The UK Productivity Puzzle: A Survey of the Literature and Expert Views

Figures & data

Figure 1. Annual UK multifactor productivity index (2019 = 100), 1980–2021.

Notes: ONS MFP dataset ID: MFP01, 7 April 2022 release

Table 1. Factors driving lower UK MFP growth post-2007.

	Ranked most important factor by expert	Ranked second most important factor by expert	Ranked third most important factor by expert	Ranked fourth most important factor by expert	Ranked fifth most important factor by expert	Total mentions as one of the five most important factors	Total mentions as a factor explaining UK MFP growth
Private investment	11	1	4	0	1	17	17
Quality of infrastructure	1	5	2	6	1	15	17
Public investment	1	6	2	3	2	14	15
Human capital stock	4	2	2	1	2	11	14
Firm management quality	2	4	2	1	2	11	13
Capital allocation across industries	2	3	1	1	2	9	9
Openness to trade	0	1	1	4	1	7	7
Labour allocation across industries	3	0	2	1	0	6	8
Regulatory and competition policy	0	2	2	0	0	4	4
Other factors	0	1	2	0	0	3	3
Government fiscal policy	1	0	0	1	0	2	3
Mix of firm ownership structures	0	0	2	0	0	2	3
Government monetary policy	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Source: Economic Insight survey of academic experts, N = 26.

Table 2. Prospects for future UK MFP growth.

	Next 12 months (2024)	Next 5 years (2024–2028)	Next 10 years (2024–2033)
<0.00%	4	1	1
0.00–0.10%	13	7	1
0.11–0.50%	6	10	9
0.51–1.00%	0	5	8
1.01–1.50%	0	0	2
>1.50%	0	0	0
Not sure	3	3	5

Source: Economic Insight survey of academic experts, N = 26.