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ABSTRACT
The aim of the article is to trace the evolution of the Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement [M.5.S.]) over the last four national elections (the 2013 and 2018 general elections and the 2014 and 2019 European elections). In particular, our goal is to understand how the electoral support for the party changed, in the context of the broad transformations of the Italian electoral geography. In order to accomplish this goal, we investigate the explanatory role of the spatial dimension on electoral support, specifically in terms of geographical zone and municipality size. The M.5.S. is also compared with the two parties that reported the best results in the last European elections: the Lega (League) and the Partito Democratico (Democratic Party [P.D.]). Our results show that the recent European elections do not represent a turning point in the (electoral and geographical) history of the M.5.S.: its territorial rooting in the south of the country and in medium-sized municipalities are present from the 2014 European elections onwards. Interpretations and implications of these findings are discussed in the conclusions.
RIASSUNTO
L’articolo si propone di ricostruire l’evoluzione del Movimento 5 Stelle (M.5.S.) nel corso delle ultime quattro elezioni di carattere nazionale (le elezioni politiche del 2013 e del 2018, le europee del 2014 e del 2019). In particolare, l’obiettivo del lavoro è comprendere in che misura sia cambiato il sostegno al partito in relazione alle più ampie trasformazioni che hanno caratterizzato la geografia elettorale in Italia. Per rispondere a questo interrogativo, analizziamo il ruolo esplicativo che la dimensione spaziale ha sul sostegno elettorale, in particolare in base alla zona geografica e all’ampiezza del comune di residenza. Il dato relativo al M.5.S. viene inoltre comparato con quello dei due partiti che hanno riportato i risultati migliori nelle ultime elezioni europee: la Lega e il Partito Democratico (P.D.). I risultati mostrano che le recenti elezioni europee non rappresentano un punto di svolta nella storia (elettorale e geografica) del M.5.S., in quanto il suo radicamento al Sud e nei centri di medie dimensioni è già visibile a partire dalle elezioni europee del 2014. Le interpretazioni e le implicazioni di questi risultati vengono discussi nelle conclusioni.
Notes
1. Even though we must state that, at the local level, over the past few years the M.5.S. elected numerous municipal and regional councillors as well as about 50 mayors, including Turin’s and Rome’s.
2. Due to these characteristics Tronconi (Citation2018) stated that the party structure of the M.5.S. reflected Carty’s ‘franchise model’ (2004). Regarding autonomy of local groups, we know that this can vary from case to case, and that in some occasions, especially when there was dissent, the influence of the centre has been relevant.
3. Unlike the Lega, Berlusconi’s party experienced a slow but steady decline in the last four national elections. In particular, in the 2013 general elections the party received 21.6 per cent of the valid votes, 16.8 per cent in the 2014 European elections, 14.2 per cent in the 2018 general elections and 8,8 per cent in the last European elections.
4. Additionally, multivariate analyses were performed in order to test the statistical significance of the independent effects of the two variables and their interaction. For each party, vote was linearly regressed on geopolitical zone (step 1), municipality size (step 1), and their term of interaction (step 2). For each party, results confirmed the significance of both the two main effects and their interaction.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Cecilia Biancalana
Cecilia Biancalana is a researcher (chercheuse F.N.S. senior) at the University of Lausanne. She is currently working on a project on right-wing populist discourse in European cross-border areas. Her research focuses on party change, populism and the relationship between the Internet and politics. Université de Lausanne, Faculté des sciences sociales et politiques Institut d’études politiques, Quartier UNIL-Mouline, Géopolis, CH-1015, Lausanne. Cecilia Biancalana, [email protected], University of Lausanne
Pasquale Colloca
Pasquale Colloca is assistant professor of Sociology at the Department of Education Studies of the University of Bologna. His current research interests are focused on the determinants of populism, and on the role of old and new cleavages in civic and political culture. Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Dell’Educazione ‘Giovanni Maria Bertin’, Via Filippo Re 6, Bologna. Pasquale Colloca, [email protected], University of Bologna