The Lure of Ill-Fitting Unemployment Statistics: How South Africa’s Discouraged Work Seekers Disappeared From the Unemployment Rate

Figures & data

Figure 1. Labour Market Evolution since 1994 (%). Source: authors, based on Stats SA databases and statistics publications.

Table 1. October Household survey, 1994–1997: unemployment rates.

Rates of unemployment (%)	1994	1995	1996	1997
Very expanded unemployment rate	38.4	37.4	41.7	42.4
Expanded unemployment rate	30.9	29.1	35.6	37.8
Official unemployment rate	19.2	16.9	21.0	22.9

Source: Statistics South Africa, 1998.

Figure 2. Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender (%). Source: October Household Survey, 1995.

Table 2 Official and Expanded unemployment rates measured by OHS 1994–97, and corollaries.

(ii):	Official unemployment rate measured by OHS 1994–1997, and corollaries
		1994	1995	1996	1997
d	Unemployed measured by OHS: official definition (000s)	1,988	1,644	2,019	2,238
e = b+d	Economically active (000s)	9,959	9,713	9,609	9,787
f = a-e	Not economically active (000s)	10,907	11,612	12,206	12,507
g = 100*d/e	Official unemployment rate ( % )	20.0	16.9	21.0	22.9
h = 100*e/a	Labour force participation rate ( % )	47.7	45.5	44.0	43.9
(iii):	Expanded unemployment rate measured by OHS 1994–97, and corollaries
		1994	1995	1996	1997
i	Unemployed measured by OHS: expanded definition: (000s)	3,672	3,321	4,197	4,551
j = b+i	Economically active (000s)	11,643	11,390	11,787	12,100
k = a-j	Not economically active (000s)	9,223	9,934	10,028	10,195
l = 100*i/j	Expanded unemployment rate (%)	31.5	29.2	35.6	37.6
m = 100*j/a	Labour force participation rate (%)	55.8	53.4	54.0	54.3

Source: Stats SA (1998).

Table 3. Key labour market indicators, as presented in the first QFLS 2018.

	Jan-Mar 2017	Oct-Dec 2017	Jan-Mar 2018	Qtr-to-qtr change	Year-on-year change	Qtr-to-qtr change	Year-on-year change
	Thousand					Per cent
Population 15–64 yrs	37,061	37,525	37,678	153	618	0.4	1.7
Labour Force	22,426	22,051	22,358	307	−68	1.4	−0.3
Employed	16,212	16,171	16,378	206	165	1.3	1.0
Formal sector (Non- agricultural)	11,337	11,244	11,355	111	18	1.0	0.2
Informal sector (Non-agricultural)	2,681	2,808	2,901	93	220	3.3	8.2
Agriculture	875	849	847	−3	−28	−0.3	−3.3
Private households	1,319	1,270	1,275	5	−45	0.4	−3.4
Unemployed	6,214	5,880	5,980	100	−234	1.7	−3.8
Not economically active	14,634	15,474	15,320	−154	686	−1.0	4.7
Discouraged work-seekers	2,277	2,538	2,787	249	510	9.8	22.4
Other (not economically active)	12,357	12,936	12,533	−403	176	−3.1	1.4
Rates (%)
Unemployment rate	27.7	26.7	26.7	0.0	−1.0
Employed / population ratio (Absorption)	43.7	43.1	43.5	0.4	−0.2
Labour force participation rate	60.5	58.8	59.3	0.5	−1.2

Source: Stats SA (2018).

Figure 3. Summary of labour market measures at a glance, Q1: 2018. Source: Stats SA (2018).

Stats SA, 1998. Unemployment and employment in South Africa. Pretoria.

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Stats SA, 2018. Quarterly labour force Survey, 1st quarter. Pretoria.

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