“Alternative futures”: a methodology for integrated sustainability considerations, the case of Nuremberg West, Germany

Abstract

In the context of the desire to steer urban transformation towards sustainability transition, the development of proposals for alternative futures assists policy-makers and practitioners in focusing on impact by organising the various drivers, particularly spatial ones that cause an interactive urban system to transit. This paper presents the methodology that has been developed by the Chair for Urban Development, Munich University of Technology (TUM) as it was working within an inter-disciplinary research team on a project commissioned by the municipality of Nuremberg. The objective of this project was to develop ideas for regenerating the formerly industrial area of Nuremberg West (NW) under the guiding theme of sustainable urban development. This methodology focuses on the development of proposals of positive and possible transformations of NW in the year 2050 based on the analysis of economy, housing and space at various scales and a systematic assessment of trends. These alternative futures became framing and guiding narratives to internalise and anchor the debate in-between the various disciplines involved in this project.

Keywords:

• sustainability transition
• alternative futures
• urban transformation
• area-based regeneration
• Germany

Acknowledgements

This paper is based on a research project commissioned by the municipality of Nuremberg. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. Our students Vivian Bratone and Hannah Veit assisted in the production of Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Funding

The project has been funded by the “Bund-Laender Staedtebaufoerderungsprogramm Stadtumbau West”, in conjunction with the “Strukturprogramm Nuernberg-Fuerth“ of the State of Bavaria.

Notes

1. In addition, 36% of residents of NW are newcomers to the area, having taken up residence within the last three years (as compared to 29% in Nuremberg) while only 33% have resided in NW for more than 10 years (as compared to an average of 41% in Nuremberg).

2. Boesch (1989) explains the difference between these three different concepts as follows. D-space focuses on the physical and morphological aspect of space. Space here is conceived of as a container as a stage set. F-space focuses on the functionalities that space acquires. Space here is not just a container of activities, but has the props that enable actors to function in certain ways. P-space focuses on the processes that occur in space and on the interaction between the different actors. Actors on the stage set whose role-play is facilitated by stage props are the focus here. Boesch, however, does not make the important distinction between the static aspect of d-space and the dynamic nature of f-space and p-space. This is an important distinction. When these three different concepts are operationalised in the analysis, one discovers that d-space can be bound geographically while f-space and p-space flow due to their dynamic and relational components. It is worth noting that, for analytic purposes it is convenient to unbundle the different concepts of space, however, it is important to keep in mind that the intricate working of space is only understood as these different concepts are bundled back together again. Indeed, space that “works” is space in which the three concepts of d-, f- and p-space “work” together, it is space in which actors, find the relevant props and relevant container to perform their act.

3. Of course, experimentation in the urban domain is a costly affair for those who would be voluntarily or involuntarily involved in the experimentation. For politicians and planners costs relate to accountability for heavy sunk capital investments but also the high opportunity costs involved, especially, trust and motivation of people. For local populations, planning intervenes in the social and cultural environment of people who will involuntarily bare the costs of failures and mistakes. The “wicked“ nature of the planning problem means that each planning problem is a unique, but interrelated, symptom of another problem (Rittel and Webber 1973). Because of uniqueness and the impossibility of experimentation, each attempt at a solution is final. Hence, a solution is not “true or false” but, rather, “good or bad” (Rittel and Webber 1973). As mentioned earlier, errors are difficult to correct. Therefore, it only makes sense, to assess the interplay of a portfolio of experiments ahead of implementation with a view at the potential impacts of these experiments on steering towards the course of change required. These potential impacts include also impacts on people, activities, social and cultural aspects.

4. A newspaper headline in the local Nuremberger Abendzeitung (2012) titles “Deputy mayor for economic affairs dreams of Masdar city in Abu Dhabi as a role model for NW”. The Masdar city allegory is ill conceived for many reasons, disproportionality of financial capacities of the municipality, investors, institutional context, social context etcetera. However, this reference to Masdar city is an indication of the potential view at NW as an object that can emulate an other object, one that can be packaged for development, marketing, commodification and other purposes. This view is frequently the case, when an area is declared, usually by a plan-making agency, as fit for regeneration; the term area-based regeneration, carries such connotation. Indeed, the declaration of an area, such as NW, as a base for regeneration focuses the attention of analysis and restricts intervention. Nevertheless, this accentuated focus risks also blurring the view to wider system boundaries. In the case of Masdar city, system-boundaries and area-boundaries are equated. However, this shrinking of system boundaries contradicts the principles of sustainable urban development.

5. Daly argues that un-economic growth makes us poorer not richer, as disutility exceeds utility.As the world becomes full of us and our stuff, it becomes empty of what was there before. To deal with this new pattern of scarcity, scientists need to develop a ‘full world’ economics to replace our traditional empty world economics. (Daly 2005, p. 102)

6. We do not include in our approach considerations of negative transformations. Although such transformations are also possible, we focus only on those transformations that can capitalise on the positive potential of NW, where the existing building stock, infrastructure as well as the qualities of NW can contribute value.