Four ways to avoid centripetal effects. How political actors escape institutional incentives in divided societies

Figures & data

Table 1. Max. vote shares of Radicals (for the group, where Radicals are stronger), and joint vote share of the Moderates of the two groups, in elections to the Local Council.

Municipality	Year	max. Radical vote %	Moderate vote % (both groups)
Struga	2005	45.2	43.7
(Macedonia)	2009	35.5	39.7
	2013	32.2	66.7
Kičevo	2005	41.3	55.5
(Macedonia)	2009	40.6	47.3
	2013	45.8	51.7
Bujanovac	2002	17.9	62.4
(Serbia)	2006^a	29.3	48.8
	2008	24.5	56.2
	2010	24.5	56.2
Prijepolje	2004^a	38.6	42.1
(Serbia)	2009	29.3	64.6
Târgu Mureș	2000	19.9	66.3
(Romania)	2004	19.4	65.7
	2008	1.5	82.9

^aLocal Council seat %.

Table 2. Mayoral elections in five evenly split towns, overview of variables.

Municipality	Year	Candidates qualifying for runoff (Groups A/B; R = Radical; M = Moderate)	Election type	Voting patterns		Electoral alliances		Ethnic engineering		Elected
				centripetal effect	inter-ethnic vote	of Radicals	ethnic bloc	changing the electorate	pol. salience of cult. identities
Struga	2005	RA MA^a	direct	no	no	no	no	(yes)	no	RA
(Macedonia)	2009	RA M $\tilde{B}$	direct	yes	yes (MBC)	yes (secret deal)	no	no	yes	RA
	2013	MA RB	direct	yes	yes (Torbeši)	no	yes (both sides)	yes (MA)	no	MA
Kičevo	2005	RA MA	direct	no	yes	no	no	no	no	RA
(Macedonia)	2009	MA elected in 1st round	direct	no	yes (Radicals)	yes	no	no	no	RA
	2013	MA elected in 1st round	direct	no	no	no	yes (both sides)	yes (MA)	no	MA
Bujanovac	2002	MA MB	direct	N.A.	N.A.	no	yes (Albanians)	no	no	MA
(Serbia)	2006	MA RB	direct	no	no	no	yes (Albanians)	no	no	MA
	2008		assembly	no	no	no	yes (Albanians)	no	no	MA
	2010		assembly	yes	yes	no	yes (Albanians)	no	no	MA
Prijepolje	2004	MB RB	direct	yes	yes	no	no	no	no	MB
(Serbia)	2009		assembly	no	yes	no	yes (Serbs)	no	no	RA
Târgu Mureș	2000	MA RB	direct	no	no	no	yes (Hungarians)	yes (RB)	(yes^b)	MA
(Romania)	2004	MA elected in first round	direct	no	no	no	yes (Hungarians)	yes (RB)	no	MA
	2008	MA elected in first round	direct	no	no	no	yes (Hungarians)	no	no	MA

^aIn the Struga elections of 2005, the candidate MA withdrew from the runoff, due to fears of violence.

^bMA targeting Roma votes.