The impact of security issues on government evaluation: evidence from the Arab World

Figures & data

Table 1. The impacts of security concern and economic evaluations on government support.

	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
Security Internal	−0.059	(0.005)	−0.059	(0.006)	−0.059	(0.006)
Security External	0.121	(0.000)	0.124	(0.000)	0.125	(0.000)
Economic Evaluation	0.788	(0.000)	0.748	(0.000)	0.747	(0.000)
Party Closeness			0.747	(0.000)	0.747	(0.000)
Religiosity			0.123	(0.000)	0.123	(0.000)
Unemployment			−0.009	(0.719)	−0.009	(0.714)
Age			0.005	(0.000)	0.005	(0.000)
Education			−0.080	(0.000)	−0.080	(0.000)
Female			0.072	(0.001)	0.073	(0.001)
Income			0.155	(0.000)	0.154	(0.000)
Monarchy					0.570	(0.177)
Oil					−0.599	(0.154)
National Unemployment					−0.685	(0.106)
Freedom Rating					0.264	(0.039)
constant	−2.581	(0.000)	−3.281	(0.000)	−3.055	(0.009)
AIC	55246.355		54290.095		54287.071
BIC	55299.544		54405.337		54437.772
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: country	0.268		0.308		0.283
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: survey	0.220		0.238		0.166
Prob. >${\chi }^2$	0.000		0.000		0.000

Source: Arab Barometer. p-values in parentheses. N = 52,302. No. of Surveys: 39.

Table 2. The interaction of security concern and economic evaluations.

	Model 4		Model 5		Model 6
Security Internal	−0.216	(0.000)	−0.232	(0.000)	−0.233	(0.000)
Security External	−0.125	(0.056)	−0.134	(0.042)	−0.134	(0.042)
Economic Evaluation	0.752	(0.000)	0.709	(0.000)	0.708	(0.000)
Economy X Internal Sec.	0.069	(0.006)	0.076	(0.003)	0.077	(0.003)
Economy X External Sec.	0.105	(0.000)	0.110	(0.000)	0.111	(0.000)
Party Closeness			0.747	(0.000)	0.748	(0.000)
Religiosity			0.123	(0.000)	0.122	(0.000)
Unemployment			−0.009	(0.727)	−0.009	(0.722)
Age			0.005	(0.000)	0.005	(0.000)
Education			−0.080	(0.000)	−0.080	(0.000)
Female			0.073	(0.001)	0.074	(0.001)
Income			0.156	(0.000)	0.155	(0.000)
Monarchy					0.576	(0.175)
Oil					−0.606	(0.151)
National Unemployment					−0.700	(0.099)
Freedom Rating					0.268	(0.036)
constant	−2.498	(0.000)	−3.195	(0.000)	−2.957	(0.011)
AIC	55227.660		54268.793		54265.484
BIC	55298.579		54401.765		54433.915
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: country	0.275		0.315		0.288
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: survey	0.219		0.237		0.164
Prob. > ${\chi }^2$	0.000		0.000		0.000

Source: Arab Barometer. p-values in parentheses. N = 52,302. No. of Surveys: 39.

Figure 1. Impact of external security conditional on economic evaluation.

Figure 2. Impact of internal security conditional on economic evaluation.

Table A1: List of cases

Country	AB Wave II	AB Wave III	AB Wave IV	AB Wave V
Years	2010–2011	2012–2014	2016–2017	2018–2019
Algeria	950	981	1098	—
Egypt	1175	1068	1145	1935
Iraq	1132	1101	—	2183
Jordan	1044	1700	1,171	2294
Kuwait	—	941	—	—
Lebanon	1329	1159	790	2,356
Libya	—	1107	—	1839
Morocco	—	988	1108	1820
Palestine	1079	1152	1158	2276
Saudi Arabia	1107	—	—	—
Sudan	1202	1002	—	1468
Tunisia	1094	1090	1127	2007
Yemen	842	1125	—	2159
Total	10954	13414	7597	20337

The figures represent the number of individuals in each national survey who answered all questions under study.

Table A2: Descriptive Statistics

Variable	Obs.	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Satisfaction	52302	0.305	0.461	0.000	1.000
Security Internal	52302	0.242	0.526	0.000	2.000
Security External	52302	0.196	0.514	0.000	2.000
Economic Evaluation	52302	2.035	0.863	1.000	4.000
Party Closeness	52302	0.140	0.347	0.000	1.000
Religiosity	52302	2.270	0.623	1.000	3.000
Age	52302	38.182	14.150	18.000	95.000
Education	52302	3.591	1.405	1.000	6.000
Female	52302	1.496	0.500	1.000	2.000
Unemployment	52302	0.374	0.484	0.000	1.000
Income	52302	2.300	0.947	1.000	4.000
Monarchy	52302	0.233	0.423	0.000	1.000
Oil	52302	0.180	0.384	0.000	1.000
National Unemployment	52302	2.497	0.436	1.035	3.272
Freedom Rating	52302	5.314	1.077	2.000	7.000

Table A3: Does an increase in the impact of external actors on the functioning of the state lead citizens to be more concerned with foreign interference?

DV: External Security Concerns	Model A
ATET - External Intervention	0.057	(0.000)
Difference-in-differences regression. Repeated cross-sectional

Sources: Arab Barometer and Fragile States Index. p-values in parentheses. N=46637.

Table A4: Does an increase in national safety and security problems lead citizens to be more concerned with internal stability and security?

DV: Internal Security Concerns	Model B
ATET - Safety and Security	0.153	(0.000)
Difference-in-differences regression. Repeated cross-sectional

Sources: Arab Barometer and The Global Peace Index. p-values in parentheses. N=50071.

Table A5: Does an increase in national unemployment lead citizens to give lower evaluation of the economy?

DV: Economic Evaluation	Model C
ATET - National Unemployment	−1.337	(0.000)
Difference-in-differences regression. Repeated cross-sectional
Sources: Arab Barometer and World Development Indicators. p-values in parentheses. N=50071.

Table A6: Description of Control Variables

	Variable Name	Measurement	Data Source
Individual-level	Party closeness	A binary variable coded 1 if an individual identifies with the incumbent party and 0 otherwise.	Arab Barometer
	Religiosity	It measures individuals’ evaluation of their own religiosity, ranging from “not religious” (coded 1) to “religious” (coded 3).
	Age	Measured as age in years
	Education	An individual’s level of education, ranging from no formal education (coded 1) to post graduate education (coded 6).
	Income	A categorical variable, with higher values indicating fewer financial difficulties.
	Female	A binary variable, with 0 for male and 1 for female.
	Unemployment	Measured at the individual level as a binary variable coded 1 for unemployed individuals and 0 otherwise.
National-level	National Unemployment	Measured as a base-10 logarithm of the percentage of the national workforce seeking a job	World Development Indicators (WDI)
	Oil	A country’s status as a major oil producer, coded 1 for oil-producing countries and 0 otherwise.
	Freedom Rating (PR & CL)	People’s access to political rights and civil liberties, with lower values indicating more freedoms	Freedom House Index
	Monarchy	Coded 1 for monarchies and 0 otherwise	Autocratic Regime Dataset

Table A7: The Impacts of Security Concerns on Government Support: without economic indicators

	Model C		Model D		Model E
Security Internal	−0.025	(0.213)	−0.025	(0.226)	−0.025	(0.221)
Security External	0.207	(0.000)	0.210	(0.000)	0.210	(0.000)
Party Closeness			0.814	(0.000)	0.813	(0.000)
Religiosity			0.141	(0.000)	0.139	(0.000)
Age			0.006	(0.000)	0.006	(0.000)
Education			−0.056	(0.000)	−0.060	(0.000)
Female			0.086	(0.000)	0.102	(0.000)
Unemployment					−0.069	(0.005)
Monarchy					1.262	(0.001)
Oil					−0.022	(0.957)
Freedom Rating					0.291	(0.045)
constant	−0.856	(0.000)	−1.446	(0.000)	−3.337	(0.000)
AIC	58792.955		57798.248		57785.572
BIC	58837.279		57886.896		57909.679
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: country	0.403		0.483		0.259
${\sigma }_{\mu }^2$: survey	0.334		0.339		0.270
Prob. > χ^2	0.000		0.000		0.000

Source: Arab Barometer. p-values in parentheses. N=52302. No. of Surveys: 39.