Nonetheless, its continued strategic use, especially by incumbent governments, suggests that many politicians believe violence somehow helps win elections. Using survey data from 32 African countries, I examine the impact of fear of election violence on vote intention and candidate support at the presidential level. Similar to findings from the literature on negative campaigning, fear of election violence appears to mobilize support, but only for opposition candidates. Fear of election violence is associated with increased support for opposition candidates by both opposition party members and non-partisans. Furthermore, it appears to produce a backlash effect for incumbent candidates, decreasing their support among non-partisans. Fear of election violence, rather than increasing the chance of victory, could be costing incumbents support at the polls.
Acknowledgements
A previous version of this manuscript was presented at the Folke Bernadotte Academy Research Workshop and Research-Policy-Dialogue on Elections in Emerging Democracies in Stockholm, Sweden. I would like to thank all participants for their constructive comments, in particular Dorina Bekoe, Nic Cheesman, Ursula Daxecker, Hanna Fjelde, Kristine Hoglund, Mimmi Soderberg Kovachs, and Inken von Borzyskowski.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus, “Perils of Pluralism”; Burchard, Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
2 Taylor, Pevehouse, and Straus, “Perils of Pluralism,” 403.
3 Burchard, Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
4 Ibid.
5 Arinaitwe, “Museveni Employs Intimidation.”
6 eNews Channel Africa, “Ugandan Presidential Hopefuls.”
7 Ibid.
8 Fisher, “AIDS Permeates Ugandan Politics.”
9 Human Rights Watch, “Uganda.”
10 European Union Election Observation Mission, “Uganda.”
11 The Guardian, “Uganda's Chief Opposition Leader.”
12 Based on International IDEA data from 2014 to 2019.
13 Bratton, “Vote Buying and Violence”; Collier and Vicente, “Votes and Violence.”
14 Bekoe and Burchard, “The Contradictions of Pre-Election Violence.”
15 Burchard, Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
16 Hafner-Burton, Hyde, and Jablonski, “Surviving Elections.”
17 Benerjee et al., “Are Poor Voters Indifferent?”
18 LeBas, “Ethnicity and the Willingness to Sanction”.
19 Blaire et al., “Poverty and Support for Militant Politics.”
20 Ansolabehere et al., “Does Attack Advertising Demobilize?” and Ansolabehere and Iyengar, Going Negative.
21 See Lau and Pomper, “Negative Campaigning by US Senate Candidates”; Clinton and Lapinski, “‘Targeted’ Advertising and Voter Turnout”; Brooks, “The Resilient Voter”; Arcenaux and Nickerson, “Comparing Negative and Positive.”
22 Lau and Pomper, “Negative Campaigning by US Senate Candidates.”
23 Brooks and Geer, “Beyond Negativity.”
24 See Marcus and MacKuen, “Anxiety, Enthusiasm, and the Vote” and Brader, “Striking a Responsive Chord.”
25 Marcus, Neuman, and MacKuen, Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment.
26 Weber, “Emotions, Campaigns, and Political Participation.”
27 Lau and Pomper, Negative Campaigning.
28 Fridkin and Kenney, “Do Negative Messages Work?”
29 Ladd and Lenz, “Reassessing the Role of Anxiety,” and Ladd and Lenz, “Does Anxiety Improve Voters’ Decision Making?”
30 Lau, Sigelman, and Rovner, “The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns.”
31 See Brader, “Striking a Responsive Chord” and Brooks and Geer, “Beyond Negativity.”
32 See Fridkin and Kenney, “Do Negative Messages Work?”; Lau, Sigelman, and Rovner, “The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns”; Ladd and Lenz, “Reassessing the Role of Anxiety”; Ladd and Lenz, “Does Anxiety Improve Voters’ Decision Making?”
33 Lau and Pomper, “Negative Campaigning by US Senate Candidates”; Lau and Pomper, Negative Campaigning.
34 Strauss and Taylor, “Democratization and Electoral Violence”; Bekoe and Burchard, “The Contradictions of Pre-Election Violence.”
35 Soderstrom, “Fear of Electoral Violence.”
36 See Bardall, “Breaking the Mould”; Ojok and Acol, “Connecting the Dots.”
37 Bardall, “Breaking the Mould.”
38 Straus, “It's Sheer Horror Here.”
39 Ibid.
40 Okyere, “Electoral Violence and Mass Atrocity Prevention.”
41 Pforr, “Femlogit—Implementation.”
42 The same relationship holds when the independent variable is treated as a binary measure, reflecting no fear of election-related violence versus any fear (a little fear, some fear, and a lot of fear).
43 Cancela and Geys, “Explaining Voter Turnout.”
44 Bratton, Bhavnani, and Chen, “Voting Intentions in Africa.”
45 Carlson, “Ethnic Voting and Accountability.”
46 See Ansolabehere et al., “Does Attack Advertising Demobilize?”; Ansolabehere and Iyengar, Going Negative; Lau and Pomper, “Negative Campaigning.”
47 Burchard 2015, Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
48 Ibrahim 2016, “The 2016 Election in Niger.”
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Stephanie M. Burchard
Stephanie M. Burchard is a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, Virginia. Her research focuses on electoral violence and defence and security issues in Africa. She is the author of Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Consequences (2015).