Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

Abstract

A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea-level rise (SLR) will be, society needs to prepare and adapt. This study examines the state of planning for future SLR in Sweden by surveying 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden and interviewing local, regional and national authorities with relevant accountability. The results reveal that there are considerable gaps in current planning for SLR. Almost one-third of municipalities lack guiding planning documents for SLR, and more than two-thirds do not discuss SLR beyond 2100. We argue that the prevailing uncertainty and ambiguity in assessments of future SLR is problematic within a traditional “predict-then-act” paradigm, and that robust approaches, such as scenario planning, can reduce many of these problems.

Keywords:

• sea-level rise
• uncertainties
• planning
• climate change adaptation

Notes

1. Since 1 January 2011 Gotland Municipality (Gotlands kommun) is called Region Gotland.

2. “Översiktsplaner”.

3. County Administrative Boards, i.e. the county government agencies responsible for coordinating development in line with national policies.

4. The recorded interviews are stored by the main author.

5. The locks between Lake Mälaren and the Baltic Sea in Stockholm.