Illusion of control: how internet use generates anti-regime sentiment in authoritarian regimes

Figures & data

Table 1. Included Countries, Year, Internet Controls and Internet Penetration.

Country	Year	Internet Controls (0–100) low-high	Internet Penetration in % of pop. (0–100)
China	2011	83	34.3
Egypt	2013	60	26.4
Egypt	2015	61	33.90
Philippines	2014	27	37
Thailand	2010	61	20.1
Thailand	2014	62	28.94
Vietnam	2010	73	26.55
Malaysia	2011	41	56.3
Nigeria	2013	31	32.8
Nigeria	2014	33	38
Zambia	2014	42	5.4
Uganda	2012	34	13.01
Uganda	2014	34	16.2
Zimbabwe	2012	54	15.7
Zimbabwe	2014	56	18.5
Kenya	2012	29	28
Kenya	2014	28	39
Azerbaijan	2011	48	46
Sudan	2013	63	21
Sudan	2015	65	24.64
Tunisia	2013	41	41.44
Tunisia	2014	39	43.8
Malawi	2014	43	15.4
Jordan	2010	42	26
Jordan	2013	46	37
Libya	2014	48	16.5
Morocco	2013	42	55.42
Morocco	2015	43	56.8
Belarus	2011	69	31.8
Georgia	2014	26	43.3
Kazakhstan	2011	55	43
Russia	2011	52	43

Table 2. Models testing H1.

	Trust in State Institutions	Perceived Level of Democracy	Perceived Level of Corruption Logit	Perceived Fairness of Elections Logit
Internet use	−0.021***	−0.014*	0.059***	−0.077**
	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.020)	(0.033)
Urbanisation	−0.141***	−0.075***	0.143***	−0.168***
	(0.024)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.024)
Gender	0.055***	0.061***	−0.081***	0.171***
	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.023)	(0.023)
Age	0.002***	0.001	−0.002**	0.006***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Education	−0.041***	−0.035***	0.059***	−0.006
	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.012)
Employment	0.004	0.034***	0.038	0.049**
	(0.010)	(0.011)	(0.024)	(0.024)
Political interest	0.037***	0.055***	0.009	0.039***
	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.012)
Elections	−0.103*	−0.102**	−0.022	0.069*
	(0.058)	(0.045)	(0.026)	(0.036)
GDP per capita	0.000	0.000	0.000	−0.001***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Level of democracy	−0.446	−0.356	−0.115	−0.783***
	(0.306)	(0.221)	(0.155)	(0.181)
Transparency	0.158	0.528***	−0.349**	2.271***
	(0.268)	(0.197)	(0.147)	(0.144)
Repression	−0.034	−0.203	0.656***	−0.062
	(0.158)	(0.136)	(0.067)	(0.068)
Internet pen.	0.029*	0.029**	0.005	0.024***
	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.009)	(0.009)
Constant	0.806	0.046	−0.604	−0.254
	−1.355	(0.974)	(0.900)	−1.302
Random Effects Parameters
Var (Internet Use)	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.004
	0.000	0.000	0.002	0.002
Between-country variance	0.769	0.868	0.911	0.911
	0.209	0.318	0.371	0.371
Covariance	−0.017	−0.020	−0.042	−0.042
	0.007	0.011	0.023	0.023
Between-person variance	0.447	0.662
	0.025	0.040
Observations	52,848	49,64	38,046	40,416
Country	21	21	15	16

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Figure 1. Predicted probabilities for thinking government officials are corrupt.

Figure 2. Predictive probabilities for thinking the last elections were free and fair.

Figure 3. Average marginal effect on the perceived level of democracy of internet use for different levels of internet controls.

Figure 4. Average marginal effect on the perceived level of corruption of internet use for different levels of internet controls.

Figure 5. Average marginal effect on the perceived fairness of the elections of internet use for different levels of internet controls.

Table 3. Models testing H2.

	Trust in State Institutions	Perceived Level of Democracy	Perceived Level of Corruption	Perceived Fairness of Elections
			Logit	Logit
Internet Controls	−0.006	−0.012	−0.102***	−0.289***
	(0.060)	(0.041)	(0.024)	(0.043)
Internet use	−0.001	0.040	−0.066***	0.063***
	(0.048)	(0.027)	(0.024)	(0.024)
Internet Controls*Internet use	−0.000	−0.001**	0.002***	−0.003***
	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Urbanisation	−0.141***	−0.076***	0.151***	−0.182***
	(0.024)	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.024)
Gender	0.055***	0.061***	−0.081***	0.171***
	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.023)	(0.023)
Age	0.002***	0.001	−0.002**	0.006***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Education	−0.041***	−0.035***	0.057***	−0.005
	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.012)
Employment	0.004	0.034***	0.045*	0.037
	(0.010)	(0.011)	(0.024)	(0.024)
Political interest	0.037***	0.054***	0.003	0.040***
	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.012)
Elections	−0.104*	−0.101**	0.028	0.157***
	(0.056)	(0.046)	(0.028)	(0.037)
GDP per capita	0.000	0.000	0.000**	−0.001***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Level of democracy	−0.433	−0.332*	0.526***	−0.730***
	(0.275)	(0.187)	(0.188)	(0.181)
Transparency	0.137	0.491*	−0.344**	1.482***
	(0.391)	(0.278)	(0.174)	(0.184)
Repression	−0.049	−0.239*	0.405***	−0.675***
	(0.145)	(0.126)	(0.082)	(0.115)
Internet pen.	0.030	0.032*	−0.010	0.100***
	(0.022)	(0.017)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Constant	1.035	0.613	1.738	16.702***
	−3.816	−2.631	−1.325	−3.343
Random Effects Parameters
Var (Internet Use)	0.001	0.002
	0.000	0.000
Between-country variance	0.891	1.101	0.664	60.947
	0.324	0.668	0.423	−24.851
Covariance	−0.015	−0.012
	0.009	0.016
Between-person variance	0.447	0.662
	0.025	0.040
Observations	52,848	49,64	38,046	40,416
Number of groups	21	21	15	16

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.