A machine learning approach to the study of German strategic culture

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of documents, units, and hand-coded units.

Document type	Documents	Units	Hand-coded units
Plenary protocols	998	3,884	300
Parliament	3,856	7,886	501
Bulletin	252	303	119
Spiegel	1,762	1,973	320
Taz	799	722	194
Die Zeit	415	511	116
Süddeutsche Zeitung	1,149	1,207	193
Total	9,231	16,486	1,743

Table 2. Coding scheme for strategic culture.

Characteristic	Intensity
	Idealpolitik	Realpolitik
Justified ends	Humanity/Peace	National Interest
Nature of missions	Reactive	Proactive
International legitimization	UN	Allies
Domestic legitimization	Parliament	Government
Utility of force	Force cannot enforce peace	Force can enforce peace
Self-conception	Non-interventionist	Interventionist
Nature of international system	Positive-sum	Zero-sum

Table 3. Examples of the coding scheme for strategic culture.

Characteristic	Intensity
	Idealpolitik	Realpolitik
Justified ends	“The overarching goal of German security policy is securing peace.” (Scharping, 1999)	“ … purely humanitarian reasons do not justify the deployment of German soldiers, however national interest always has an impact.” (Himpsl, 2011)
Nature of missions	“According [to Basic Law] the Bundeswehr has only one responsibility: Defense against violent attacks.” (Schemel, 2010)	“The future could for example be ‘Bosnia’: not defending against an aggressor but ensuring order; not defense of the own territory, but intervention and projection of power.” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 1995)
International legitimization	“[German policy is based on] world-wide respect for international law and human rights, as well as securing peace through … the UN.” (Scharping, 1999)	“[NATO] wants to counter American demands by increasing defense spending in Europe and strengthen its role in the fight against terrorism.” (Brössler, 2017)
Domestic legitimization	“We have a defense oriented Basic Law, which stipulated the primacy of policy over the armed forces. This also includes extensive participation and inspection rights of Parliament.” (Merkel, 2008)	“Merkel should take on more responsibility for the Bundeswehr deployment to Afghanistan [and articulate German national interest more unequivocally].” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 2009)
Utility of force	“Bombs do not make peace, neither Russian nor American bombs. Moreover, the German assistance to the Bomb-war in Syria does not make peace.” (Dağdelen, 2016)	“The developments in the Balkans have taught us that there are situations in which peace cannot be guaranteed only by diplomatic, political or economic means.” (Schröder, 2005)
Self-conception	“We are willing to participate in UN peace-keeping missions, which are risky enough. Furthermore, Germans think that they had fired enough rounds in this century.” (Glotz, 1993)	“Today we are discussing the use of the European intervention force, because a new and devastating development can be observed in Ituri that has striking similarities with the situation before the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.” (Weigel, 2003)
Nature of international system	“[The] European Army Corps … will contribute to the defense of NATO countries, peace-keeping, peace-making and humanitarian efforts.” (Bertram, 1992)	“It is consequently correct, to eliminate the danger at its root. This is also in the interest of our own security.” (Jung, 2009)

Figure 1. German strategic culture and behavior between 1990 and 2017.

Table 4. Results from the linear regression.

Independent variables	Model 1	Model 2
Strategic culture	0.036* (0.015)	0.026* (0.013)
Casualties	0.041** (0.009)	0.046** (0.007)
Elections	−0.085 (0.059)	0.031 (0.046)
UN missions	−0.187** (0.060)	−0.220** (0.049)
EU missions	0.139* (0.060)	0.108* (0.053)
NATO missions	−0.071 (0.057)	−0.053 (0.052)
Constant	0.654 (0.054)	0.626 (0.051)
R^2	0.366	0.445

N (text units) = 1976. Standard errors in parentheses. Two-sided t-test: **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05.

Model 2 = independent variables at t−1.

Scharping, R. (1999, September 23). Rede an der Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr in Hamburg. Bulletin der Bundesregierung, 99(56). https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/975954/772862/9326d2cc64a715fa62c67873712d01c2/56-99scharping-data-pdf?download=1

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