Belarus in the Context of the Neighbourhood Policy: Between the EU and Russia

Abstract

Belarus's location in the geographical heart of Europe places the country in a strategically important position between Russia and the European Union (EU), and the country's history – ancient and modern – reflects this reality. In the period of post-Soviet independence, positive and negative tendencies in the country's relations with those two powers have been encountered. From the inception of Belarus's sovereignty, successive governments have striven to develop a multi-vector foreign policy relationship with the outside world. However, owing to subjective and objective factors, this has not always been possible, resulting in a policy imbalance, under the external pressure of its greater neighbours. The opinions of experts and of the public reflect historical experiences, and manifest a measure of mistrust towards the EU, while also recognizing certain benefits from pursuing a more positive engagement than hitherto. As a sovereign state, Belarus has no need to dissolve its identity either in the EU project or into a greater Russia; rather, it is capable of asserting itself as a sovereign player in the international area, conscious of its national interests and priorities. Only in such circumstances of equal partnership will Belarus be appreciated and recognized in its external milieu.

Notes

For further information see the project's websites: <http://www.aber.ac.uk/interpol/en/research/EKPproject/index.htm> and <www.esrcsocietytoday.ac.uk/ESRCInfoCentre/minisites/widereurope/index.html>, accessed 13 Nov. 2010.

Vladimir Snapkovskii, ‘Vneshnyaya politika Respubliki Belarus’: pervye itogi pervogo desyatiletiya’ [Foreign Policy of the Republic of Belarus: First Results of the First Decade], Belaruskii zhurnal mezhdunarodnofo prava i mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii [Belausian Journal of International Law and International Relations (BJILIR)], No.4 (2000), at <http://evolutio.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=386Itemid51>, accessed 2 Nov. 2010; Vladimir Ulakhovich, Formirovanie osnov vneshnei politki Respubliki Belarus’ 1995–2000 [Formation of the Foundations the Foreign Policy of the Republic of Belarus 1995–2000] (Minsk: Kharvest, 2009); see also Mikhail Pilipenko, Vozniknovenie Belorussii [Genesis of Belorussia] (Minsk: Belarus, 1991).

For further information, see Petr Brigadin, Istoriya Belarusi v kontekste yevropeiskoi istorii [The History of Belarus in the Context of European History] (Minsk: GIUST BGU, 2007); Leanid Lych and Uladzimer Navitsky, Gistoriya kul’turi Belarusi [History of Belarusian Culture] (Minsk: Nkf Ekaperspektiva, 1996); Vatslav Lastovskii, Kratkaya istoriya Belarusi [Brief History of Belarus] (Minsk: Universitetskoe, 1993).

For further information see Lych and Navitsky, Gistoriya kul’turi Belarusi; Entsiklapediya gistorii Belarusi [Encyclopaedia of the History of Belarus], Vol.5 (Minsk: Belaruskaya entsiklapediya, 1999); Venyamin Semyonov-Тyan-Shanskii (ed.), Rossiya. Polnoe geographicheskoe opisanie nashego otechestva [Russia. A Complete Geographical Description of Our Homeland] (Saint-Petersburg: Izdatel'stvo A.F. Devriena, 1905); Alexander Sharapo, ‘Pol'sha–Belarus: istoriya i sovremennost’ [Poland–Belarus: History and the Present], Beloruskii zhurnal mezhdunarodnogo prava i mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii [Belarusian Journal of International Law and International Relations], No.4 (2007), at <http://evolutio.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1238&Itemid=188>, accessed 25 Nov. 2010.

Konstitutsiya Respubliki Belarus’ 1994 goda [The 1994 Constitution of the Republic of Belarus] (Minsk: Amalfeya, 2006).

Uladzimer Ladisev and Petr Brigadin, Pamizh uskhodam i zakhadam: stanaulenne dzyarzhaunasti i teritariyal’nai tselasnastsi Belarusi (1917–1933) [Between East and West: The Establishment of Statehood and Territorial Integrity of Belarus (1917–1933)] (Minsk: Belarusian State University, 2003).

For further information see <http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/>, accessed 19 June 2010.

Belarus i Rossiya: organizatsionno-pravovye osnovy integratsii 1996–2001 [Belarus and Russia: Organizational and Legal Bases of Integration 1996–2001] (Minsk: Polymya, 2001); Belarus i Rossiya: organizatsionno-pravovye osnovy integratsii 2001–2003 [Belarus and Russia: Organizational and Legal Bases of Integration 2001–2003] (Minsk: Polymya, 2004); see also Maria Bredova, ‘Ekonomika stran tsentral’no-vostochnoi Yevropy v 1999 godu’ [Economics of Central–East European Countries in 1999], Reformy: Vchera, segodnya, zavtra: vestnik nauchnoi informatsii, No.9 (2000), pp.23–46; Belarus i Rossiya. 2008: Statisticheskii sbornik [Belarus and Russia. 2008. A statistical collection] (Moscow: Rosstat, 2008).

For further information see <http://www.soyuz.by/ru>, accessed 10 June 2010.

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A nation-wide representative survey was conducted in Oct. 2008; sampling was multi-staged, stratified and random. The sample was representative of the population aged 18+ (urban and rural) by nationality, sex, region, age, and education. The interviews lasted on average 40–50 minutes using local languages for interlocution. The sample representation error was no more than ±3 per cent. The survey included 10 per cent random quality control on completion. One thousand respondents were polled in Belarus. The questionnaire included three thematic blocks addressing (i) foreign policy priorities (EU compared with Russia); (ii) relations with EU (knowledge, perceptions, type of relations); and (iii) the ENP/EaP's effectiveness (knowledge, perceptions, problems, and future). The nation-wide survey is part of the ESRC-funded project hosted by Aberystwyth University, under the leadership of Dr Elena Korosteleva.

For further information see materials in the newspaper SB Belarus’ Segodnya, 21–30 June 2010, available online at <http://sb.by>, accessed 8 July 2010.

Apart from the nation-wide survey, the fieldwork in Belarus was conducted during 2008–9 embracing (i) expert interviews (January 2009); (ii) a study of school essays (March 2009); and (iii) focus groups (May 2009).

(a) 25 interviews with experts consisting of members of parliament, officials of the ministry of foreign affairs (MFA), civil servants, mass media and think-tank representatives, businessmen and members of the opposition. Interviews were semi-structured, in-depth, audio-recorded when permitted, anonymized when requested, and lasted on average 40–50 minutes. Interviews were conducted in Belarusian or Russian. The questionnaire largely mirrored the three thematic blocks of the survey.

(b) A sample of school essays (50 in total) involved four randomly selected secondary schools in Minsk and Mozyr, in which school leavers were requested, without prior warning, to write an essay of a maximum of two pages on pre-set questions. The survey lasted on average 30–45 minutes. Essays were anonymized and computerized. The essays addressed the following three themes: (i) knowledge and perceptions of the EU; (ii) similarities to and differences from the EU; and (iii) future relations with the EU.

(c) Finally, six focus-groups were conducted in Minsk, Gomel and Grodno, and on average consisted of eight participants who were sampled using a snowballing method and a screening questionnaire. Individual groups included (i) students; (ii) females with higher education; (iii) males with higher education; (iv) think-tank representatives with some knowledge of the ENP/EaP; and (v) a control group of mixed origin. Interviews lasted up to 2 hours; and were audio- and video-recorded, using local languages for interlocution. The focus-group scenario mirrored the three thematic blocks used for the survey.

For further information see ‘Vse melko drozhali’ [All shivered], Belorusskii rynok, 2007, No.3 (738) (22–29 Jan.).

Vladimir Ulakhovich, ‘K voprosu o neobkhodimosti razrabotki kontseptsii vneshnei politiki Respubliki Belarus’ [On the Need to Develop the Foreign policy Concept of the Republic of Belarus], Foreign Policy Priorities of the Republic of Belarus, materials of a roundtable (Minsk: Belarusian State University, 2001), pp.39–44.

For further information see the background for decision-making and respective recommendations issued by the Council of Europe (1441), available at <http://assembly.coe.int//Main.asp?link=http://assembly.coe.int/Documents/AdoptedText/TA00/EREC1441.HT>, accessed 21 June 2010.

For further information on the development of EU–Belarus relations, see Elena Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of EU Governance: Belarus’ Response to the ENP’, Contemporary Politics, Vol.15, No.2 (2009), pp.229–45.

For further information see <http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2009/10/09/ic_articles_112_164879/>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.belaruspartisan.org/bp-forte/?page=100&backPage=6&news=13016&newsPage=0>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.rec.gov.by/pdf/All/Kodeks.pdf>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.mininform.gov.by/_modules/_cfiles/files/zakon_cmi_2008_n-427-3.doc>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://izh.kp.ru/online/news/180002/>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://kp.by/daily/24241/440603/>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see the newspaper SB Belarus Segodnya, available at <http://pda.sb.by/post/64544/>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.bankzakonov.com/d2008/time47/lav47251.htm>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.belta.by/ru/all_news/president/Obschestvenno-konsultativnyj-sovet-pri-Administratsii-Prezidenta-Belarusi-provedet-zasedanie-na-baze-PVT_i_514162.html>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.regnum.ru/news/1061927.html>, <http://www.rian.ru/world/20080929/151688724.html>, and <http://news.tut.by/118049.html>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://naviny.by/rubrics/society/2008/11/25/ic_news_116_302019>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see the articles V. Volyanyuk ‘Imidzh vsë’ [Image is everything], SB Belarus Segodnya, 2009, No.47 (23189) (13 March) p.5; and ‘Korzina interesnykh predlozhenii’ [Basket of interesting suggestions], SB Belarus Segodnya, 2009, No.45 (23187) (11 March), at <http://sb.by>, accessed 8 July 2010.

For further information see <http://naviny.by/rubrics/finance/2008/12/31/ic_news_114_303958>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.kgk.gov.by/news/a5688d619683cb37.html, http://www.newsby.org/by/2009/04/12/text6602.htm/2>, and <http://brocompany.by/belbiznes/zayavitprincip>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://naviny.by/rubrics/economic/2010/06/28/ic_news_113_333919> and <http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2009/02/18/ic_news_112_306553>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see N. Romanova ‘Yevropeiskie positivisty’ [European positivists], SB Belarus Segodnya, 2009, No.16 (23158) (29 Jan.) pp.1–2, at <http://sb.by>, accessed 8 July 2010; and <http://pda.sb.by/post/92463/>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see <http://www.president.gov.by/press90610.html>, accessed 30 June 2010.

For further information see I. Kolchenko ‘Khoroshie novosti iz Vechnogo goroda’ [Good News from the Eternal City], SB Belarus Segodnya, 2009, No.79 (23221) (30 April), pp.1–2.

For further information see <http://charter97.org/ru/news/2009/1/15/14039> and <http://charter97.org/ru/news/2009/1/15/14059>, accessed 30 June 2010.

Commission of the European Communities, Eastern Partnership, COM 823 final, Brussels, 3 Dec. 2008.

Statement by Radosław Sikorski, Polish foreign minister, quoted in a blog by ‘Louis Vuitton’ at the Belarusian newspaper SB Belarus Segodnya, 30 Jan. 2009, available at <http://www.sb.by/post/80235>, accessed 29 Nov. 2010.

For further information see SB Belarus Segodnya, 16 Oct. 2009, at <http://pda.sb.by/post/92463>, accessed 30 June 2010.

This included expert interviews and focus groups.

Commission of the European Communities, ‘What the European Union Could Bring to Belarus’ (Brussels, Dec. 2006).

For further information see O. Shestakova, ‘Za god Belarus stala samym aktivnym uchastnikom “Vostochnogo Partnerstva”’ [Over a year Belarus has become the most active participant in the ‘Eastern Partnership’], Komsomolskaya Pravda v Belarusi, 9 April 2010, p.8.

For further information see Sabine Fischer, Back from the Cold? The EU and Belarus in 2009, Chaillot Paper No.119 (Paris: Institute for Security Studies, Nov. 2009); Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of EU Governance’.

Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of EU Governance’.

For further information see Stephen White, Elena Korosteleva and John Lowenhardt (eds.), Postcommunist Belarus (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005); Elena Korosteleva, Colin Lawson and Rosalind Marsh (eds.), Contemporary Belarus (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003).

For further information see details of the recent gas dispute between Belarus and Russia (21 June 2010), which was formally precipitated by disagreements between the two countries in relation to the customs union and its logistics. In reality, however, as many experts suggest, the reasons go far beyond their economic relations, and reflect an increasing rift between the two parties and Belarus's choice of geopolitics. See <http://news.tut.by/173566.html>, accessed 22 June 2010.

For example, the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, who exerts a similarly dictatorial style of governance, has been in power for many years and even chaired the OSCE, yet no one complained; by contrast, Belarus is blamed for its authoritarian regime.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

David Rotman

David Rotman is Professor at the Centre for Sociological and Political Research at the Belarusian State University, Minsk. He has co-ordinated over 100 international projects, and is the author of over 200 publications.

Natalia Veremeeva

Natalia Veremeeva is a senior researcher at the Centre for Sociological and Political Research at the Belarusian State University, Minsk. She has co-ordinated a number of international projects and is the author of over 50 academic publications in sociology.