Roses and Tulips: Dynamics of Regime Change in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

The regime changes in Georgia (2003) and Kyrgyzstan (2005) that resulted in the overthrow of Presidents Shevardnadze and Akaev are widely considered to be part of a common phenomenon of ‘coloured revolution’ in the post-Soviet space. A key factor was the rise of successful opposition movements that dislodged the ruling regimes. However, in contrast with the widespread notion that opposition unity was a prerequisite for the overthrow of the presidents, opposition parties found it too difficult to coordinate their actions and their leaders could not agree how best to challenge the election results. Neither was it the case that the Rose and Tulip revolutions were orchestrated by Western agencies seeking to induce a change of government so as to further US interests in the region. Such analyses exaggerate the influence of foreign actors in the Rose and Tulip revolutions, and over-estimate the unity of purpose among the main opposition parties.

Notes

See Stephen F. Jones's reference to Lewis Namier's Vanquished Supremacies (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1958), in ‘Reflection on the Rose Revolution: A Tale of Two Rallies’, Harvard International Review, 16 March 2008.

Zurab Karumidze and James V. Wertsch (eds.), Enough! The Rose Revolution in the Republic of Georgia (New York: Nova, 2005), p.59.

Mark Mullen, director of NDI in Georgia 1997–2004, in conversation with the author, London, 30 April 2008.

See Tracey C. German, ‘The Pankisi Gorge: Georgia's Achilles’ Heel in its Relations with Russia?', Central Asian Survey, Vol.23, No.1 (2004) pp.27–39.

Cory Welt, ‘Georgia: Causes of the Rose Revolution and Lessons for Democracy Assistance’ (Washington, DC: Management Systems International, 18 March 2005), p.9.

Based on interviews conducted by the author in Kyrgyzstan throughout 2003–8.

Tea Gularidze and Giorgi Sepashvili, ‘AES Posed to Pull Out, Russian Company Takes Over’, Civil Georgia, 29 July 2003, available at <http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=4657>, accessed 18 July 2008.

The travails of AES Telasi are vividly portrayed in the documentary film ‘Power Trip’, directed by Paul Devlin (Independent Lens, USA, 2004).

Ghia Nodia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 28 July 2005.

RIA news agency, Moscow (in Russian), 20 March 2005: BBC Monitoring.

Based on author's interviews with Bishkek residents, March–May 2005.

Matthew Collin, The Time of the Rebels (London: Serpent's Tail, 2007), which looks at youth movements in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Serbia and Azerbaijan, is an example of the genre.

Giorgi Kandelaki (Kmara leader), interview with author, Tbilisi, 31 July 2005, and Kakha Lomaia (Director of Soros Foundation Georgia in 2003), interview with author, Tbilisi, 29 Jan. 2008.

See Alisher Khamidov, ‘Kyrgyzstan's Revolutionary Youth: Between State and Opposition’, SAIS Review, Vol.26, No.2 (2006), pp.85–93.

Burul Usmanalieva, interview with author, Bishkek, 9 March 2005.

Mirsuljan Namazaliev (leader of Birge), interview with author, Bishkek, 30 May 2008.

In 2001 Shevardnadze tried to shut down Rustavi 2 but this merely provoked large-scale demonstrations and the Georgian president was forced to backtrack; this was an important victory for anti-Shevardnadze forces and demonstrated both the weakness of the regime and the potential strength of collective action: Levan Ramishvili (Director of Liberty Institute), interview with author, Tbilisi, 28 July 2005.

Burul Usmanalieva (KelKel leader) and Tima Moldogaziev (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) long-term media monitor in the run-up and during February–March 2005), interview with author, 9 and 12 March 2005 respectively.

Giorgi Kandelaki (Kmara leader), interview with author, Tbilisi, 30 July 2005; the ditty rhymes in Georgian: ‘Shevardnadze, shen xar seni, dagvekhseni’.

Edil Baisalov (then head of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society), interview with author, Bishkek, 12 March 2005.

Rina Prijivoit (chief political editor of MSN newspaper; subsequently appointed on 13 September 2005 Kyrgyzstan's ambassador to the OSCE, Austria, Czech Republic and Hungary until dismissed by presidential decree on 22 December 2008), interview with author, Bishkek, 10 March 2005, and Zamira Sydykova (editor of Respublika newspaper, later in 2005, Ms. Sydykova was appointed Kyrgyzstan's Ambassador to the United States and Canada), interview with author, Bishkek, 11 March 2005.

Zamira Sydykova, interview with author, Bishkek, 11 March 2005.

The five conditions listed are: 1. the formation of a unified opposition; 2. an increase in voter registration and turnout accomplishing an improvement in the quality of voter lists; 3. focusing the campaign debate on what damage the regime has done and how protest against the regime is beneficial; 4. the ability to monitor election results independently; and 5. the ability to challenge the election if it indeed is stolen by the incumbent regime: Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik. ‘Favourable Conditions and Electoral Revolution’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.17, No.4 (2006), pp.5–18 (p.6).

Mark R. Bessinger, ‘Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions’, Perspectives on Politics, Vol.5, No.2 (2007), pp.259–76 (p.261).

Marlene Spoerri, ‘Uniting the Opposition in the Run-up to Electoral Revolution: Lessons from Serbia 1990–2000’, Totalitarismus und Demokratie, Vol.5, No.1 (2008), pp.67–85.

Michael McFaul, ‘Transitions from Postcommunism’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.16, No.3 (2005), pp.5–19 (p.9); emphasis added.

Though Asatiani was second on the Burjanadze-Democrats electoral list, his Traditionalist Party quickly parted ways with the Rose revolution administration: Akaki Asatiani, interview with author, Tbilisi, 30 Jan. 2008.

In terms of parliamentary seats, the pro-Shevardnadze group would have been less well represented as the PVT indicated that ‘Industry Will Save Georgia’ with 5.2 per cent of the vote did not overcome the 7 per cent threshold.

Lincoln Mitchell (co-director of NDI 2002–4), interview with author, New York, 19 April 2008. Among prominent New Rights Party leaders who rejected the decision to attend parliament was Levan Gachechiladze. Natelashvili's decision not to support the protests led to numerous defections from his party: ‘Labor Party Leader Supports Shevardnadze’, Civil Georgia, 23 Nov. 2003, available at <http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=5616&search=>, accessed 26 Aug. 2008.

‘New Rights Boycott Parliament’, Civil Georgia, 22 Nov. 2003, available at <http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=5595&search=>, accessed 26 Aug. 2008. The parliamentary quorum, consisting of representatives of For A New Georgia, Revival, and the New Rights Party, was based on the fictitious official results. An intimate, although understandably partisan, perspective on the New Rights Party volte-face is provided by party activist Irakly Areshidze in his book Democracy and Autocracy in Eurasia: Georgia in Transition (East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University Press, 2008), esp. pp.175–7.

Kathleen Collins, Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), p.234.

Ibid., p.236.

Tolekan Ismailova, quoted in ‘Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy’, International Crisis Group Report, (Osh and Brussels: International Crisis Group, 29 Aug. 2002), p.14.

The author attended the inaugural meeting of this alliance at which Bakiev, Beknazarov and Boljurova were present. They met in a small room across from the Communist Party headquarters and apart from a few Kyrgyz journalists there were very few present.

See Graeme P. Herd, ‘Colourful Revolutions and the CIS. “Manufactured” Versus “Managed” Democracy?’, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol.52, No.2 (2005), pp.3–18, and Igor Torbakov, ‘Russian Policy Experts Believe Ukraine's Revolutionary Fervour is Contagious’, Eurasia Insight, 20 Dec. 2004, available at <http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav122004.shtml>, accessed 13 April 2009. The popular mood in Russia was perhaps best captured in the title of one article published in the influential Komsomolskaya Pravda: ‘Are We Losing Kyrgyzstan?’; this corresponded with the popular notion that Russia somehow ‘possessed’ the Central Asian state: Komsomolskaya Pravda, 23 March 2005, p.2.

On 27 January, the official government newspaper Kyrgyz Tuusu published an article accusing the American billionaire of ‘preparing young generations for revolutions’.

‘Ekho Moskvy’ radio, Moscow (in Russian), 13 July 2005, BBC Monitoring.

Giga Chikhladze and Irkali Chikhladze, ‘The Rose Revolution: A Chronicle’, in Karumidze and Wertsch (eds.), Enough!, pp.1–20 (p.8).

Eduard Shevardnadze, interview with Zurab Karumidze, in Karumidze and Wertsch (eds.), Enough!, pp.29–33 (pp.29 and 30); in citing ‘the Yugoslav scenario’, Shevardnadze was alluding to the anti-Milošević protests in Serbia, sometimes referred to as the ‘Bulldozer revolution’.

As quoted in Stefan Wagstyl, ‘Writing on the Wall for Soviet-era Leaders’, Financial Times, 25 March 2005.

Craig S. Smith ‘U.S. Helped to Prepare the Way for Kyrgyzstan's Uprising’, New York Times, 30 March 2005; Craig S. Smith ‘An Uprising Nourished by Western Aid’, International Herald Tribune, 31 March 2005.

Ambassador Young quoted in Marat Kazakpaev, ‘US–Kyrgyzstan: Partners in Different Weight Divisions’, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Vol.3, No.39 (2006), pp.50–54 (p.53). For the full text of the Saakashvili–Yushchenko message see the President of Georgia website, available at <http://www.president.gov.ge/?l=E&m=0&sm=10&st=10&id=28>, accessed 22 Dec. 2007.

Author's recollections of meetings with National Democratic Institute, Open Society Institute and International Crisis Group in Bishkek, March–May 2005.

Kazakpaev, ‘US–Kyrgyzstan’, p.52.

A comprehensive breakdown of US assistance to Kyrgyzstan in 2004 is available at <http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/35990.htm>, accessed 27 Feb. 2008.

In conversation with David Mikosz (then director of IFES in Kyrgyzstan), 28 Feb. 2005; USAID, A Study of Political Party Assistance in Eastern Europe and Eurasia (Washington, DC: USAID, June 2007).

Edil Baisalov, interview with author, Bishkek, 12 March 2005.

Natalia Antelava, ‘United States Cuts Development Aid to Georgia’, Eurasia Insight, 29 Sept. 2003, available at <http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav092903.shtml>, accessed 28 Aug. 2008; ‘US Announced Cut in Aid to Georgia’, Central Asia–Caucasus Analyst, 26 Sept. 2003, available at <http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/1554>, accessed 28 Aug. 2008.

Kakha Lomia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 30 Jan. 2008.

Levan Ramishvili, interview with author, Tbilisi, 28 July 2005.

Kakha Lomia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 30 Jan. 2008.

Ghia Nodia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 28 July 2005.

The US ambassador reflects on his role during the Rose revolution in an interview published in Karumidze and Wertsch (eds.), Enough!, pp.69–77; and former Secretary of State James Baker in the same collection, pp.79–2. The position of the US embassy in Kyrgyzstan was outlined in an interview given by Ambassador Stephen Young to Gennadi Pavliuk, editor-in-chief of the Kyrgyzstan newspaper Argumenty i fakty, on 27 Jan. 2005 and published on 2 Feb. 2005 in that paper.

In 1997, for example, Kyrgyzstan was given a score of 4.25 for governance (1 being perfect, 7 being the worst score), which put it on a par with states such as Bulgaria and Romania; by 2004, this score had dropped to 6, putting Kyrgyzstan alongside Tajikistan and Azerbaijan; Georgia's score dropped from 4.5 to 5.5 during the same period: see Freedom House reports, available at <http://www.freedomhouse.org>, accessed on various dates.

On 11 March 2005, the Paris Club of creditors agreed to write off $124 million owed by the Akaev government and reschedule almost half a billion dollars in debts.

Rina Prijivoit, interview with author, Bishkek, 11 March 2005.

Memorandum signed by ‘Steven Young’ dated 30 December 2004; copy in author's possession.

OSCE membership as it was offered to all post-soviet countries.

Ghia Nodia, ‘Breaking the Mould of Powerlessness: The Meaning of Georgia's Latest Revolution’, in Karumidze and Wertsch (eds.), Enough!, pp.95–104 (p.104).

When I queried the flying of the EU flag while not being an EU member I was told that the flag was also that of the Council of Europe and it is open to all members of this body to fly the flag. This is true; the Council of Europe adopted the 12-star flag in 1955, three decades before the EU.

Author's interviews with Rina Prijivoit, Bishkek, 11 March 2005, and Mambet Abylov (leader of Democratic Party of Development), Bishkek, 10 March 2005.

Bessinger, ‘Structure and Example’, p.271.

‘All power is with the northern side. The southern part is very active because people there are much poorer and they mix with other nations – Uzbeks, Tajiks – this makes them more political. The northern side – you have lots of land and not many are interested in politics’: Mambet Abylov interview, Bishkek 10 March 2005.

Witness the inter-ethnic riots of 1990 in the Kyrgyz city of Osh.

See Valery Tishkov, ‘“Don't Kill Me, I'm a Kyrgyz!”: An Anthropological Analysis of Violence in the Osh Ethnic Conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, Vol.32, No.2 (1995), pp.133–49. According to Akaev, the supreme soviet had wanted land to be allocated to ethnic Kyrgyz only but he had vetoed his and managed to pass a more liberal alternative only on the third attempt after putting his career on the line: ‘Thus the Russians, and other nationalities, think that I not only declare equal rights for all nationalities, but actually defend them’: see Collins, Clan Politics, p.145.

Henry E. Hale, ‘Democracy and Revolution in the Postcommunist World: From Chasing Events to Building Theory’, Working Paper No.24, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security (Washington, DC: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, April 2005), p.2.

Ibid., p.17.

Hale's argument of election cycles does not explain Saakashvili's first-term difficulties. The Georgian president was completing his first term and showed no sign of stepping down, yet he faced a robust challenge from opposition leaders during 2007–8.

Ghia Nodia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 28 July 2005.

Mikheil Saakashvili, The Final Struggle for Georgia (Tbilisi, 2001; in Georgian).

Merab Basilaia, interview with author, Tbilisi, 10 March 2006.

Jonathan Wheatley, Georgia from National Awakening to Rose Revolution: Delayed Transition in the Former Soviet Union (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2005), p.174–5: ‘CEC Refuses to Recount Votes’, Civil Georgia, 7 June 2002, available at <http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=2039&search=>, accessed 26 Aug. 2008; Areshidze, Democracy and Autocracy, pp.69–81.

Areshidze, Democracy and Autocracy, p.92.

Saakashvili, an inspiring orator at his best, constantly challenged the electorate to stand up for their rights. At one rally, he declared: ‘We do not intend to turn back. They are wrong if they a Georgian person has no dignity, there are wrong if they think that the Georgian people are so easily cheated’: 24 Saati, 9 Nov. 2003, p.3.

Merab Basilaya, interview with author, Tbilisi, 10 March 2006.

‘Opposition Leader Azimbek Beknazarov Threatens the Authorities’, interview with Ferghana.ru, 6 March 2008, available at <http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2337>, accessed 21 March 2008.

Lincoln Mitchell, interview with author, New York, 19 April 2008. See also his article ‘What was the Rose Revolution For?: Understanding the Georgian Revolution’, Harvard International Review, 27 Feb. 2008.

See for example Theodor Tudoroiu, ‘Rose, Orange, and Tulip: The Failed Post-Soviet Revolutions’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol.40, No.3, (2007), pp.315–34.

Akaev himself noted this in an article published in Izvestiya six weeks after his defeat, when he wrote that it was ‘laughable’ to call his successors a new political elite for they were mainly ‘those who sprang from the [Communist] party nomenklatura’: Izvestiya, 12 May 2005.

International Crisis Group, ‘Kyrgyzstan On the Edge’, Asia Briefing No.55 (Osh and Brussels: ICG, 9 Nov. 2006).

Additional information

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Donnacha Ó Beacháin

Donnacha Ó Beacháin is Lecturer and Marie Curie Fellow at the School of Law and Government, Dublin City University. Previously, he was a Civic Education Project and Academic Fellowship Program Visiting Fellow in Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. He was an election observer during the 27 February and 13 March votes in Kyrgyzstan that led to the Tulip revolution.