Regional energy futures as decision support in the transition to net zero emissions: North of Tyne case study

Figures & data

Figure 1. The location of the North of Tyne in England – area in red (Rob (Inops) 2018).

Table 1. Number of stakeholders by category in the 2019 and 2021 workshops

Category	Influence	Interest	Examples	2019	2021
Key player	High	High	Policy makers, energy companies	11	5
Context setter	High	Low	Researchers, consultancy	9	2
Subject	Low	High	Industry representation, consumer interest	2	2
Crowd	Low	Low	General public, activist	0	1
			Total	22	10

Table 2. Drivers for change.

Driver	Description
Cost and affordability	Phrases used in relation to cost: “dominates the whole thing”, “cost drives what gets done”. Support for changes needed should be directed by those that need it and not be perceived as making the wealthy wealthier
Equity or fairness	Reflection of people living in different locations with a variety of lifestyles, commitments, abilities and resources means that the energy needs of individuals is diverse
Activism	E.g. the success of the Extinction Rebellion, and how the young obtain their information
Resistance to change	Proposing changes as being better than currently (e.g. switch from coal to gas) can help overcome barriers. But there could be legacy issues for North of Tyne due to previous industrial change and impact that has had. Education can help encourage confidence to change
Preservation	North of Tyne is home to some beautiful landscape and countryside and there is a concern how this could be impacted by renewable energy deployment. There is a trade-off here between natural capital and climate change mitigation

Figure 2. North of Tyne 2019 energy futures 2 × 2 matrix.

Table 3. Summary of North of Tyne 2019 scenario features

Fair Bare Minimum	Minimal Change	Just and Sustainable	Draconian Decarbonisation
High Equity, Low Decarbonisation	Low Equity, Low Decarbonisation	High Equity, High Decarbonisation	Low Equity, High Decarbonisation
Regional prosperity Carbon tax Fuel bill support for those in fuel poverty Rewilding Smart meter roll out	Capitalism persists and monetary driven basis for any decision making Imports heavily relied on including for key employment skills Increased fuel poverty and inequality	Fairness is prioritised Localised development autonomy including development of skills Strong circular economy	Heavy carbon taxation – disproportionate impact on the vulnerable Centralised energy with lots of nuclear power Carbon capture and storage essential

Figure 3. Poll on drivers for change in the energy system in the North of Tyne region.

Figure 4. North of Tyne 2021 energy futures 2 × 2 matrix.

Table 4. Summary of North of Tyne 2021 scenario features.

Local Good Life	Missed Opportunities	Greta Green	Electric Central
Place-based approaches: High Decarbonisation: Low	Place-based approaches: Low Decarbonisation: Low	Place-based approaches: High Decarbonisation: High	Place-based approaches: Low Decarbonisation: High
Devolved powers Regional prosperity 15-minute community Community diversity and increased green spaces Flourishing local businesses Missed net zero targets for the region mainly due to misjudging hydrogen availability	Low levels of funding Wind power increases on and offshore but heating decarbonisation stalls No new technological development Lack of inclusivity – inequality and fuel poverty levels rise Missed net zero targets for the region (and likely nationally too)	Tailored approaches to decarbonisation Businesses attracted to area – inwards investment Battery industry brings prosperity to region Partnerships with clean industries develops skills within region Reforestation and rewilding	Decarbonisation more nationally driven than local – high electrification Levies and taxes on emissions help speed up decarbonisation Communities form groups to take advantage of incentives Prosperity is patchy within the region as the lack of tailoring benefits some and not others

Rob (Inops). 2018. “Location of the North of Tyne Combined Authority Within England.” This file was derived from: North East Combined Authority locator map.svg Ordnance Survey OpenData: Boundaries and England, Wales and Scotland coastline National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Ireland, France and Isle of Man coastlines, Lough Neagh and UK–Republic of Ireland border. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:North_of_Tyne_Combined_Authority_locator_map.svg.

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Data Availability Statement

The authors confirm that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article and its supplementary materials.