Belarusian Foreign Policy in a Time of Crisis

Abstract

As with the rest of the world, Belarus has been affected by the global economic crisis. However, the main consequences for the country were less economic, but rather political in nature. Although closely connected with Russia, it was not the spill-over of the crisis, such as the reduction in its hitherto ‘miraculous’ levels of economic growth to almost nothing in one year, that hit Belarus hard. Instead, it was Russia's deliberate politics of ‘pragmatization’, directed at its ‘near abroad’ to facilitate compliance of and interdependence with its neighbours, which dramatically altered Belarus's foreign policy landscape. The two principal corollaries of the global crisis for Belarus therefore included the new and irreversible search (successful or otherwise) for diversification away from Russia, and the reinvigorated sense of sovereignty with which Belarus now attempts to rebuild itself domestically and internationally.

Acknowledgements

I wish to record my gratitude to the ESRC under grant RES-061-25-0001 for the financial support of this project, and to thank Giles Polglase and the journal editors for their helpful comments on an earlier version of the essay.

Notes

A quotation from a speech by Štefan Füle, EU Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, during his visit to Belarus on 9 July 2010; Marina Rakhley, ‘Yevrokomissar Shtefan Fyule: Belarus – samaya bol'shaya taina Evropy’ [Eurocommissioner Štefan Füle: Belarus is Europe's biggest mystery], available at <http://news.tut.by/politics/176210.html>, accessed 9 July 2010; author's translation.

Anatoly Rubinov, member of the Belarusian Academy of Sciences, and a leading national ideologist; quotation from his article ‘Nel'zya zabyvat’, chto zavtra nachinaetsya segodnya' [We must not forget that tomorrow begins today], 6 July 2010, available at <www.sb.by/post/102286>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Leonid Zlotnikov, ‘The Belarusian Economic Miracle – Illusions and Reality’, in Sabine Fischer (ed.), Back From the Cold? The EU and Belarus in 2009, Chaillot Paper No.119 (Nov. 2009) (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies), pp.65–79.

For a comparative overview of Belarus's economic indicators see Irina Yeremeyeva, ‘The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Belarusian Economy’, Electronic Publications of the Pan-European Institute, No.23 (2009), Pan-European Institute, Turku School of Economics, available at <http://www.tse.fi/FI/yksikot/erillislaitokset/pei/Documents/Julkaisut/yeremeyeva_economic_crisis_belarusian_economy_2309%20web.pdf>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Colin Hay, ‘Political Analysis in an Age of Acknowledged Interdependence: Is there a Future for Disciplinarity?’, paper presented at the International Politics Seminar, Aberystwyth University, 3 June 2010.

The extent of the crisis and its consequences depend on the degree of integration into the global economy, structural characteristics and policy responses of individual countries. Belarus appears to be more insulated than others, but also structurally better protected more than others. For further discussion see Yeremeyeva, ‘The Impact of Global Crisis’.

Andrey Serada, ‘IMF Approves Final Stand-by Loan Tranche for Belarus’, 27 March 2010, available at <http://naviny.by/rubrics/english/2010/03/27/ic_articles_259_167232>, accessed 22 July 2010.

For more discussion of Ukraine's situation see Vlad Mikhnenko and Adam Swain, ‘Ukraine's Diverging Space-Economy: The Orange Revolution, Post-Soviet Development Models and Regional Trajectories’, European Urban and Regional Studies, Vol.17, No.2 (2010), pp.141–65.

As follows from Table 1, the IMF initially predicted Belarus's GDP to experience a first time ever ‘negative’ growth (–0.3 per cent) in 2009. Stringently following a new policy of austerity Belarus, however, managed to reverse the trend, and instead produced +0.2 percent positive growth by the first quarter 2010 (see Table 2).

As estimated by Standard and Poor's Economic Analysts, available at <http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245185058824>, accessed 22 July 2010, and The Economist, available at <www.economist.com/indicators>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Margarita Balmaceda, ‘At a Crossroads: The Belarusian–Russian Energy-political Model in Crisis’, in Fischer (ed.), Back from the Cold, pp.79–93 (p.80).

For more information see Elena Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of EU Governance: Belarus’ Response to the European Neighbourhood Policy', Contemporary Politics, Vol.15, No.2 (2009), pp.229–45.

David Marples, ‘Tensions Mounting Between Belarus and Mother Russia’, 15 July 2010, available at <www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Tensions+mounting+between+Belarus+Mother+Russia/3280311/story.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

See in particular Leonid Zaika's comments concerning the plan for ousting Lukashenko from power in the case of Russia's withdrawing its support: Brian Whitmore, ‘Has Moscow Had Enough of Belarus’ Lukashenka?', RL/RFE (19 July 2010), available at <http://www.rferl.org/content/has_Moscow_Had_Enough_of_Belaruss_Lukashenka/2104099.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Alexander Lukashenko, State of the Nation Address, 21 April 2010, available at <www.president.gov.by/press86246>, accessed 22 July 2010; emphasis in original.

The European direction has been considerably hindered by the violent aftermath of the December 2010 presidential election, in consequence of which the EU renewed political sanctions against Belarus, and, at the time of writing, was reassessing the policy of engagement with the country. For more information see Füle's speech on Eastern Partnership and Belarus, 3 March 2011, Bratislava, Global Security Forum, SPEECH/11/148.

A quotation from Lukashenko's speech, in Dmitriy Kopal', ‘Lukashenko dlya Kremlya – uzhe chuzhoi’ [Lukashenko for the Kremlin is already a stranger], 17 July 2010, available at <naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2010/07/17/ic_articles_112_169065>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Alexander Lukashenko, State of the Nation Address, 22 April 2007, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press49984.html#doc>, accessed 22 July 2010.

‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’, 12 July 2008, available at <http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2008/07/204750.shtml>, accessed 24 July 2010.

Nicu Popescu and Andrew Wilson, ‘The Limits of Enlargement-lite: European and the Russian Power in the Troubled Neighbourhood’, policy report (June 2009), European Council on Foreign Relations, available at <http://ecfr.3cdn.net/befa70d12114c3c2b0_hrm6bv2ek.pdf>, accessed 12 Nov. 2009; Sergiu Secrieru, ‘Russian Foreign Policy in Times of Crisis: Greater Compliance or Resilient Self-Confidence?’, policy brief, CEPS, 192/30 (June 2009); Dmitry Trenin, ‘Russia's Spheres of Interests, Not Influence’, Washington Quarterly, Oct. 2009, pp.3–22.

For more details see Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of the EU Governance’.

Denis Melyantsou and Vital Silitski, ‘In the Shadow of Kremlin Stars: Belarus–EU Relations Lack Substance’, working paper, Minsk, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008, available at <http://www.belinstitute.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=151%3Anone&catid=3%3Aeu&Itemid=28&lang=en>, accessed 22 July 2010.

‘Vse melko drozhali’ [All shivered superficially], Belorusskii Rynok, 2007, No.3 (738) (22–9 Jan).

Lukashenko's speech delivered at a meeting with Belarusian students, 12 Feb. 2008, presidential office press release No.49929, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press49929.print.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

For more information see MFA's report ‘Belarus and the CIS countries’, available at <http://www.mfa.gov.by/en/courtiers/cis>, accessed 5 May 2011.

‘Who and How Won Russia–Belarus Hydrocarbon Wars’, 26 Jan. 2010, Khartya 97, available at <http://charter97.org/en/news/2010/1/26/25743/>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Lukashenko's interview to Reuters, 7 Feb. 2007, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press49990.html#doc>, accessed 16 March 2011.

Maryna Nosova, ‘Pyatyi Tanker s Venesuel'skoi neft'yu poidët po novomy marshrutu’ [The fifth tanker of Venezuela's oil will take a new itinerary], available at <http:news.tut.by/economiocs/176455.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Ibid.

A quote from the interview with the first deputy prime minister, Vladimir Semashko, ‘Venesuel'skaya neft: kal'kulyator dlya pervoi postavki’ [Venezuelan oil: a calculator for the first delivery], 28 April 2010, available at <http://news.tut.by/economics/168469.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

The contract was concluded on 29 January 2011, with 81,000 tonnes of Azerbaijan oil delivered for Belarus at the Ukrainian port Yuzhnyi. For more information, see <http://telegraf.by/2011/01/azerbaijan-oil-for-belarus-delivered-in-ukraine.html>, accessed 11 March 2011.

Yuras Karmanau, ‘Putin Offers Belarus Zero Oil Import Duties’, 16 March 2010, available at <http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2010/03/16/putin_offers_belarus_zero_oil_import_duties/>, accessed 22 July 2010.

‘Belarus Disputes the CIS Court's Refusal to Ban Oil Duties Levying’, 29 June 2010, available at <http://telegraf.by/2010/06/belarus_disputes_the_cis_courts_refusal_to_ban_oil_duties_levying>, accessed 22 June 2010.

Oil duties were finally abolished from 1 January 2011 between Belarus and Russia, as part of the Customs Union agreement; however, the price of oil delivery was still subject to fierce negotiation. In 25 January 2011 both sides seemed to have agreed to commit themselves to ‘mutually advantageous prices’, which nevertheless saw few concessions by Russia to Belarus. For more information see <http://telegraf.by/2011/01/oil-contract-with-russia-advantageous-for-belarus-belneftekhim.html>, accessed 11 March 2011. See also Andrei Kozhemyakin, ‘Rossiiskaya neft’ po-prezhnemu ne postupaet v Belarus' [Russian oil, as before, is not entering Belarus], 24 Jan. 2011, available at <http://news.tut.by/economics/212610.html>, accessed 11 March 2011.

Darya Sologub, ‘Welcome to Belarus, Kurmanbek!’, 21 April 2010, available at <http://rt.com/Politics/2010-04-21/baliyev-belarus-asylym.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Interview with Lukashenko, by Tatyana Polezhai and Vladimir Vasil'kov, ‘Lukashenko o Tamozhennom soyuze, vyborakh, Gruzii i zarplatakh’ [Lukashenko on the Customs Union, elections, Georgia and salaries], 16 July 2010, available at <http://news.tut.by/politics/177040.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

‘Russia's Alliance with Belarus May Lead to War’, Pravda, 7 June 2009, available at <http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/07-06-2009/107731-russia_belarus-0>, accessed 22 June 2010.

For more information see <http://naviny.by/rubrics/english/2009/07/20/ic_news_259_314793>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Andrei Kozhemyakhin, ‘Myasnoi konflikt dlya Belarusi – nokdaun, dlya Rossii – ukus komara’ [A meat conflict for Belarus is a knockdown, but for Russia a mosquito bite], 3 July 2010, available at <http://news.tut.by/economics/175592.html>, accessed 23 July 2010.

Andrei Kazhamyakin and Andrei Danilenko, ‘Russia Said to Have Started Substituting Imports from Europe for Belarusian Dry Milk’, 23 July 2010, available at <http://naviny.by/rubrics/english/2010/07/23/ic_articles_259_169409/>, accessed 23 July 2010.

For more information see <http://blogs.euobserver.com/rakhlei/tag/belarus-russia-union/>, accessed 23 July 2010.

President Lukashenko's State of the Nation Address, 21 April 2010, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press86246.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

David Marples, ‘Belarus: Open for Business?’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.7, No.77 (21 April 2010), available at <http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=36292&cHash=51e477a3b8>, accessed 23 July 2010.

Yuras Karmanau, ‘Russia and Belarus Sign $9 billion Nuclear Plant Deal’, Associated Press, 15 March 2011, available at <http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9LVUFBO0.htm>, accessed 16 March 2011.

There are few signs of resolving the issue in 2011, despite some indications of rapprochement between Russia and Belarus and the renewed EU sanctions towards Belarus after the 2010 presidential election. For more information, see David Marples, ‘Russia Increases Pressure on Lukashenko’, Jamestown Foundation, 25 Oct. 2010, available at <http://democraticbelarus.eu/node/10152>, accessed 16 March 2011.

‘Belarus Says It Wants Closer Ties With the EU’, 9 July 2010, available at <http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=176561>, accessed 23 July 2010.

‘Kremlin's Plan of Taming Lukashenka Goes Ahead’, 17 July 2010, available at <http://belarusdigest.com/2010/07/17/kremlins-plan-of-taming-lukashenka-goes-ahead>, accessed 23 July 2010.

Kastus' Lashkevich, ‘Natsyyanal'naya rytoryka prezidenta: pavarot na 180 gradusau?’ [The national rhetoric of the President: a 180-degree U-turn?], 22 July 2010, available at <http://news.tut.by/politics/177624.html>, accessed 23 July 2010.

For more information see <http://www.rec.gov.by/pdf/prb2010/sved21.pdf>, accessed 11 March 2011.

President Lukashenko's State of the Nation Address, 23 May 2006, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press29486>, accessed 23 July 2010.

President Lukashenko's State of the Nation Address, 24 April 2007, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press49984.html#doc>, accessed 22 July 2010.

President Lukashenko's State of the Nation Address, 25 April 2008, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press57289.html#doc>, accessed 22 July 2010.

President Lukashenko's State of the Nation Address, 23 April 2009, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press70397.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Alexander Lukashenko, State of the Nation Address, 21 April 2010, available at <http://www.president.gov.by/press10256.html>, accessed 11 May 2011.

Ibid, pp.30–1.

Nationwide survey, focus-groups, interviews and a study of school essays were conducted in Belarus during 2008–9, as part of the wider ESRC-sponsored project ‘Europeanising or Securitising the Outsiders: Assessing the EU's Partnership-Building Approach with Eastern Europe’ (RES-061-25-0001), under the author's leadership. For more information, see the project's website, available at <http://www.aber.ac.uk/interpol/en/research/EKPproject/index.htm>.

(i) A nationwide survey was conducted in October 2008; sampling was multi-staged, stratified, and random. The sample was representative of the population aged 18+ (urban and rural) by nationality, sex, region, age and education. The interview lasted on average 40–50 minutes using local languages for interlocution. The sample representation error was no more than ±3%. The survey included 10% random quality control on completion. 1,000 respondents were polled in Belarus. The questionnaire included three thematic blocks addressing (i) foreign policy priorities (EU vis-à-vis Russia); (ii) relations with EU (knowledge, perceptions, type of relations); and (iii) the ENP/EaP's effectiveness (knowledge, perceptions, problems and future).

(ii)25 interviews with experts were conducted in January and September 2009. They comprised members of parliament, officials of ministry of foreign affairs (MFA), civil servants, mass media and think-tank representatives, businessmen and members of the opposition. Interviews were semi-structured, in-depth, audio-recorded when permitted, anonymized when requested, and lasted on average 40–50 minutes. Interviews were conducted in Belarusian or Russian. The questionnaire largely mirrored the three thematic blocks of the survey.

(iii)A study of school essays was undertaken in March 2009. The sampling involved four randomly selected secondary schools in Minsk and Mozyr (with 50 essays selected in total), in which school-leavers were requested, without prior warning, to write an essay of a maximum of two pages on pre-set questions. The survey lasted on average 30–45 minutes. Essays were anonymized and computerized. The essays addressed the following three themes: (i) knowledge and perceptions of the EU; (ii) similarities with and differences from the EU; and (iii) future relations with the EU.

(iv)Finally, six focus-groups were conducted in Minsk, Gomel and Grodno in May 2009, and on average comprised eight participants who were sampled using a snowballing method and a screening questionnaire. Individual groups included (i) students; (ii) females with higher education; (iii) males with higher education; (iv) think-tank representatives with some knowledge of the ENP/EaP; and (v) control group of mixed origin. Interviews lasted up to 2 hours; and were audio- and video-recorded, using local languages for interlocution. The focus-group scenario mirrored the three thematic blocks used for the survey.

Interview with Sergei Maskevich, chairman, foreign affairs committee, House of Representatives, Minsk, 22 Sept. 2009.

Lashkevich, ‘Natsyyanal'naya rytoryka prezidenta: pavarot na 180 gradusau?’.

According to the March 2011 post-election survey, the president's rating still remains high among the general population: 44% of the respondents of the nation-wide representative survey stated that they would continue voting for Lukashenko if the elections were tomorrow; 59.3% clearly stated they voted for him in the 2010 December election. The survey was jointly commissioned by Glasgow and Aberystwyth Universities (RES-061-25-0001) and undertaken by the Centre for Political Research, Belarusian State University. These data are also corroborated by other research conducted in Belarus: see, for example, Vital Silitski, ‘The Electorate of the Authority: Then and Now’, Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies, 2 Nov. 2010, available at <http://democraticbelarus.eu/node/10220>, accessed 5 May 2011.

This depiction was seen by the Belarusian foreign ministry as a slogan to attract the attention of foreigners and ‘force them to look at important details’, according to the ministry's spokesman Andrei Savinykh: see ‘Belarus Is Europe's Great Mystery, Foreign Ministry’, Telegraf, 12 Oct. 2010, available at <http://telegraf.by/2010/08/belarus-is-europes-great-mystery-foreign-ministry.html>, accessed 10 May 2010.

Andrei Konchik, ‘Byt’ Belorusom' [To be a Belarusian], 6 May 2010, available at <http://news.tut.by/169254.html>, accessed 22 July 2010.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Elena Korosteleva

Elena Korosteleva is Senior Lecturer in European Politics and Director of the Centre for European Studies at Aberystwyth University. She is the author and editor of a number of books and special issues with a focus on democratization and EU foreign policy, including The EU and its Eastern Neighbours: Towards a More Ambitious Partnership? (2011).