Attempting to predict withdrawal from higher education using demographic, psychological and educational measures

Abstract

Demographic, psychological and secondary level examination measures were obtained at the start of undergraduate courses in an attempt to predict first‐year higher education (HE) withdrawal. As usual, withdrawal was greatest for males. Overall, intrinsic motivation and independent study expectations were better predictors of withdrawal than extrinsic motivation, lack of direction, and psychological health (anxiety and depression) variables. While 23% of the variance in continuance/withdrawal was explained, only 13% of variance was explained when gender and faculty of study were controlled. It is concluded that prediction of withdrawal is easier once students' behaviours and performance within HE are apparent than it is at the outset of their HE careers. Nevertheless, some suggestions for interventions are made, centring upon the current findings for intrinsic motivation and independent study expectations.

Notes

1. Variables were standardised to allow direct comparison of logistic regression coefficients.

2. The Block χ² test fulfils a similar function to the F‐test assessing the significance of R ²Change in multiple regression.

3. The Model χ² test performs a function similar to the ANOVA used to assess the significance of the overall predictivity of a model in multiple regression.

4. In preference to reporting the more esoteric Nagelkerke R ² value output by SPSS, values of R ² analogous to R ² in multiple regression analysis were obtained by using predicted scores at each stage of the analysis as predictors of Status in an ordinary linear regression analysis (Tabachnick & Fidell, 2001).